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Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham's 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number (R0) (median: 16.0, range: 1.9 to 550.9) and the proportion of unrecognized cases (mean: 96.3%, SD: 0.04%). Heterogeneity in model-generated R0 estimates was consistent with variability in cholera dynamics described by contemporary investigators and may represent differences in the nature of cholera spread. While subject to limitations associated with measurement and the absence of microbiological diagnosis, historical epidemic data are a potentially rich source for understanding pathogen dynamics in the absence of control measures, particularly when used in conjunction with simple and readily interpretable mathematical models.

SUBMITTER: Chan CH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3749991 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

Chan Christina H CH Tuite Ashleigh R AR Fisman David N DN

PloS one 20130822 8

Despite nearly two centuries of study, the fundamental transmission dynamic properties of cholera remain incompletely characterized. We used historical time-series data on the spread of cholera in twelve European and North American cities during the second cholera pandemic, as reported in Amariah Brigham's 1832 A Treatise on Epidemic Cholera, to parameterize simple mathematical models of cholera transmission. Richards growth models were used to derive estimates of the basic reproductive number ( ...[more]

PMID: 23991117

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Project description:PurposeRedlining was a discriminatory housing policy in the United States that began in 1933 and denoted neighborhoods with high proportions of Black individuals as "undesirable" and a high risk for lending, which therefore excluded people from obtaining traditional insured mortgages to purchase a home. Simultaneously, realtors discouraged Black individuals from purchasing homes in predominantly non-Black neighborhoods. This resulted in decreased home ownership and wealth accumulation among Black individuals and neighborhoods with high proportions of Black individuals. This study investigated rates of visual impairment and blindness (VIB) in neighborhoods that at one time were graded for redlining.DesignSecondary data analysis of American Community Survey data and historical grades for redlining.ParticipantsUnited States census tracts (CTs) from 2010 with historical grades for redlining.MethodsOne-way analysis of variance, Kruskal-Wallis test, chi-square test, and logistic regression modeling.Main outcome measuresThe main outcome was CT percentage of residents reporting VIB and the association with historical grades for redlining. Grades were converted to numeric values (1 to 4, with higher values indicating worse grade) and aggregated over a CT based on the distribution of grades within to obtain a redlining score. Logistic regression was used to model the effect of redlining on the probability of having VIB.ResultsEleven thousand six hundred sixty-eight CTs were analyzed. Logistic regression found that a 1-unit increase in average redlining score was associated with a 13.4% increased odds of VIB after controlling for CT measures of age, sex, people of color (any non-White race), state, and population size (odds ratio [OR], 1.134; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.131-1.138; P < 0.001). Similar results were observed for an additional model that adjusted for the estimated percentage of Black residents within a CT (OR, 1.180; 95% CI, 1.177-1.183; P < 0.001).ConclusionsHistorical government-sanctioned residential segregation through redlining was found to be associated with higher proportions of people living with VIB in these neighborhoods today. Understanding how neighborhood segregation impacts eye health is important for planning improved mechanisms of eye care delivery to mitigate health disparities.Financial disclosure(s)Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Dataset Information

Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

Publications

Historical epidemiology of the second cholera pandemic: relevance to present day disease dynamics.

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