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Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.

ABSTRACT: Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplete observations that are available in a few hours after the main shocks. We demonstrate the method's utility by retrospective early forecasting of the aftershock activity of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake of M9.0 in Japan. Furthermore, we compare the results by the real-time data with the compiled preliminary data to examine robustness of the present method for the aftershocks of a recent inland earthquake in Japan.

SUBMITTER: Omi T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3715793 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock.

Omi Takahiro T Ogata Yosihiko Y Hirata Yoshito Y Aihara Kazuyuki K

Scientific reports 20130101

Forecasting the aftershock probability has been performed by the authorities to mitigate hazards in the disaster area after a main shock. However, despite the fact that most of large aftershocks occur within a day from the main shock, the operational forecasting has been very difficult during this time-period due to incomplete recording of early aftershocks. Here we propose a real-time method for efficiently forecasting the occurrence rates of potential aftershocks using systematically incomplet ...[more]

PMID: 23860594

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