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Transient population dynamics of mosquitoes during sterile male releases: modelling mating behaviour and perturbations of life history parameters.

ABSTRACT: The release of genetically-modified or sterile male mosquitoes offers a promising form of mosquito-transmitted pathogen control, but the insights derived from our understanding of male mosquito behaviour have not fully been incorporated into the design of such genetic control or sterile-male release methods. The importance of aspects of male life history and mating behaviour for sterile-male release programmes were investigated by projecting a stage-structured matrix model over time. An elasticity analysis of transient dynamics during sterile-male releases was performed to provide insight on which vector control methods are likely to be most synergistic. The results suggest that high mating competitiveness and mortality costs of released males are required before the sterile-release method becomes ineffective. Additionally, if released males suffer a mortality cost, older males should be released due to their increased mating capacity. If released males are of a homogenous size and size-assortative mating occurs in nature, this can lead to an increase in the abundance of large females and reduce the efficacy of the population-suppression effort. At a high level of size-assortative mating, the disease transmission potential of the vector population increases due to male releases, arguing for the release of a heterogeneously-sized male population. The female population was most sensitive to perturbations of density-dependent components of larval mortality and female survivorship and fecundity. These findings suggest source reduction might be a particularly effective complement to mosquito control based on the sterile insect technique (SIT). In order for SIT to realize its potential as a key component of an integrated vector-management strategy to control mosquito-transmitted pathogens, programme design of sterile-male release programmes must account for the ecology, behaviour and life history of mosquitoes. The model used here takes a step in this direction and can easily be modified to investigate additional aspects of mosquito behaviour or species-specific ecology.

SUBMITTER: Stone CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3781073 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Transient population dynamics of mosquitoes during sterile male releases: modelling mating behaviour and perturbations of life history parameters.

Stone Christopher M CM

PloS one 20130923 9

The release of genetically-modified or sterile male mosquitoes offers a promising form of mosquito-transmitted pathogen control, but the insights derived from our understanding of male mosquito behaviour have not fully been incorporated into the design of such genetic control or sterile-male release methods. The importance of aspects of male life history and mating behaviour for sterile-male release programmes were investigated by projecting a stage-structured matrix model over time. An elastici ...[more]

PMID: 24086715

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Project description:BackgroundThe sterile insect technique (SIT), which involves area-wide inundative releases of sterile insects to suppress the reproduction of a target species, has proven to be an effective pest control method. The technique demands the continuous release of sterilized insects in quantities that ensure a high sterile male:wild male ratio for the suppression of the wild population over succeeding generations.MethodsFor these releases, it is important to determine several ecological and biological population parameters, including the longevity of the released males in the field, the dispersal of the released males and the wild pest population size. The Lee County Mosquito Control District initiated a study in a 47-ha portion of Captiva Island (Florida, USA), an island with a total area of 230 ha, to define biological SIT parameters for Aedes aegypti (L.), an invasive disease-vectoring mosquito known to be difficult to control due to a combination of daytime biting activity, use of cryptic breeding habitats that are difficult to target with conventional night-time ultra-low volume methods, and emerging resistance to commonly used insecticides. Another goal was to assess patterns of dispersal and survival for laboratory-reared sterile Ae. aegypti males released over time in the pilot site. These parameters will be used to evaluate the efficacy of a SIT suppression program for Ae. aegypti on Captiva Island.ResultsOver the course of seven mark-release-recapture studies using single- and multiple-point releases, 190,504 sterile marked males were released, for which the recapture rate was 1.5% over a mean period of 12 days. The mean distance traveled by sterile males of the local strain of Ae. aegypti that has colonized Captiva Island was 201.7 m from the release point, with an observed maximum traveled distance of 404.5 m. The released sterile mosquitoes had a probability of daily survival of 0.67 and an average life expectancy of ~ 2.46 days.ConclusionsThese data together with the population size estimate and sterile:wild ratio provide a solid basis for planning the SIT operational phase which is aimed at mosquito population suppression.

Project description:BackgroundReproductive containment provides an opportunity to implement a staged-release strategy for genetic control of malaria vectors, in particular allowing predictions about the spread and persistence of (self-limiting) sterile and male-biased strains to be compared to outcomes before moving to (self-sustaining) gene-drive strains.MethodsIn this study, we: (i) describe a diffusion-advection-reaction model of the spread and persistence of a single cohort of male mosquitoes; (ii) elicit informative prior distributions for model parameters, for wild-type (WT) and genetically modified dominant sterile strains (DSM); (iii) estimate posterior distributions for WT strains using data from published mark-recapture-release (MRR) experiments, with inference performed through the Delayed-Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm; and (iv) weight prior distributions, in order to make predictions about genetically modified strains using Bayes factors calculated for the WT strains.ResultsIf a single cohort of 5000 genetically modified dominant sterile male mosquitoes are released at the same location as previous MRR experiments with their WT counterparts, there is a 90% probability that the expected number of released mosquitoes will fall to < 1 in 10 days, and that by 12 days there will be a 99% probability that no mosquitoes will be found more than 150 m from the release location.ConclusionsSpread and persistence models should form a key component of risk assessments of novel genetic control strategies for malaria vectors. Our predictions, used in an independent risk assessment, suggest that genetically modified sterile male mosquitoes will remain within the locality of the release site, and that they will persist for a very limited amount of time. Data gathered following the release of these mosquitoes will enable us to test the accuracy of these predictions and also provide a means to update parameter distributions for genetic strains in a coherent (Bayesian) framework. We anticipate this will provide additional insights about how to conduct probabilistic risk assessments of stage-released genetically modified mosquitoes.

Dataset Information

Transient population dynamics of mosquitoes during sterile male releases: modelling mating behaviour and perturbations of life history parameters.

Publications

Transient population dynamics of mosquitoes during sterile male releases: modelling mating behaviour and perturbations of life history parameters.

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