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Bayesian tests of topology hypotheses with an example from diving beetles.

ABSTRACT: We review Bayesian approaches to model testing in general and to the assessment of topological hypotheses in particular. We show that the standard way of setting up Bayes factor tests of the monophyly of a group, or the placement of a sample sequence in a known reference tree, can be misleading. The reason for this is related to the well-known dependency of Bayes factors on model-specific priors. Specifically, when testing tree hypotheses it is important that each hypothesis is associated with an appropriate tree space in the prior. This can be achieved by using appropriately constrained searches or by filtering trees in the posterior sample, but in a more elaborate way than typically implemented. If it is difficult to find the appropriate tree sets to be contrasted, then the posterior model odds may be more informative than the Bayes factor. We illustrate the recommended techniques using an empirical test case addressing the issue of whether two genera of diving beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae), Suphrodytes and Hydroporus, should be synonymized. Our refined Bayes factor tests, in contrast to standard analyses, show that there is strong support for Suphrodytes nesting inside Hydroporus, and the genera are therefore synonymized.

SUBMITTER: Bergsten J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3739882 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian tests of topology hypotheses with an example from diving beetles.

Bergsten Johannes J Nilsson Anders N AN Ronquist Fredrik F

Systematic biology 20130428 5

We review Bayesian approaches to model testing in general and to the assessment of topological hypotheses in particular. We show that the standard way of setting up Bayes factor tests of the monophyly of a group, or the placement of a sample sequence in a known reference tree, can be misleading. The reason for this is related to the well-known dependency of Bayes factors on model-specific priors. Specifically, when testing tree hypotheses it is important that each hypothesis is associated with a ...[more]

PMID: 23628960

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Project description:High species diversity and endemism within Madagascar is mainly the result of species radiations following colonization from nearby continents or islands. Most of the endemic taxa are thought to be descendants of a single or small number of colonizers that arrived from Africa sometime during the Cenozoic and gave rise to highly diverse groups. This pattern is largely based on vertebrates and a small number of invertebrate groups. Knowledge of the evolutionary history of aquatic beetles on Madagascar is lacking, even though this species-rich group is often a dominant part of invertebrate freshwater communities in both standing and running water. Here we focus on large bodied diving beetles of the tribes Hydaticini and Cybistrini. Our aims with this study were to answer the following questions 1) How many colonization events does the present Malagasy fauna originate from? 2) Did any colonization event lead to a species radiation? 3) Where did the colonizers come from--Africa or Asia--and has there been any out-of-Madagascar event? 4) When did these events occur and were they concentrated to any particular time interval? Our results suggest that neither in Hydaticini nor in Cybistrini was there a single case of two or more endemic species forming a monophyletic group. The biogeographical analysis indicated different colonization histories for the two tribes. Cybistrini required at least eight separate colonization events, including the non-endemic species, all comparatively recent except the only lotic (running water) living Cybister operosus with an inferred colonization at 29 Ma. In Hydaticini the Madagascan endemics were spread out across the tree, often occupying basal positions in different species groups. The biogeographical analyses therefore postulated the very bold hypothesis of a Madagascan origin at a very deep basal node within Hydaticus and multiple out-of-Madagascar dispersal events. This hypothesis needs to be tested with equally intense taxon sampling of mainland Africa as for Madagascar.

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Bayesian tests of topology hypotheses with an example from diving beetles.

Publications

Bayesian tests of topology hypotheses with an example from diving beetles.

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