Dataset Information

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage.

Results

All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year.

Conclusions

Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART.

SUBMITTER: Dodd PJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3775764 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

Dodd Peter J PJ Knight Gwenan M GM Lawn Stephen D SD Corbett Elizabeth L EL White Richard G RG

PloS one 20130917 9

<h4>Objective</h4>To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage.<h4>Results</h4>All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would in ...[more]

PMID: 24069418

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Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) is known to reduce tuberculosis (TB) incidence among people living with HIV (PLWH). However, studies describing the impact of long-term ART and CD4 count recovery on TB incidence remain scarce due to limited follow up in previous studies. We evaluated TB incidence in a long-term cohort of PLWH on ART in Thailand.MethodsWe conducted an analysis of PLWH aged ≥ 18 years who started ART between 1996 and December 2020. Participants were followed up every 6 months for routine HIV care. TB risk factors, body mass index (BMI), physical examination and full differential blood counts were evaluated at each clinic visit, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA every 12 months. Participants diagnosed with TB > 3 months after starting ART were classified as incident cases. Time to event models with death as a competing risk, were used to derive the TB cumulative incidence function (CIF) after ART initiation, and assess time-updated factors associated with incident TB using a six month lag.ResultsA total of 2,636 PLWH contributing 24,229 person years (PY) of follow-up on ART were analysed. Median age was 32.0 (IQR 27.4-37.6) years; 67.5% were male. Median CD4 cell count at ART initiation was 264 (IQR 167-379) cells/mm3 and median follow-up duration was 7.6 (IQR 1.9-15.7) years. During follow-up, 113 PLWH developed TB. The probability of incident TB was 0.7%, 1.7%, 3.3% and 4.3%, at 1, 2, 5 and 7 years after ART initiation, respectively. TB CIF was highest among participants with CD4 < 50 cells/mm3. The overall crude incidence of TB was 4.66 (95% CI 3.87-5.60) per 1000 PY. Low CD4 count, BMI < 18 kg/m2, and substance use in the previous six months were significantly associated with incident TB. Incidence declined with time on suppressive ART, but remained higher than the Thai general population 7 years after ART initiation (2.2 vs 1.5/1000 PY, respectively).ConclusionDespite a marked reduction in TB incidence following ART, ongoing TB risk remains high among PLWH, despite long-term suppressive ART. Those with low CD4 cell counts, who are underweight, or currently having substance abuse should be carefully monitored.

Project description:ImportanceMedical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are proven HIV prevention interventions, but there are limited data on the population-level effect of scale-up of these interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Such evaluation is important for planning and resource allocation.ObjectiveTo examine whether increasing community MMC and ART coverage was associated with reduced community HIV incidence in Rakai District, Uganda.Design, setting, and participantsUsing person-level data from population-based surveys conducted from 1999 through 2013 in 45 rural Rakai communities, community-level ART and MMC coverage, sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, and HIV prevalence and incidence were estimated in 3 periods: prior to the availability of ART and MMC (1999-2004), during early availability of ART and MMC (2004-2007), and during mature program scale-up (2007-2013).ExposuresCommunity MMC coverage in males and ART coverage in HIV-positive persons of the opposite sex based on self-reported MMC status and ART use.Main outcomes and measuresAdjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for sex-specific community HIV incidence estimated using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations.ResultsFrom 1999 through 2013, 44,688 persons participated in 1 or more surveys (mean age at the first survey, 24.6 years [range, 15-49]; female, 56.5%; mean survey participation rate, 92.6% [95% CI, 92.4%-92.7%]). Median community MMC coverage increased from 19% to 39%, and median community ART coverage rose from 0% to 21% in males and from 0% to 26% in females. Median community HIV incidence declined from 1.25 to 0.84 per 100 person-years in males, and from 1.25 to 0.99 per 100 person-years in females. Among males, each 10% increase in community MMC coverage was associated with an adjusted IRR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93). Comparing communities with MMC coverage more than 40% (mean male community incidence, 1.03 per 100 person-years) with communities with coverage of 10% or less (mean male incidence, 1.69 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.88). For each 10% increase in female self-reported ART coverage, there was no significant reduction in male HIV incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.81-1.13]). Comparing communities with female ART coverage more than 20% (mean male incidence, 0.87 per 100 person-years) to communities with female ART coverage of 20% or less (mean male incidence, 1.17 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98). Neither MMC nor male ART coverage was associated with lower female community HIV incidence.Conclusions and relevanceIn Rakai, Uganda, increasing community MMC and female ART coverage was associated with lower community HIV incidence in males. If similar associations are found elsewhere, this would support further scale-up of MMC and ART for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa.

Dataset Information

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

Similar Datasets

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