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Prediction of severe, persistent activity-of-daily-living disability in older adults.

ABSTRACT: In a prospective cohort of nondisabled adults aged 65 years or more in the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (1981-1987 and 1985-1992), we used a competing risk approach to predict the 5-year risk of severe, persistent activities-of-daily-living (ADLs) disability, defined as dependence in ≥3 ADLs for 2 consecutive annual interviews or for 1 interview followed by death in the subsequent year. During 5 years, 6.8% developed severe, persistent ADL dependence, and 14.6% died without severe, persistent ADL dependence in the derivation cohort (n = 8,301); the corresponding percentages were 6.8% and 15.8% in the validation cohort (n = 4,177). A model based on age, current employment, visual impairment, self-rated health, diabetes mellitus, history of stroke or brain hemorrhage, cognitive function, and self-reported physical function showed good calibration. Discrimination, assessed by C statistics, for <70, 70-74, 75-79, and ≥80 years, was 0.75, 0.74, 0.65, and 0.66 in the derivation cohort and 0.70, 0.72, 0.70, and 0.65 in the validation cohort, respectively. In conclusion, a simple risk score based on routinely available clinical information can predict severe, persistent disability in 5 years. Future studies should examine whether physical performance measures can further improve prediction in the oldest old.

SUBMITTER: Kim DH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3783096 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundStudies have examined functional disability among older adults by combining Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). This study adds another dimension to ADL and IADL by combining various impairments such as hearing, vision, walking, chewing, speaking, and memory loss among older adults. This study examines functional disability among older adults in India as measured by ADL, IADL, along with various impairments.MethodsThis study utilized data from Building a Knowledge Base on Population Aging in India (BKPAI), a national-level survey and conducted across seven states of India. The study utilized three outcome variables, namely, ADL, IADL, and Impairments. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were used along with multivariate analysis to fulfil the objectives of the study. The concentration index was calculated for ADL, IADL, and impairments, and further, decomposition analysis was carried out for IADL.ResultsThe results observed that nearly 7.5% of older adults were not fully independent for ADL. More than half (56.8%) were not fully independent for IADL, and nearly three-fourths (72.6%) reported impairments. Overall, ADL, IADL, and impairments were higher among older adult's aged 80+ years, older adults with poor self-rated health, and those suffering from chronic diseases. The likelihood of ADL (AOR = 6.42, 95% CI: 5.1-8.08), IADL (AOR = 5.08, 95% CI: 4.16-6.21), and impairment (AOR = 3.50, 95% CI: 2.73-4.48) were significantly higher among older adults aged 80+ years compared to 60-69 years. Furthermore, older adults who had poor self-rated health and suffered from chronic diseases were more likely to report ADL (AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 2.37-3.67 and AOR = 2.70, 95% CI: 2.13-3.43), IADL (AOR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.57-1.92 and AOR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04-1.15), and impairment (AOR = 2.36, 95% CI: 2.11-2.63 and AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 2.65-3.30), respectively compared to their counterparts. Educational status and wealth explained most of the socio-economic inequality in the prevalence of IADL among older adults.ConclusionIt is recommended that the government advise older adults to adopt health-promoting approaches, which may be helpful. Further, there is a pressing need to deliver quality care to older adults suffering from chronic conditions.

Project description:BackgroundIdentifying factors that affect variation in health care spending among older adults with disability may reveal opportunities to better address their care needs while offsetting excess spending.ObjectiveTo quantify differences in total Medicare spending among older adults with disability by whether they experience negative consequences due to inadequate support with household activities, mobility, or self-care.DesignObservational study of in-person interviews and linked Medicare claims.SettingUnited States, 2015.Participants3716 community-living older adults who participated in the 2015 NHATS (National Health and Aging Trends Study) and survived for 12 months.MeasurementsTotal Medicare spending by spending quartile in multivariable regression models that adjusted for individual characteristics.ResultsNegative consequences were experienced by 18.3% of participants with disability in household activities, 25.6% with mobility disability, and 20.0% with self-care disability. Median Medicare spending was higher for those who experienced negative consequences due to household ($4866 vs. $4095), mobility ($7266 vs. $4115), and self-care ($10 935 vs. $4436) disability versus those who did not. In regression-adjusted analyses, median spending did not differ appreciably for participants who experienced negative consequences in household activities ($338 [95% CI, -$768 to $1444]), but was higher for those with mobility ($2309 [CI, $208 to $4409]) and self-care ($3187 [CI, $432 to $5942]) disability. In the bottom-spending quartile, differences were observed for self-care only ($1460 [CI, $358 to $2561]). No differences were observed in the top quartile.LimitationThis observational study could not establish causality.ConclusionInadequate support for mobility and self-care is associated with higher Medicare spending, especially in the middle and lower ends of the spending distribution. Better support for the care needs of older adults with disability could offset some Medicare spending.Primary funding sourceThe Commonwealth Fund.

Project description:ImportanceSevere disability greatly diminishes quality of life and often leads to a protracted period of long-term care or death, yet the processes underlying severe disability have not been fully evaluated.ObjectiveTo evaluate potential risk factors and precipitants associated with severe disability that develops progressively (during ≥2 months) vs catastrophically (from 1 month to the next).Design, setting, and participantsProspective cohort study conducted in greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to December 2016, with 754 nondisabled community-living persons aged 70 years or older. Data analysis was conducted from November 2018 to May 2019.Main outcomes and measuresCandidate risk factors were assessed every 18 months. Functional status and potential precipitants, including illnesses or injuries leading to hospitalization, emergency department visit, or restricted activity, were assessed each month. Severe disability was defined as the need for personal assistance with at least 3 of 4 essential activities of daily living. The analysis was based on person-months within 18-month intervals.ResultsThe mean (SD) age for the 754 participants was 78.4 (5.3) years, 487 (64.6%) were women, and 683 (90.5%) were non-Hispanic white participants. The incidence of progressive and catastrophic severe disability was 3.5% and 9.7%, respectively, based on 3550 intervals. In multivariable analysis, 6 risk factors were independently associated with progressive disability (≥85 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; hearing impairment: HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.8; frailty: HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.6-3.7; cognitive impairment: HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.1; low functional self-efficacy: HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.8; low peak flow: HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.4), and 4 were independently associated with catastrophic disability (visual impairment: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; hearing impairment: HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7; poor physical performance: HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5; low peak flow: HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7). The associations of the precipitants were much more pronounced than those of the risk factors, with HRs as high as 321.4 (95% CI, 194.5-531.0) for hospitalization and catastrophic disability and 48.3 (95% CI, 31.0%-75.4%) for hospitalization and progressive disability. Elimination of an intervening hospitalization was associated with a decrease in the risk of progressive and catastrophic severe disability of 3.0% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.1%) and 12.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.5%), respectively. Risk differences were 0.6% (95% CI, 0.6%-0.6%) and 1.3% (95% CI, 1.3%-1.4%) for emergency department visit and 0.1% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.2%) and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.4%-0.4%) for restricted activity, and ranged from 0.1% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.1%) to 0.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.3%) for the independent risk factors, for progressive and catastrophic disability, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this study suggest that whether it develops progressively or catastrophically, severe disability among older community-living adults arises most commonly in the setting of an intervening illness or injury. To reduce the burden of severe disability, more aggressive efforts will be needed to prevent and manage intervening illnesses or injuries and to facilitate recovery after these debilitating events.

Project description:ImportanceBody mass index (BMI) shows a U-shaped association with impaired physical functioning among adults; the association is reduced or eliminated with aging.ObjectiveTo examine whether BMI is associated with subsequent disability in activities of daily living (ADL) in Chinese adults age 80 years or older.Design, setting, and participantsData were obtained on 16 022 adults age 80 years or older who were able to perform ADL independently at baseline from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study, a community-based prospective cohort study conducted in 23 provinces of China. The study was initiated in 1998, with follow-up and recruitment of new participants in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014.Main outcomes and measuresDisability in ADL was defined as dependence in eating, toileting, bathing, dressing, indoor activities, and/or continence.ResultsAmong the 16 022 participants, 45.2% were men and 54.8% were women, with a mean (SD) age of 92.2 (7.2) years and a mean (SD) BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 19.3 (3.8). During 70 606 person-years of follow-up, 8113 participants with disability in ADL were identified. Cox proportional hazards regression models with penalized splines showed that BMI was linearly associated with disability in ADL: each 1-kg/m2 increase in BMI corresponded to a 4.5% decrease in the risk of disability in ADL. In comparison with individuals in the fourth quintile for BMI, the adjusted hazard ratio for disability in ADL was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.29-1.48) in the first quintile, 1.37 (95% CI, 1.28-1.47) in the second quintile, 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04-1.19) in the third quintile, and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79-0.91) in the fifth quintile (P?<?.001 for trend). When BMI was categorized by Chinese guidelines, the underweight group (BMI <18.5) showed significantly increased risk of disability in ADL (hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.28-1.41) and the overweight or obese group (BMI ?24.0) showed significantly decreased risk of disability in ADL (hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.78-0.91) compared with the normal weight group (BMI 18.5 to <24.0) (P?<?.001 for trend).Conclusions and relevanceHigher BMI was associated with a lower risk of disability in ADL among Chinese adults age 80 years or older, which suggests that current recommendations for BMI may need to be revisited. More attention should be paid on underweight, rather than overweight or obesity, for the prevention of disability in ADL after age 80 years.

Project description:BackgroundPhysical performances including upper and lower limb functions have predictive roles in activities of daily living (ADL) disability, but they have rarely been incorporated into prediction models. This study primarily aimed to develop and validate novel physical performance-based models for ADL disability among Chinese older adults. Comparisons of predictive performance across multiple models were performed, and model simplification was further explored.MethodsData were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in the 2011 and 2015 waves, containing 2192 older adults over 60 years old. Our models were constructed by logistic regression analysis, using a backward stepwise selection. Model performance was internally validated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) were used to assess the incremental benefit of the extended models. Moreover, nomograms were built for visualization.ResultsWe selected gender, age, smoking, self-report health condition, BMI, depressive symptoms, and cognitive function into the fundamental model (Model 1). Based on Model 1, five novel prediction models were constructed by adding handgrip strength (Model 2), Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) (Model 3), gait speed (Model 4), handgrip strength plus SPPB (Model 5), and handgrip strength plus gait speed (Model 6), respectively. Significant improvement in predictive values were observed for all five novel models compared with Model 1 (C-index = 0.693). The lower limb model (Model 3 SPPB model: C-index = 0.731) may play a key role in the prediction of ADL disability, reflecting a comparable predictive value to the comprehensive models combining both upper and lower limbs (Model 5 handgrip strength + SPPB model: C-index = 0.732). When we simplified the lower limb models by replacing SPPB with gait speed, the predictive values attenuated slightly (C-index: Model 3 vs Model 4: 0.731 vs 0.714; Model 5 vs Model 6: 0.732 vs 0.718), but still better than the upper limb model (Model 2 handgrip strength model: C-index = 0.701).ConclusionsPhysical performance-based models, especially lower limb model, provided improved prediction for ADL disability among Chinese older adults, which may help guide the targeted intervention.

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Prediction of severe, persistent activity-of-daily-living disability in older adults.

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