Dataset Information

Accurate multimodal probabilistic prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

ABSTRACT: Accurately identifying the patients that have mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) will become essential as new treatments will require identification of AD patients at earlier stages in the disease process. Most previous work in this area has centred around the same automated techniques used to diagnose AD patients from healthy controls, by coupling high dimensional brain image data or other relevant biomarker data to modern machine learning techniques. Such studies can now distinguish between AD patients and controls as accurately as an experienced clinician. Models trained on patients with AD and control subjects can also distinguish between MCI patients that will convert to AD within a given timeframe (MCI-c) and those that remain stable (MCI-s), although differences between these groups are smaller and thus, the corresponding accuracy is lower. The most common type of classifier used in these studies is the support vector machine, which gives categorical class decisions. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian process (GP) classification to the problem. This fully Bayesian method produces naturally probabilistic predictions, which we show correlate well with the actual chances of converting to AD within 3 years in a population of 96 MCI-s and 47 MCI-c subjects. Furthermore, we show that GPs can integrate multimodal data (in this study volumetric MRI, FDG-PET, cerebrospinal fluid, and APOE genotype with the classification process through the use of a mixed kernel). The GP approach aids combination of different data sources by learning parameters automatically from training data via type-II maximum likelihood, which we compare to a more conventional method based on cross validation and an SVM classifier. When the resulting probabilities from the GP are dichotomised to produce a binary classification, the results for predicting MCI conversion based on the combination of all three types of data show a balanced accuracy of 74%. This is a substantially higher accuracy than could be obtained using any individual modality or using a multikernel SVM, and is competitive with the highest accuracy yet achieved for predicting conversion within three years on the widely used ADNI dataset.

SUBMITTER: Young J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3777690 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accurate multimodal probabilistic prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

Young Jonathan J Modat Marc M Cardoso Manuel J MJ Mendelson Alex A Cash Dave D Ourselin Sebastien S

NeuroImage. Clinical 20130519

Accurately identifying the patients that have mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) will become essential as new treatments will require identification of AD patients at earlier stages in the disease process. Most previous work in this area has centred around the same automated techniques used to diagnose AD patients from healthy controls, by coupling high dimensional brain image data or other relevant biomarker data to modern machine learning techniq ...[more]

PMID: 24179825

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Project description:Effective and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), as well as its prodromal stage (i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI)), has attracted more and more attention recently. So far, multiple biomarkers have been shown to be sensitive to the diagnosis of AD and MCI, i.e., structural MR imaging (MRI) for brain atrophy measurement, functional imaging (e.g., FDG-PET) for hypometabolism quantification, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for quantification of specific proteins. However, most existing research focuses on only a single modality of biomarkers for diagnosis of AD and MCI, although recent studies have shown that different biomarkers may provide complementary information for the diagnosis of AD and MCI. In this paper, we propose to combine three modalities of biomarkers, i.e., MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF biomarkers, to discriminate between AD (or MCI) and healthy controls, using a kernel combination method. Specifically, ADNI baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data from 51AD patients, 99 MCI patients (including 43 MCI converters who had converted to AD within 18 months and 56 MCI non-converters who had not converted to AD within 18 months), and 52 healthy controls are used for development and validation of our proposed multimodal classification method. In particular, for each MR or FDG-PET image, 93 volumetric features are extracted from the 93 regions of interest (ROIs), automatically labeled by an atlas warping algorithm. For CSF biomarkers, their original values are directly used as features. Then, a linear support vector machine (SVM) is adopted to evaluate the classification accuracy, using a 10-fold cross-validation. As a result, for classifying AD from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 93.2% (with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 93.3%) when combining all three modalities of biomarkers, and only 86.5% when using even the best individual modality of biomarkers. Similarly, for classifying MCI from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 76.4% (with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 66%) for our combined method, and only 72% even using the best individual modality of biomarkers. Further analysis on MCI sensitivity of our combined method indicates that 91.5% of MCI converters and 73.4% of MCI non-converters are correctly classified. Moreover, we also evaluate the classification performance when employing a feature selection method to select the most discriminative MR and FDG-PET features. Again, our combined method shows considerably better performance, compared to the case of using an individual modality of biomarkers.

Project description:Multiple biomarkers can capture different facets of Alzheimer's disease. However, statistical models of biomarkers to predict outcomes in Alzheimer's rarely model nonlinear interactions between these measures. Here, we used Gaussian Processes to address this, modelling nonlinear interactions to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's over 3 years, using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data. Measures included: demographics, APOE4 genotype, CSF (amyloid-β42, total tau, phosphorylated tau), [18F ]florbetapir, hippocampal volume and brain-age. We examined: (a) the independent value of each biomarker; and (b) whether modelling nonlinear interactions between biomarkers improved predictions. Each measured added complementary information when predicting conversion to Alzheimer's. A linear model classifying stable from progressive MCI explained over half the variance (R2 = 0.51, p < .001); the strongest independently contributing biomarker was hippocampal volume (R2 = 0.13). When comparing sensitivity of different models to progressive MCI (independent biomarker models, additive models, nonlinear interaction models), we observed a significant improvement (p < .001) for various two-way interaction models. The best performing model included an interaction between amyloid-β-PET and P-tau, while accounting for hippocampal volume (sensitivity = 0.77, AUC = 0.826). Closely related biomarkers contributed uniquely to predict conversion to Alzheimer's. Nonlinear biomarker interactions were also implicated, and results showed that although for some patients adding additional biomarkers may add little value (i.e., when hippocampal volume is high), for others (i.e., with low hippocampal volume) further invasive and expensive examination may be warranted. Our framework enables visualisation of these interactions, in individual patient biomarker 'space', providing information for personalised or stratified healthcare or clinical trial design.

Dataset Information

Accurate multimodal probabilistic prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

Publications

Accurate multimodal probabilistic prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's disease in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

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