Dataset Information

Predictability of persistent frequent attendance in primary care: a temporal and geographical validation study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Frequent attenders are patients who visit their general practitioner exceptionally frequently. Frequent attendance is usually transitory, but some frequent attenders become persistent. Clinically, prediction of persistent frequent attendance is useful to target treatment at underlying diseases or problems. Scientifically it is useful for the selection of high-risk populations for trials. We previously developed a model to predict which frequent attenders become persistent.

Aim

To validate an existing prediction model for persistent frequent attendance that uses information solely from General Practitioners' electronic medical records.

Methods

We applied the existing model (N?=?3,045, 2003-2005) to a later time frame (2009-2011) in the original derivation network (N?=?4,032, temporal validation) and to patients of another network (SMILE; 2007-2009, N?=?5,462, temporal and geographical validation). Model improvement was studied by adding three new predictors (presence of medically unexplained problems, prescriptions of psychoactive drugs and antibiotics). Finally, we derived a model on the three data sets combined (N?=?12,539). We expressed discrimination using histograms of the predicted values and the concordance-statistic (c-statistic) and calibration using the calibration slope (1?=?ideal) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests.

Results

The existing model (c-statistic 0.67) discriminated moderately with predicted values between 7.5 and 50 percent and c-statistics of 0.62 and 0.63, for validation in the original network and SMILE network, respectively. Calibration (0.99 originally) was better in SMILE than in the original network (slopes 0.84 and 0.65, respectively). Adding information on the three new predictors did not importantly improve the model (c-statistics 0.64 and 0.63, respectively). Performance of the model based on the combined data was similar (c-statistic 0.65).

Conclusion

This external validation study showed that persistent frequent attenders can be prospectively identified moderately well using data solely from patients' electronic medical records.

SUBMITTER: Smits FT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3764153 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predictability of persistent frequent attendance in primary care: a temporal and geographical validation study.

Smits Frans T FT Brouwer Henk J HJ Zwinderman Aeilko H AH van den Akker Marjan M van Steenkiste Ben B Mohrs Jacob J Schene Aart H AH van Weert Henk C HC Ter Riet Gerben G

PloS one 20130905 9

<h4>Background</h4>Frequent attenders are patients who visit their general practitioner exceptionally frequently. Frequent attendance is usually transitory, but some frequent attenders become persistent. Clinically, prediction of persistent frequent attendance is useful to target treatment at underlying diseases or problems. Scientifically it is useful for the selection of high-risk populations for trials. We previously developed a model to predict which frequent attenders become persistent.<h4> ...[more]

PMID: 24039870

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Project description:BackgroundOne significant health policy challenge in many European countries at present is developing strategies to deal with the increase in patient attendance at Out-of-Hours care (OOHC), whether this is at OOHC-Centres in primary care settings or hospital emergency departments (ED). FAs (FAs) presenting in OOHC are a known challenge and previous studies have shown that FAs present more often with psychological problems and psychiatric comorbidities rather than severe physical complaints. FAs may be also contributing to the rising workload in OOHC-Centres in primary care. The aim of this study was to determine attendance frequencies and health problem presentation patterns for patients with and without somatoform disorders (ICD-10 F45 diagnoses) in OOHC-Centres in primary care. Some of these somatoform disorders may have a psychiatric character. Moreover, we wanted to compare health care utilization patterns (pharmacotherapy and hospitalizations) between these patients groups.MethodsRoutine OOHC data from a large German statutory health insurance company in the federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg were evaluated. 3,813,398 health insured persons were included in the data set from 2014. The data were initially made available for our study group in order to evaluate a comprehensive evaluation programme in German primary care, the "Hausarztzentrierte Versorgung" (HZV), loosely translated as "family doctor coordinated care". We used the ICD-10 codes F45.0-F45.9 in regular care to identify patients with somatoform disorders and compared their health care utilization patterns (attendance rates, diagnoses, prescriptions, hospitalization rates) in OOHC to patients without somatoform disorders. Attendance rates were calculated with multivariable regression models in order to adjust for age, gender, comorbidities and for participation in the HZV intervention.Results350,528 patients (9.2%) of the 3,813,398 insured persons had an F45-diagnosis. In comparison with the whole study-sample, patients with an F45-diagnosis were on average seven years older (51.7 vs. 44.0 years; p<0,0001) and the percentage of women was significantly higher (70.1% vs 53.3%; p<0,0001). In OOHC, as opposed to normal office hours, the adjusted rate of patients with an F45-diagnosis was 60.6% higher (adjusted for age, gender and co-morbidity) than in the general study-sample. Accordingly, in OOHC, prescriptions for antidepressants, hypnotics, anxiolytics but also opioids were significantly higher than in the general study population i.e. those without F45- diagnoses. However, an F45 diagnosis was only made in 3.45% of all F45 patients seen in OOHC in 2014.ConclusionsPatients with somatoform disorders were more FAs in both regular office hours and in OOHC in primary care settings. In OOHC, they are normally not identified as such because the somatoform illness is secondary to other acutely presenting symptoms such as pain. While it is acknowledged that it is difficult to make an exact diagnosis in this complex group of somatoform disorders in an OOHC setting, it is still important to develop continuing education programmes for medical staff working in OOHC, to support effective recognition and response to the specific needs of this complex patient group.

Project description:BACKGROUND: General Practitioners spend a disproportionate amount of time on frequent attenders. So far, trials on the effect of interventions on frequent attenders have shown negative results. However, these trials were conducted in short-term frequent attenders. It would be more reasonable to target intervention at persistent frequent attenders. Typical characteristics of persistent frequent attenders, as opposed to 1-year frequent attenders and non-frequent attenders, may generate hypotheses regarding modifiable factors on which new randomized trials may be designed. METHODS: We used the data of all 28,860 adult patients from 5 primary healthcare centers. Frequent attenders were patients whose attendance rate ranked in the (age and sex adjusted) top 10 percent during 1 year (1-year frequent attenders) or 3 years (persistent frequent attenders). All other patients on the register over the 3-year period were referred to as non-frequent attenders. The lists of medical problems coded by the GP using the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC) were used to assess morbidity.First, we determined which proportion of 1-year frequent attenders was still a frequent attender during the next two consecutive years and calculated the GPs' workload for these patients. Second, we compared morbidity and number of prescriptions for non-frequent attenders, 1-year frequent attenders and persistent frequent attenders. RESULTS: Of all 1-year frequent attenders, 15.4% became a persistent frequent attender equal to 1.6% of all patients. The 1-year frequent attenders (3,045; 10.6%) were responsible for 39% of the face-to-face consultations; the 470 patients who would become persistent frequent attenders (1.6%) were responsible for 8% of all consultations in 2003. Persistent frequent attenders presented more social problems, more psychiatric problems and medically unexplained physical symptoms, but also more chronic somatic diseases (especially diabetes). They received more prescriptions for psychotropic medication. CONCLUSION: One out of every seven 1-year-frequent attenders (15.4%) becomes a persistent frequent attender. Compared with non-frequent attenders, and 1-year frequent attenders, persistent frequent attenders consume more health care and are diagnosed not only with more somatic diseases but especially more social problems, psychiatric problems and medically unexplained physical symptoms.

Project description:BackgroundOver the last decade, a trend towards high utilisation of primary maternity care was observed in high-income countries. There is limited research with contradictory results regarding frequent attendance (FA) and perinatal outcomes in midwifery care. Therefore, this study examined possible associations between FA in midwifery care and obstetric interventions and perinatal outcomes.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed in a medium-sized midwifery-led care practice in an urban region in the Netherlands. Frequent attenders (FAs) were categorised using the Kotelchuck-Index Revised. Regression analyses were executed to examine the relationship between FAs and perinatal outcomes, stratified by antenatal referral to an obstetrician. Main outcomes of interest were Apgar score ≤ 7 and perinatal death, birth weight, mode of delivery, haemorrhage, place of birth, transfer during labour, and a requirement for pain relief.ResultsThe study included 1015 women, 239 (24%) FAs and 776 (76%) non-FAs, 538 (53%) were not referred and 447 (47%) were referred to an obstetrician. In the non-referred group, FA was significantly associated with a requirement for pain relief (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.24-3.17) and duration of dilatation (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.04-1.38). In the referred group, FA was significantly associated with induction of labour (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.17-2.95), ruptured perineum (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.95) and episiotomy (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24-0.95). In the non-referred and the referred group, FA was not associated with the other obstetric and neonatal outcomes. Due to small numbers, we could not measure possible associations of FA with an Apgar score ≤ 7 and perinatal death.ConclusionIn our study, perinatal outcomes differed by FA and antenatal referral to an obstetrician. In the non-referred group, FA was significantly associated with medical pain relief and duration of dilatation. In the referred group, FA was significantly associated with induction of labour, ruptured perineum, and episiotomy. Further research with a larger study population is needed to look for a possible association between FA and primary adverse birth outcomes such as perinatal mortality.

Project description:BackgroundFollow-up with a primary care provider within 1-2 weeks of discharge from hospital has been associated with reduced readmissions. We sought to determine appointment attendance with primary care providers postdischarge and identify factors associated with attendance.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study involving general medicine patients who had been discharged from hospital between Sept. 1, 2014, and Dec. 30, 2015, from 2 Ontario academic hospitals, and who had been supported by a transitional care specialist and advised to see a primary care provider within 1 week. Attendance was determined by self-report during follow-up by telephone. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess whether patient factors (e.g., comorbidity) or system factors (e.g., booking the appointment before discharge) predicted attendance. We used Cox proportional hazards modelling to assess whether attendance predicted readmission within 30 days.ResultsOf the 214 patients included in our study, 35% (n = 75) attended a primary care appointment within 1 week of discharge; 52% (n = 124) of patients attended an appointment within 2 weeks. After adjusting for age, sex and comorbidity, significant predictors of attendance were booking the appointment before discharge (odds ratio [OR] 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-4.40), familiarity with the primary care provider (OR 5.43, 95% CI 2.25-14.1) and inclusion of a reminder, callback number and appointment time in the discharge summary (OR 15.3, 95% CI 2.09-326). Predictors of nonattendance were the presence of a home support worker (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17-0.80) and a booked specialist appointment before discharge (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18-0.73). Attendance was not associated with reduced readmissions (hazard ratio 0.66, 95% CI 0.40-1.09).InterpretationTimely follow-up with PCPs postdischarge remains challenging. Efforts to improve attendance should focus on reinforcing need for follow-up and coordinating follow-up before discharge, particularly for those poorly connected with the health care system.

Dataset Information

Predictability of persistent frequent attendance in primary care: a temporal and geographical validation study.

Background

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Predictability of persistent frequent attendance in primary care: a temporal and geographical validation study.

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