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Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

ABSTRACT: Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation's irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been pumped and another 39% will be depleted over the next 50 y given existing trends. Recharge supplies 15% of current pumping and would take an average of 500-1,300 y to completely refill a depleted aquifer. Significant declines in the region's pumping rates will occur over the next 15-20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production. Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15-20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping. Scenarios evaluate incremental reductions of current pumping by 20-80%, the latter rate approaching natural recharge. Findings substantiate that saving more water today would result in increased net production due to projected future increases in crop water use efficiencies. Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability.

SUBMITTER: Steward DR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3773770 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

Steward David R DR Bruss Paul J PJ Yang Xiaoying X Staggenborg Scott A SA Welch Stephen M SM Apley Michael D MD

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130826 37

Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation's irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle p ...[more]

PMID: 23980153

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Project description:BACKGROUND: The diverse microbial populations that inhabit pristine aquifers are known to catalyze critical in situ biogeochemical reactions, yet little is known about how the structure and diversity of this subsurface community correlates with and impacts upon groundwater chemistry. Herein we examine 8,786 bacterial and 8,166 archaeal 16S rRNA gene sequences from an array of monitoring wells in the Mahomet aquifer of east-central Illinois. Using multivariate statistical analyses we provide a comparative analysis of the relationship between groundwater chemistry and the microbial communities attached to aquifer sediment along with those suspended in groundwater. RESULTS: Statistical analyses of 16S rRNA gene sequences showed a clear distinction between attached and suspended communities; with iron-reducing bacteria far more abundant in attached samples than suspended, while archaeal clones related to groups associated with anaerobic methane oxidation and deep subsurface gold mines (ANME-2D and SAGMEG-1, respectively) distinguished the suspended community from the attached. Within the attached bacterial community, cloned sequences most closely related to the sulfate-reducing Desulfobacter and Desulfobulbus genera represented 20% of the bacterial community in wells where the concentration of sulfate in groundwater was high (> 0.2 mM), compared to only 3% in wells with less sulfate. Sequences related to the genus Geobacter, a genus containing ferric-iron reducers, were of nearly equal abundance (15%) to the sulfate reducers under high sulfate conditions, however their relative abundance increased to 34% when sulfate concentrations were?<?0.03 mM. Also, in areas where sulfate concentrations were <0.03 mM, archaeal 16S rRNA gene sequences similar to those found in methanogens such as Methanosarcina and Methanosaeta comprised 73-80% of the community, and dissolved CH4 ranged between 220 and 1240 ?M in these groundwaters. In contrast, methanogens (and their product, CH4) were nearly absent in samples collected from groundwater samples with?>?0.2 mM sulfate. In the suspended fraction of wells where the concentration of sulfate was between 0.03 and 0.2 mM, the archaeal community was dominated by sequences most closely related to the ANME-2D, a group of archaea known for anaerobically oxidizing methane. Based on available energy (?GA) estimations, results varied little for both sulfate reduction and methanogenesis throughout all wells studied, but could favor anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) in wells containing minimal sulfate and dihydrogen, suggesting AOM coupled with H2-oxidizing organisms such as sulfate or iron reducers could be an important pathway occurring in the Mahomet aquifer. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the results show several distinct factors control the composition of microbial communities in the Mahomet aquifer. Bacteria that respire insoluble substrates such as iron oxides, i.e. Geobacter, comprise a greater abundance of the attached community than the suspended regardless of groundwater chemistry. Differences in community structure driven by the concentration of sulfate point to a clear link between the availability of substrate and the abundance of certain functional groups, particularly iron reducers, sulfate reducers, methanogens, and methanotrophs. Integrating both geochemical and microbiological observations suggest that the relationships between these functional groups could be driven in part by mutualism, especially between ferric-iron and sulfate reducers.

Dataset Information

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

Publications

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

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