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Alternative dietary indices both strongly predict risk of chronic disease.

ABSTRACT: The Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005) measures adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, but the association between the HEI-2005 and risk of chronic disease is not known. The Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), which is based on foods and nutrients predictive of chronic disease risk, was associated inversely with chronic disease risk previously. We updated the AHEI, including additional dietary factors involved in the development of chronic disease, and assessed the associations between the AHEI-2010 and the HEI-2005 and risk of major chronic disease prospectively among 71,495 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 41,029 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study who were free of chronic disease at baseline. During ?24 y of follow-up, we documented 26,759 and 15,558 incident chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, or nontrauma death) among women and men, respectively. The RR (95% CI) of chronic disease comparing the highest with the lowest quintile was 0.84 (0.81, 0.87) for the HEI-2005 and 0.81 (0.77, 0.85) for the AHEI-2010. The AHEI-2010 and HEI-2005 were most strongly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and diabetes, and for both outcomes the AHEI-2010 was more strongly associated with risk than the HEI-2005 (P-difference = 0.002 and <0.001, respectively). The 2 indices were similarly associated with risk of stroke and cancer. These findings suggest that closer adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines may lower risk of major chronic disease. However, the AHEI-2010, which included additional dietary information, was more strongly associated with chronic disease risk, particularly CHD and diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Chiuve SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3738221 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Alternative dietary indices both strongly predict risk of chronic disease.

Chiuve Stephanie E SE Fung Teresa T TT Rimm Eric B EB Hu Frank B FB McCullough Marjorie L ML Wang Molin M Stampfer Meir J MJ Willett Walter C WC

The Journal of nutrition 20120418 6

The Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005) measures adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, but the association between the HEI-2005 and risk of chronic disease is not known. The Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), which is based on foods and nutrients predictive of chronic disease risk, was associated inversely with chronic disease risk previously. We updated the AHEI, including additional dietary factors involved in the development of chronic disease, and assessed the associ ...[more]

PMID: 22513989

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Project description:BackgroundSeveral different indices summarize patient comorbidity using health care data. An accurate index can be used to describe the risk profile of patients, and as an adjustment factor in analyses. How well these indices perform in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not well known.ObjectiveAssess the performance of 5 comorbidity indices at predicting mortality in 3 different patient groups with CKD: incident kidney transplant recipients, maintenance dialysis patients, and individuals with low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).DesignPopulation-based retrospective cohort study.SettingOntario, Canada, between 2004 and 2014.PatientsIndividuals at the time they first received a kidney transplant, received maintenance dialysis, or were confirmed to have an eGFR less than 45 mL/min per 1.73m2.MeasurementsFive comorbidity indices: Charlson comorbidity index, end-stage renal disease-modified Charlson comorbidity index, Johns Hopkins' Aggregated Diagnosis Groups score, Elixhauser score, and Wright-Khan index. Our primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality.MethodsComorbidity indices were estimated using information in the prior 2 years. Each group was randomly divided 100 times into derivation and validation samples. Model discrimination was assessed using median c-statistics from logistic regression models, and calibration was evaluated graphically.ResultsWe identified 4111 kidney transplant recipients, 23 897 individuals receiving maintenance dialysis, and 181 425 individuals with a low eGFR. Within 1 year, 108 (2.6%), 4179 (17.5%), and 17 898 (9.9%) in each group had died, respectively. In the validation sample, model discrimination was inadequate with median c-statistics less than 0.7 for all 5 comorbidity indices for all 3 groups. Calibration was also poor for all models.LimitationsThe study used administrative health care data so there is the potential for misclassification. Indices were modeled as continuous scores as opposed to indicators for individual conditions to limit overfitting.ConclusionsExisting comorbidity indices do not accurately predict 1-year mortality in patients with CKD. Current indices could be modified with additional risk factors to improve their performance in CKD, or a new index could be developed for this population.

Project description:Importance:Predicting chronic disease incidence for the population provides a comprehensive picture to health policy makers of their jurisdictions' overall future chronic disease burden. However, no population-based risk algorithm exists for estimating the risk of first major chronic disease. Objective:To develop and validate the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT), a population risk algorithm that predicts the 10-year incidence of the first major chronic disease in the adult population. Design, Setting, and Participants:In this cohort study, CDPoRT was developed and validated with 6 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey, linked to administrative data from January 2000 to December 2014. Development and internal validation (bootstrap and split sample) of CDPoRT occurred in Ontario, Canada, from June 2018 to April 2019 followed by external validation in Manitoba from May 2019 to July 2019. The study cohorts included 133?991 adults (?20 years) representative of the Ontario and Manitoba populations who did not have a history of major chronic disease. Exposures:Predictors were routinely collected risk factors from the Canadian Community Health Survey, such as sociodemographic factors (eg, age), modifiable lifestyle risk factors (ie, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, unhealthy diet, and physical inactivity), and other health-related factors (eg, body mass index). Main Outcomes and Measures:Six major chronic diseases were considered, as follows: congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, myocardial infarction, lung cancer, and stroke. Sex-specific CDPoRT algorithms were developed with a Weibull model. Model performance was evaluated with measures of overall predictive performance (eg, Brier score), discrimination (eg, Harrell C index), and calibration (eg, calibration curves). Results:The Ontario cohort (n?=?118?747) was younger (mean [SD] age, 45.6 [16.1] vs 46.3 [16.4] years), had more immigrants (23?808 [20.0%] vs 1417 [10.7%]), and had a lower mean (SD) body mass index (26.9 [5.1] vs 27.7 [5.4]) than the Manitoba cohort (n?=?13?244). During development, the full and parsimonious CDPoRT models had similar Brier scores (women, 0.087; men, 0.091), Harrell C index values (women, 0.779; men, 0.783), and calibration curves. A simple version consisting of cigarette smoking, age, and body mass index performed slightly worse than the other versions (eg, Brier score for women, 0.088; for men, 0.092). Internal validation showed consistent performance across models, and CDPoRT performed well during external validation. For example, the female parsimonious version had C index values for bootstrap, split sample, and external validation of 0.778, 0.776, and 0.752, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, CDPoRT provided accurate, population-based risk estimates for the first major chronic disease.

Project description:Background and aimsVarious prediction indices based on the single time point observation have been proposed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little was known about disease trajectory as a predictor of future exacerbations. Our study explored the association between disease trajectory and future exacerbations, and validated the predictive value of the modified and simplified short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).MethodsThis study was a multicenter, prospective observational study. Patients with COPD were recruited into our study and followed up for 18 months. The modified CID (CID-C) was defined as a decrease of 100 mL in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or suffering exacerbations, or increase of 2 units in COPD Assessment Test (CAT) during the first 6 months follow-up. Simplified CID was defined when excluding CAT from the CID-C model.ResultsA total of 127 patients were enrolled in our final analysis. Compared with patients without exacerbations during the period of the 6th to the 18th month, patients with exacerbations were more likely to have frequent short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months (2.14 versus 0.21, p < 0.001). The short-term exacerbations were the best predictor for future exacerbations [odds ratio (OR): 13.25; 95% confidence interval: 5.62-34.67; p < 0.001], followed by the history of exacerbation before study entry, short-term changes in FEV1 and CAT. CID-C and Simplified CID were both significantly associated with exacerbations (OR: 7.14 and 9.74, both p < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the Simplified CID had slightly better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than CID-C (0.754 versus 0.695, p = 0.02).ConclusionDisease trajectory, including both the CID-C and the Simplified CID had significant predictive value for future exacerbations.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Project description:BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is common, and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and end-stage renal disease, which are potentially preventable through early identification and treatment of individuals at risk. Although risk factors for occurrence and progression of CKD have been identified, their utility for CKD risk stratification through prediction models remains unclear. We critically assessed risk models to predict CKD and its progression, and evaluated their suitability for clinical use.Methods and findingsWe systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase (1 January 1980 to 20 June 2012). Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development, validation, or impact assessment of a model constructed to predict the occurrence/presence of CKD or progression to advanced stages. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, discrimination, calibration, and reclassification performance of models, as well as validation and impact analyses. We included 26 publications reporting on 30 CKD occurrence prediction risk scores and 17 CKD progression prediction risk scores. The vast majority of CKD risk models had acceptable-to-good discriminatory performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve>0.70) in the derivation sample. Calibration was less commonly assessed, but overall was found to be acceptable. Only eight CKD occurrence and five CKD progression risk models have been externally validated, displaying modest-to-acceptable discrimination. Whether novel biomarkers of CKD (circulatory or genetic) can improve prediction largely remains unclear, and impact studies of CKD prediction models have not yet been conducted. Limitations of risk models include the lack of ethnic diversity in derivation samples, and the scarcity of validation studies. The review is limited by the lack of an agreed-on system for rating prediction models, and the difficulty of assessing publication bias.ConclusionsThe development and clinical application of renal risk scores is in its infancy; however, the discriminatory performance of existing tools is acceptable. The effect of using these models in practice is still to be explored.

Project description:The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing and dietary interventions may be a strategy to reduce this burden. In the general population, higher potassium intake is considered protective for cardiovascular health. Due to the risk of hyperkalemia in CKD, limiting potassium intake is often recommended. However, given that poor cardiovascular function can cause kidney damage, following a low-potassium diet may be deleterious for patients with CKD. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize the evidence on dietary potassium intake and CKD progression. Multiple databases were searched on 7 June 2019 and data were managed with Covidence. No intervention trials met the inclusion criteria. Eleven observational studies met the inclusion criteria (10 post hoc analyses, 1 retrospective cohort), representing 49,573 stage 1-5 predialysis patients with CKD from 41 different countries. Of the 11 studies, 6 studies reported exclusively on early CKD (stage 1-2), 4 studies separately reported analyses on both early and late (stage 3-5) CKD, and 2 studies reported exclusively on late CKD. A total of 9 studies reported risk of disease progression in early CKD; in 4 studies high potassium intake was associated with lower risk, while in 2 studies the low intake showed a higher progression of risk, and 3 studies reported no relation. In late CKD, results are mixed: 2 studies suggested benefit of higher potassium intake and 1 suggested benefit of lower potassium intake, whereas 3 studies were neutral. These results should be interpreted with caution, as considerations preventing firm conclusions include 1) the overall low range of dietary potassium intake, with all studies reporting an average intake below the 2004 Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiatives guidelines, and 2) the method used to assess potassium intake in most studies (i.e., urine) in late stages of CKD. Ideally, well-controlled intervention studies are needed to understand how dietary potassium intake is linked to CKD progression.

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Alternative dietary indices both strongly predict risk of chronic disease.

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Alternative dietary indices both strongly predict risk of chronic disease.

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