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A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

ABSTRACT: Despite remarkable gains in life expectancy and declining mortality in the 21st century, in many places mostly in developing countries, adult mortality has increased in part due to HIV/AIDS or continued abject poverty levels. Moreover many factors including behavioural, socio-economic and demographic variables work simultaneously to impact on risk of mortality. Understanding risk factors of adult mortality is crucial towards designing appropriate public health interventions. In this paper we proposed a structured additive two-part random effects regression model for adult mortality data. Our proposal assumed two processes: (i) whether death occurred in the household (prevalence part), and (ii) number of reported deaths, if death did occur (severity part). The proposed model specification therefore consisted of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) with correlated random effects that permitted structured and unstructured spatial components at regional level. Specifically, the first part assumed a GLMM with a logistic link and the second part explored a count model following either a Poisson or negative binomial distribution. The model was used to analyse adult mortality data of 25,793 individuals from the 2006/2007 Namibian DHS data. Inference is based on the Bayesian framework with appropriate priors discussed.

SUBMITTER: Kazembe LN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3774685 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

Kazembe Lawrence N LN

PloS one 20130916 9

Despite remarkable gains in life expectancy and declining mortality in the 21st century, in many places mostly in developing countries, adult mortality has increased in part due to HIV/AIDS or continued abject poverty levels. Moreover many factors including behavioural, socio-economic and demographic variables work simultaneously to impact on risk of mortality. Understanding risk factors of adult mortality is crucial towards designing appropriate public health interventions. In this paper we pro ...[more]

PMID: 24066052

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Project description:The child mortality rate is an essential measurement of socioeconomic growth and the quality of life in Ethiopia which is one among the six countries that account for half of the global under-five deaths. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the potential risk factors for child mortality in Ethiopia. Data for the study was drawn from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data conducted in 2016. A two-part random effects regression model was employed to identify the associated predictors of child mortality. The study found that 53.3% of mothers did not face any child death, while 46.7% lost at least one. Vaccinated child (IRR = 0.735, 95%CI: 0.647, 0.834), were currently using contraceptive (IRR = 0.885, 95%CI: 0.814, 0.962), who had antenatal care visit four or more times visit (IRR = 0.841, 95%CI: 0.737,0.960), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.695, 95%CI: 0.594, 0.814), mothers who completed their primary school(IRR = 0.785, 95%CI: 0.713, 0.864), mothers who have birth interval greater than 36 months (IRR = 0.728, 95%CI: 0.676, 0.783), where the age of the mother at first birth is greater than 16 years(IRR = 0.711, 95%CI: 0.674, 0.750) associated with the small number of child death. While multiple births (IRR = 1.355, 95%CI: 1.249, 1.471, four and above birth order (IRR = 1.487, 95%CI: 1.373, 1.612) and had working father (IRR = 1.125, 95%CI: 1.049, 1.206) associated with a higher number of child death. The variance components for the random effects showed significant variation of child mortality between enumeration areas. Policies and programs aimed at addressing enumeration area variations in child mortality need to be formulated and their implementation must be strongly pursued. Efforts are also needed to extend educational programmers aimed at educating mothers on the benefits of the antenatal checkup before first birth, spacing their birth interval, having their child vaccinated, and selecting a safe place of delivery to reduce child mortality.

Project description:IntroductionMonitoring clinical safety of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is critical to minimize risk as VMMC programs for HIV prevention are scaled. This cross-sectional analysis describes the adverse event (AE) profile of a large-scale, routine VMMC program and identifies factors associated with the development, severity, and timing of AEs to provide recommendations for program quality improvement.Materials and methodsFrom 2015-2018 there were 28,990 circumcisions performed in International Training and Education Center for Health (I-TECH) supported regions of Namibia in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Social Services. Two routine follow-up visits after VMMC were scheduled to identify clients with AEs. Summary statistics were used to describe characteristics of all VMMC clients and the subset who experienced an AE. We used chi-square tests to evaluate associations between AE timing, patient age, and other patient and AE characteristics. We used a logistic regression model to explore associations between patient characteristics and AE severity.ResultsOf the 498 clients with AEs (AE rate of 1.7%), 40 (8%) occurred ≤2 days, 262 (53%) occurred 3-7 days, 161 (32%) between day 8 and 14, and 35 (7%) were ≥15 days post-VMMC. Early AEs (on or before day 2) tended to be severe and categorized as bleeding, while infections were the most common AEs occurring later (p<0.001). Younger clients (aged 10-14 years) experienced more infections, whereas older clients experienced more bleeding (p<0.001).ConclusionsAlmost 40% of AEs occurred after the second follow-up visit, of which 179 (91%) were infections. Improvements in pre-surgical and post-surgical counselling and post-operative educational materials encouraging clients to seek care at any time, adoption of alternative follow-up methods, and the addition of a third follow-up visit may improve outcomes for patients. Enhancing post-surgical counselling and emphasizing wound care for younger VMMC clients and their caregivers could help mitigate elevated risk of infection.

Dataset Information

A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

Publications

A Bayesian two part model applied to analyze risk factors of adult mortality with application to data from Namibia.

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