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Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: Identification of the optimal vaccine allocation for the control of influenza requires consideration of uncertainty arising from numerous unpredictable factors, including viral evolution and diversity within the human population's immunity as well as variation in vaccine efficacy. The best policy must account for diverse potential outcomes based on these uncertainties. Here we used a mathematical model parametrized with survey-based contact data, demographic, and epidemiological data from seasonal influenza in the United States to determine the optimal vaccine allocation for five outcome measures: infections, hospitalizations, deaths, years of life loss, and contingent valuation. We incorporated uncertainty of epidemiological parameters and derive probability distributions of optimal age- and risk-specific allocation of vaccine. Our analysis demonstrated that previous recommendations of targeting schoolchildren (ages 5-17 years) and young adults (18-44 years) are generally robust in the face of uncertainty. However, when the outcome measure is to minimize deaths, years of life loss, or contingent valuation, uncertainty analysis identified scenarios under which it is optimal to target people at high risk for complications, even when vaccine are in abundance.

SUBMITTER: Ndeffo Mbah ML

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3764605 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty.

Ndeffo Mbah Martial L ML Medlock Jan J Meyers Lauren Ancel LA Galvani Alison P AP Townsend Jeffrey P JP

Vaccine 20130516 30

Identification of the optimal vaccine allocation for the control of influenza requires consideration of uncertainty arising from numerous unpredictable factors, including viral evolution and diversity within the human population's immunity as well as variation in vaccine efficacy. The best policy must account for diverse potential outcomes based on these uncertainties. Here we used a mathematical model parametrized with survey-based contact data, demographic, and epidemiological data from season ...[more]

PMID: 23684837

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Project description:ObjectivesThe present study aimed to estimate the influenza vaccination coverage rate in Beijing, China, and identify its determinants in older and younger adults.MethodsA survey was conducted among Chinese adults using a self-administered, anonymous questionnaire in May-June 2015. The main outcome was seasonal influenza vaccination uptake. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify factors associated with uptake.ResultsA total of 7106 participants completed the questionnaire. The overall coverage rate was 20.6% (95% CI 19.7% to 21.5%) in the 2014/2015 influenza season. Lower education (older adults: OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1; younger adults: OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.6), having a chronic illness (older adults: OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.4; younger adults: OR 1.4; 95% CI 1.2 to 1.7) and recommendations from healthcare workers (older adults: OR 5.4; 95% CI 3.9 to 7.4; younger adults: OR 4.5; 95% CI 3.7 to 5.4) were positively associated with uptake; perceived side effects of vaccination had a negative impact (older adults: OR 0.6; 95% CI 0.4 to 0.7; younger adults: OR 0.8; 95% CI 0.7 to 1.0). Perceived susceptibility to influenza (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.0) and awareness of the free influenza vaccine policy (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.2 to 2.9) were only associated with vaccine uptake in older adults, while perceived effectiveness of vaccination (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.7 to 2.8) was only a predictor for younger adults. Older adults were more likely to receive recommendations from healthcare professionals and perceive the severity of seasonal influenza, and less likely to worry about side effects of vaccination.ConclusionThe influenza vaccination coverage rate was relatively low in Beijing. Apart from free vaccinations for older adults, age disparity in the rate between older and younger adults (48.7% vs 16.0%) may be explained by differing professional recommendations and public perceptions. Vaccination campaigns targeting increasing professional recommendations and public perceptions should be implemented in the coming years.

Dataset Information

Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty.

Publications

Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty.

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