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Indirect estimation of the comparative treatment effect in pharmacogenomic subgroups.

ABSTRACT: Evidence of clinical utility is a key issue in translating pharmacogenomics into clinical practice. Appropriately designed randomized controlled trials generally provide the most robust evidence of the clinical utility, but often only data from a pharmacogenomic association study are available. This paper details a method for reframing the results of pharmacogenomic association studies in terms of the comparative treatment effect for a pharmacogenomic subgroup to provide greater insight into the likely clinical utility of a pharmacogenomic marker, its' likely cost effectiveness, and the value of undertaking the further (often expensive) research required for translation into clinical practice. The method is based on the law of total probability, which relates marginal and conditional probability. It takes as inputs: the prevalence of the pharmacogenomic marker in the patient group of interest, prognostic effect of the pharmacogenomic marker based on observational association studies, and the unstratified comparative treatment effect based on one or more conventional randomized controlled trials. The critical assumption is that of exchangeability across the included studies. The method is demonstrated using a case study of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C19 genotype and the anti-platelet agent clopidogrel. Indirect subgroup analysis provided insight into relationship between the clinical utility of genotyping CYP2C19 and the risk ratio of cardiovascular outcomes between CYP2C19 genotypes for individuals using clopidogrel. In this case study the indirect and direct estimates of the treatment effect for the cytochrome P450 2C19 subgroups were similar. In general, however, indirect estimates are likely to have substantially greater risk of bias than an equivalent direct estimate.

SUBMITTER: Sorich MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3754999 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:OnabotulinumtoxinA and mirabegron have recently gained marketing authorisation to treat symptoms of overactive bladder (OAB).To evaluate the relative efficacy of mirabegron and onabotulinumtoxinA in patients with idiopathic OAB.Network meta-analysis.A search of 9 electronic databases, review documents, guidelines and websites.Randomised trials comparing any licensed dose of onabotulinumtoxinA or mirabegron with each other, anticholinergic drugs or placebo were eligible (19 randomised trials were identified). 1 reviewer extracted data from the studies and a second reviewer checked the data. Candidate trials were assessed for similarity and networks were developed for each outcome. Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted using both fixed-effects and random-effects models. When there were differences in mean baseline values between mirabegron and onabotulinumtoxinA trials they were adjusted for using network meta-regression (NMR).No studies directly comparing onabotulinumtoxinA to mirabegron were identified. A network was created for each of the 7 outcomes, with 3-9 studies included in each individual network. The trials included in the networks were broadly similar. Patients in the onabotulinumtoxinA trials had more urinary incontinence and urgency episodes at baseline than patients in the mirabegron trials and these differences were adjusted for using NMR. Both onabotulinumtoxinA and mirabegron were more efficacious than placebo at reducing the frequency of urinary incontinence, urgency, urination and nocturia. OnabotulinumtoxinA was more efficacious than mirabegron (50 and 25 mg) in completely resolving daily episodes of urinary incontinence and urgency and in reducing the frequency of urinary incontinence, urgency and urination. NMR supported the results of the network meta-analysis.In the absence of head-to-head trials comparing onabotulinumtoxinA to mirabegron, this indirect comparison indicates that onabotulinumtoxinA may be superior to mirabegron in improving symptoms of urinary incontinence, urgency and urinary frequency in patients with idiopathic OAB.

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Indirect estimation of the comparative treatment effect in pharmacogenomic subgroups.

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