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Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

ABSTRACT: Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals and such variation most likely decreases the extinction risk of vector populations in stochastic environments. We developed a simplified multi-stage vector-borne SI epidemiological model to investigate how vector risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity influence the prevalence and evolution of a parasite. This model is based on available knowledge on triatomine biodemography, but its conceptual outcomes apply, to a certain extent, to other vector-borne diseases. Model comparisons between deterministic and stochastic settings led to the conclusion that environmental stochasticity, vector risk-spreading strategies (in particular an increase in the length and variability of development time) and their interaction have drastic consequences on vector population dynamics, disease prevalence, and the relative short-term evolution of parasite virulence. Our work shows that stochastic environments and associated risk-spreading strategies can increase the prevalence of vector-borne diseases and favor the invasion of more virulent parasite strains on relatively short evolutionary timescales. This study raises new questions and challenges in a context of increasingly unpredictable environmental variations as a result of global climate change and human interventions such as habitat destruction or vector control.

SUBMITTER: Pelosse P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3738595 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

Pelosse Perrine P Kribs-Zaleta Christopher M CM Ginoux Marine M Rabinovich Jorge E JE Gourbière Sébastien S Menu Frédéric F

PloS one 20130808 8

Insects are known to display strategies that spread the risk of encountering unfavorable conditions, thereby decreasing the extinction probability of genetic lineages in unpredictable environments. To what extent these strategies influence the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases in stochastic environments is largely unknown. In triatomines, the vectors of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas' disease, juvenile development time varies between individuals ...[more]

PMID: 23951018

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Project description:The global burden of vector-borne diseases accounts for more than 17% of infectious diseases in humans. Rapid global expansion of previously obscure pathogens, such as Zika and chikungunya viruses in recent years highlights the importance of understanding how anthropogenic changes influence emergence and spillover of vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has been identified as one anthropogenic change that influences vector-borne disease prevalence, although contrasting pictures of the effects of deforestation on vector-borne disease transmission have been reported. These conflicting findings are likely attributable to the inherent complexity of vector-borne disease systems, which involve diverse groups of vectors, hosts and pathogens, depending on geography. The current study represents a quantitative exploration of the link between deforestation and mosquitoes, the most important common constituents of vector-borne disease systems. Analysis of data compiled from published field studies for 87 mosquito species from 12 countries revealed that about half of the species (52.9%) were associated with deforested habitats. Of these species that are favored by deforestation, a much larger percentage (56.5%) are confirmed vectors of human pathogens, compared to those negatively impacted by deforestation (27.5%). Moreover, species that serve as vectors of multiple human pathogens were all favored by deforestation, including Anopheles bancroftii, Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles farauti, Anopheles funestus s.l., Anopheles gambiae s.l., Anopheles subpictus, Aedes aegypti, Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, and Culex quinquefasciatus. Our quantitative analysis of vector and non-vector species, demonstrates that the net effect of deforestation favors mosquitoes that serve as vectors of human disease, while the obverse holds true for non-vectors species. These results begin to unify our understanding of the relationship between deforestation and vector mosquitoes, an important step in quantifying how land use change, specifically deforestation, affects human risk of vector-borne disease.

Dataset Information

Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

Publications

Influence of vectors' risk-spreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vector-borne diseases: the example of Chagas' disease.

Similar Datasets

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