Dataset Information

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.

ABSTRACT: Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurate description of disease progression and variable infectivity. We derived explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number and the elimination threshold. Using estimates of exponential growth rates of HIV during the initial phase of epidemics, we investigated for which populations elimination is within reach. The concept of the elimination threshold allows an assessment of the prospects of elimination of HIV from information in the early phase of the epidemic. The relative elimination threshold quantifies prospects of elimination independently of the details of the transmission dynamics. Elimination of HIV by test-and-treat is only feasible for populations with very low reproduction numbers or if the reproduction number is lowered significantly as a result of additional interventions. Allowing low infectiousness during primary infection, the likelihood of elimination becomes somewhat higher. The elimination threshold is a powerful tool for assessing prospects of elimination from available data on epidemic growth rates of HIV. Empirical estimates of the epidemic growth rate from phylogenetic studies were used to assess the potential for elimination in specific populations.

SUBMITTER: Kretzschmar ME

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3785722 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.

Kretzschmar Mirjam E ME Schim van der Loeff Maarten F MF Birrell Paul J PJ De Angelis Daniela D Coutinho Roel A RA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20130905 39

Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurat ...[more]

PMID: 24009342

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundPlasmodium vivax malaria is challenging to control and eliminate. Treatment with radical cure drugs fails to target the hidden asymptomatic and hypnozoite reservoirs in populations. PvSeroTAT, a novel serological test-and-treat intervention using a serological diagnostic to screen hypnozoite carriers for radical cure eligibility and treatment, could accelerate P. vivax elimination.MethodsUsing a previously developed mathematical model of P. vivax transmission adapted to the Brazilian context as a case study for implementation, we evaluate the public health impact of various deployment strategies of PvSeroTAT as a mass campaign. We compare relative reductions in prevalence, cases averted, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) tests, and treatment doses of PvSeroTAT campaigns to strengthened case management alone or mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns across different settings.FindingsDeploying a single round of PvSeroTAT with 80% coverage to treat cases with a high efficacy radical cure regimen with primaquine is predicted to reduce point population prevalence by 22.5% [95% UI: 20.2%-24.8%] in a peri-urban setting with high transmission and by 25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] in an occupational setting with moderate transmission. In the latter example, while a single PvSeroTAT achieves 9.2% less impact on prevalence and averts 300 less cases per 100,000 than a single MDA (25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] point prevalence reduction versus 34.4% [95% UI: 24.9%-44%]), PvSeroTAT requires 4.6 times less radical cure treatments and G6PD tests. Layering strengthened case management and deploying four rounds of PvSeroTAT six months apart is predicted to reduce point prevalence by a mean of 74.1% [95% UI: 61.3%-86.3%] or more in low transmission settings with less than 10 cases per 1000 population.InterpretationModelling predicts that mass campaigns with PvSeroTAT are predicted to reduce P. vivax parasite prevalence across a range of transmission settings and require fewer resources than MDA. In combination with strengthened case management, mass campaigns of serological test-and-treat interventions can accelerate towards P. vivax elimination.FundingThis project was funded in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Project description:BackgroundA test-and-not-treat (TaNT) strategy has been developed to prevent people with high concentrations of circulating Loa loa microfilariae (>20 000 microfilariae per mL) developing serious adverse events after ivermectin treatment during mass drug administration to eliminate onchocerciasis. An important question related to cost and programmatic issues is whether annual retesting is required for everyone. We therefore aimed to investigate changes in L loa microfilarial densities during TaNT campaigns run 18 months apart.MethodsIn this observational cohort study, we assessed the participants of two TaNT campaigns for onchocerciasis. These campaigns, which were run by a research team, together with personnel from the Ministry of Health and community health workers, were done in six health areas (in 89 communities) in Okola health district (Cameroon); the first campaign was run between Aug 10, and Oct 29, 2015, and the second was run between March 7, and May 26, 2017. All individuals aged 5 years and older were invited to be screened for Loa loa microfilaraemia before being offered ivermectin (unless contraindicated). L loa microfilarial density was measured at the point of care using the LoaScope. All those with a L loa microfilarial density of 20 000 microfilariae per mL or less were offered treatment; in the first 2 weeks of the 2015 campaign, a higher exclusion threshold of 26 000 microfilariae per mL or less was used. At both rounds of the intervention, participants were registered with a paper form, in which personal information were collected. In 2017, we also recorded whether each individual reported participation in the 2015 campaign. The primary outcome, assessed in all participants, was whether L loa microfilarial density was above or below the exclusion threshold (ie, the criteria that guided the decision to treat).FindingsIn the 2015 TaNT campaign, 26 415 people were censused versus 29 587 people in the 2017 TaNT campaign. All individuals aged 5 years and older without other contraindications to treatment (22 842 people in 2015 and 25 421 people in 2017) were invited to be screened for L loa microfilaraemia before being offered ivermectin. In 2015, 16 182 individuals were examined with the LoaScope, versus 18 697 individuals in the same communities in 2017. 344 (2·1%) individuals were excluded from ivermectin treatment because of a high L loa microfilarial density in 2015, versus 283 (1·5%) individuals in 2017 (p<0·0001). Records from 2017 could be matched to those from 2015 for 6983 individuals (43·2% of the 2015 participants). In this cohort, in 2017, 6981 (>99·9%) of 6983 individuals treated with ivermectin in 2015 had L loa microfilariae density below the level associated with neurological serious adverse events.InterpretationIndividuals treated with ivermectin do not need to be retested for L loa microfilaraemia before the next treatment, provided that they can be re-identified. This adjusted approach will enable substantial cost savings and facilitate reaching programmatic goals for elimination of onchocerciasis in areas that are co-endemic for loiasis.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Division of Intramural Research (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health).

Project description:BackgroundImplementation of an ivermectin-based community treatment strategy for the elimination of onchocerciasis or lymphatic filariasis has been delayed in Central Africa because of the occurrence of serious adverse events, including death, in persons with high levels of circulating Loa loa microfilariae. The LoaScope, a field-friendly diagnostic tool to quantify L. loa microfilariae in peripheral blood, enables rapid, point-of-care identification of persons at risk for serious adverse events.MethodsA test-and-not-treat strategy was used in the approach to ivermectin treatment in the Okola health district in Cameroon, where the distribution of ivermectin was halted in 1999 after the occurrence of fatal events related to L. loa infection. The LoaScope was used to identify persons with an L. loa microfilarial density greater than 20,000 microfilariae per milliliter of blood, who were considered to be at risk for serious adverse events, and exclude them from ivermectin distribution. Active surveillance for posttreatment adverse events was performed daily for 6 days.ResultsFrom August through October 2015, a total of 16,259 of 22,842 persons 5 years of age or older (71.2% of the target population) were tested for L. loa microfilaremia. Among the participants who underwent testing, a total of 15,522 (95.5%) received ivermectin, 340 (2.1%) were excluded from ivermectin distribution because of an L. loa microfilarial density above the risk threshold, and 397 (2.4%) were excluded because of pregnancy or illness. No serious adverse events were observed. Nonserious adverse events were recorded in 934 participants, most of whom (67.5%) had no detectable L. loa microfilariae.ConclusionsThe LoaScope-based test-and-not-treat strategy enabled the reimplementation of community-wide ivermectin distribution in a heretofore "off limits" health district in Cameroon and is a potentially practical approach to larger-scale ivermectin treatment for lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis in areas where L. loa infection is endemic. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Dataset Information

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.

Publications

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets