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Improving transferability of introduced species' distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed.

ABSTRACT: The utility of species distribution models for applications in invasion and global change biology is critically dependent on their transferability between regions or points in time, respectively. We introduce two methods that aim to improve the transferability of presence-only models: density-based occurrence thinning and performance-based predictor selection. We evaluate the effect of these methods along with the impact of the choice of model complexity and geographic background on the transferability of a species distribution model between geographic regions. Our multifactorial experiment focuses on the notorious invasive seaweed Caulerpa cylindracea (previously Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea) and uses Maxent, a commonly used presence-only modeling technique. We show that model transferability is markedly improved by appropriate predictor selection, with occurrence thinning, model complexity and background choice having relatively minor effects. The data shows that, if available, occurrence records from the native and invaded regions should be combined as this leads to models with high predictive power while reducing the sensitivity to choices made in the modeling process. The inferred distribution model of Caulerpa cylindracea shows the potential for this species to further spread along the coasts of Western Europe, western Africa and the south coast of Australia.

SUBMITTER: Verbruggen H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3732097 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Improving transferability of introduced species' distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed.

Verbruggen Heroen H Tyberghein Lennert L Belton Gareth S GS Mineur Frederic F Jueterbock Alexander A Hoarau Galice G Gurgel C Frederico D CF De Clerck Olivier O

PloS one 20130628 6

The utility of species distribution models for applications in invasion and global change biology is critically dependent on their transferability between regions or points in time, respectively. We introduce two methods that aim to improve the transferability of presence-only models: density-based occurrence thinning and performance-based predictor selection. We evaluate the effect of these methods along with the impact of the choice of model complexity and geographic background on the transfer ...[more]

PMID: 23950789

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Project description:Aim:Codium fragile, an invasive seaweed, has spread widely during the last century, impacting on local seaweed communities through competition and disturbance. Early detection of C. fragile can help on its control and management. Environmental DNA (eDNA) has proved successful for early detection of aquatic invasive species but its potential use for seaweed remains understudied. We used a species-specific eDNA qPCR approach to investigate the spatial distribution, abundance, and coexistence of the invasive C. fragile and three native Codium species (Codium vermilara, Codium tomentosum, and Codium decorticatum) in the Cantabrian Sea. Location:Bay of Biscay, Northern Atlantic Coast of the Iberian Peninsula; two ports, a beach and a rocky cliff. Methods:We designed species-specific primers in barcoding regions targeting short fragments of the rbcL gene for the invasive Codium species, and the elongation factor Tu (tufA) gene for the native species, to assess their spatial and seasonal distributions using quantitative real-time PCR in samples collected during summer, autumn, and winter. Results:We found seasonal differences in the presence of the invasive Codium fragile and two of the native Codium species, but did not detect C. decorticatum at any point. Species distribution patterns produced with qPCR targeting species-specific eDNA coincided with the known distribution based on previous conventional sampling, with a seasonal alternance of C. fragile and C. vermilara, and a marked dominance of invasive C. fragile in ports, which are known hotspots for invasive species. Main conclusions:Our results demonstrate the utility of using eDNA for early detection and monitoring of invasive seaweed. Native and invasive Codium spp. displayed significant seasonal and spatial differentiation that needs to be taken into account in risk management. Regular monitoring of ports and adjacent areas using eDNA should help to assess the potential expansion of invasive Codium and the need for management interventions to avoid the displacement of native seaweed.

Dataset Information

Improving transferability of introduced species' distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed.

Publications

Improving transferability of introduced species' distribution models: new tools to forecast the spread of a highly invasive seaweed.

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