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Epidemiologically optimal static networks from temporal network data.

ABSTRACT: One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets.

SUBMITTER: Holme P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3715509 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiologically optimal static networks from temporal network data.

Holme Petter P

PLoS computational biology 20130718 7

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures m ...[more]

PMID: 23874184

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Project description:Estimation of functional connectivity (FC) has become an increasingly powerful tool for investigating healthy and abnormal brain function. Static connectivity, in particular, has played a large part in guiding conclusions from the majority of resting-state functional MRI studies. However, accumulating evidence points to the presence of temporal fluctuations in FC, leading to increasing interest in estimating FC as a dynamic quantity. One central issue that has arisen in this new view of connectivity is the dramatic increase in complexity caused by dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) estimation. To computationally handle this increased complexity, a limited set of dFC properties, primarily the mean and variance, have generally been considered. Additionally, it remains unclear how to integrate the increased information from dFC into pattern recognition techniques for subject-level prediction. In this study, we propose an approach to address these two issues based on a large number of previously unexplored temporal and spectral features of dynamic functional connectivity. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate time-varying patterns of functional connectivity between resting-state networks. Time-frequency analysis is then performed on dFC estimates, and a large number of previously unexplored temporal and spectral features drawn from signal processing literature are extracted for dFC estimates. We apply the investigated features to two neurologic populations of interest, healthy controls and patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, and show that the proposed approach leads to substantial increases in predictive performance compared to both traditional estimates of static connectivity as well as current approaches to dFC. Variable importance is assessed and shows that there are several quantities that can be extracted from dFC signal which are more informative than the traditional mean or variance of dFC. This work illuminates many previously unexplored facets of the dynamic properties of functional connectivity between resting-state networks, and provides a platform for dynamic functional connectivity analysis that facilitates its usage as an investigative measure for healthy as well as abnormal brain function.

Dataset Information

Epidemiologically optimal static networks from temporal network data.

Publications

Epidemiologically optimal static networks from temporal network data.

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