Dataset Information

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO.

Methods

Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates.

Results

Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest.

Conclusion

Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

SUBMITTER: Kent DM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3775694 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Individuals with migraine are at higher risk for stroke, but the mechanism has not been established. On the basis of the association between migraine and intracardiac right-to-left shunt, it has been proposed that stroke in migraineurs could be caused by a paradoxical embolus passing through a patent foramen ovale (PFO) or pulmonary arteriovenous malformation. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of PFO with right-to-left shunt in patients who presented with cryptogenic stroke and had a history of migraine. METHODS:Patients between 18 and 60 years old who presented with an ischemic stroke were characterized based on ASCOD phenotyping (atherosclerosis; small-vessel disease; cardiac pathology; other causes; dissection). A migraine diagnosis was identified by reviewing physician notes, and frequent aura was defined if present in at least 50% of attacks. A PFO with right-to-left shunt diagnosis was identified by the presence of a positive bubble contrast study with either transcranial Doppler, transthoracic, or transesophageal echocardiography. RESULTS:Of the 712 patients who presented with ischemic stroke, 127 (18%) were diagnosed as cryptogenic; 68 patients had adequate testing for PFO and a documented migraine history. The prevalence of PFO in patients with cryptogenic stroke without migraine was elevated (59%) compared with the general population (18%). Patients with both cryptogenic stroke and migraine had a higher prevalence of PFO (79%). In patients with cryptogenic stroke who had migraine with frequent aura, the prevalence of PFO was 93%. Only 5 patients (4%) had a history compatible with migrainous infarction. CONCLUSIONS:In patients with cryptogenic stroke who have migraine, there is a high prevalence (79%) of PFO with right-to-left shunt. The timing of the stroke in migraineurs is usually not related to a migraine attack. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the mechanism of stroke in migraineurs is most likely because of a paradoxical embolus. Future cryptogenic stroke classification schemes should consider including PFO as a separate etiologic category.