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Are inventory based and remotely sensed above-ground biomass estimates consistent?

ABSTRACT: Carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation are poorly known at local, national and global scales. In part, this lack of knowledge results from uncertain above-ground biomass estimates. It is generally assumed that using more sophisticated methods of estimating above-ground biomass, which make use of remote sensing, will improve accuracy. We examine this assumption by calculating, and then comparing, above-ground biomass area density (AGBD) estimates from studies with differing levels of methodological sophistication. We consider estimates based on information from nine different studies at the scale of Africa, Mozambique and a 1160 km(2) study area within Mozambique. The true AGBD is not known for these scales and so accuracy cannot be determined. Instead we consider the overall precision of estimates by grouping different studies. Since an the accuracy of an estimate cannot exceed its precision, this approach provides an upper limit on the overall accuracy of the group. This reveals poor precision at all scales, even between studies that are based on conceptually similar approaches. Mean AGBD estimates for Africa vary from 19.9 to 44.3 Mg ha(-1), for Mozambique from 12.7 to 68.3 Mg ha(-1), and for the 1160 km(2) study area estimates range from 35.6 to 102.4 Mg ha(-1). The original uncertainty estimates for each study, when available, are generally small in comparison with the differences between mean biomass estimates of different studies. We find that increasing methodological sophistication does not appear to result in improved precision of AGBD estimates, and moreover, inadequate estimates of uncertainty obscure any improvements in accuracy. Therefore, despite the clear advantages of remote sensing, there is a need to improve remotely sensed AGBD estimates if they are to provide accurate information on above-ground biomass. In particular, more robust and comprehensive uncertainty estimates are needed.

SUBMITTER: Hill TC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3777937 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background:Above-ground biomass (AGB) is a basic agronomic parameter for field investigation and is frequently used to indicate crop growth status, the effects of agricultural management practices, and the ability to sequester carbon above and below ground. The conventional way to obtain AGB is to use destructive sampling methods that require manual harvesting of crops, weighing, and recording, which makes large-area, long-term measurements challenging and time consuming. However, with the diversity of platforms and sensors and the improvements in spatial and spectral resolution, remote sensing is now regarded as the best technical means for monitoring and estimating AGB over large areas. Results:In this study, we used structural and spectral information provided by remote sensing from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in combination with machine learning to estimate maize biomass. Of the 14 predictor variables, six were selected to create a model by using a recursive feature elimination algorithm. Four machine-learning regression algorithms (multiple linear regression, support vector machine, artificial neural network, and random forest) were evaluated and compared to create a suitable model, following which we tested whether the two sampling methods influence the training model. To estimate the AGB of maize, we propose an improved method for extracting plant height from UAV images and a volumetric indicator (i.e., BIOVP). The results show that (1) the random forest model gave the most balanced results, with low error and a high ratio of the explained variance for both the training set and the test set. (2) BIOVP can retain the largest strength effect on the AGB estimate in four different machine learning models by using importance analysis of predictors. (3) Comparing the plant heights calculated by the three methods with manual ground-based measurements shows that the proposed method increased the ratio of the explained variance and reduced errors. Conclusions:These results lead us to conclude that the combination of machine learning with UAV remote sensing is a promising alternative for estimating AGB. This work suggests that structural and spectral information can be considered simultaneously rather than separately when estimating biophysical crop parameters.

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Are inventory based and remotely sensed above-ground biomass estimates consistent?

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