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Use of Individual-level Covariates to Improve Latent Class Analysis of Trypanosoma Cruzi Diagnostic Tests.

ABSTRACT: Statistical methods such as latent class analysis can estimate the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests when no perfect reference test exists. Traditional latent class methods assume a constant disease prevalence in one or more tested populations. When the risk of disease varies in a known way, these models fail to take advantage of additional information that can be obtained by measuring risk factors at the level of the individual. We show that by incorporating complex field-based epidemiologic data, in which the disease prevalence varies as a continuous function of individual-level covariates, our model produces more accurate sensitivity and specificity estimates than previous methods. We apply this technique to a simulated population and to actual Chagas disease test data from a community near Arequipa, Peru. Results from our model estimate that the first-line enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay has a sensitivity of 78% (95% CI: 62-100%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 99-100%). The confirmatory immunofluorescence assay is estimated to be 73% sensitive (95% CI: 65-81%) and 99% specific (95% CI: 96-100%).

SUBMITTER: Tustin AW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3785942 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Use of Individual-level Covariates to Improve Latent Class Analysis of Trypanosoma Cruzi Diagnostic Tests.

Tustin Aaron W AW Small Dylan S DS Delgado Stephen S Neyra Ricardo Castillo RC Verastegui Manuela R MR Ancca Juárez Jenny M JM Quispe Machaca Víctor R VR Gilman Robert H RH Bern Caryn C Levy Michael Z MZ

Epidemiologic methods 20120801 1

Statistical methods such as latent class analysis can estimate the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests when no perfect reference test exists. Traditional latent class methods assume a constant disease prevalence in one or more tested populations. When the risk of disease varies in a known way, these models fail to take advantage of additional information that can be obtained by measuring risk factors at the level of the individual. We show that by incorporating complex field-based ep ...[more]

PMID: 24083130

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Project description:BackgroundTrypanosoma cruzi, the protozoan agent of Chagas disease, is comprised of at least 6 genetic lineages (TcI-TcVI). Their geographical distribution, clinical associations and reservoir hosts are not fully elucidated, as genotyping is hampered due to the difficulty in isolating representative populations of organisms. Lineage-specific serological techniques may address these issues.MethodsTrypanosoma cruzi lineage-specific serological assays were performed on human, canine, feline and armadillo sera from the Gran Chaco in northern Argentina, a region of ongoing transmission. Synthetic peptides representing lineage-specific epitopes of the trypomastigote small surface antigen (TSSA) were used in ELISA, and the TcII/V/VI shared epitope peptide (TSSApep-II/V/VI) was used in the Chagas Sero K-SeT rapid diagnostic test (RDT).ResultsChagas Sero K-SeT RDT, using Protein G to detect human and canine IgG, was at least as sensitive as TSSApep-II/V/VI ELISA using specific secondary antibodies. For sera from humans TSSApep-II/V/VI seroprevalence by Chagas Sero K-SeT was 273/393 (69.5%), for dogs 48/73 (65.8%) and for armadillos 1/7 (14.3%); by ELISA for cats 5/19 (26.3%). The seroprevalence for humans was similar to that for Bolivian patients, amongst whom we previously observed an association of TSSApep-II/V/VI seropositivity with severity of cardiomyopathy. In humans, prevalence of TSSApep-II/V/VI recognition was associated with locality, and with increasing and decreasing age within the Qom and Creole populations, respectively. For dogs TSSApep-II/V/VI recognition was associated with being born before community-wide insecticide spraying (P = 0.05) and with Qom household (P < 0.001).ConclusionsWe show here that Chagas Sero K-SeT RDT can replace ELISA for TSSApep-II/V/VI serology of humans and dogs; for humans there were statistically significant associations between a positive Chagas Sero K-SeT RDT and being resident in Area IV, and for dogs association with Qom household or with being born before the mass spraying campaign; we also show that with cats the TcII/V/VI epitope can be detected by ELISA. We assessed the lineage distribution in an unprecedented 83% of the human T. cruzi-seropositive population. These results form the basis for more detailed studies, enabling rapid in-the-field surveillance of the distribution and clustering of these lineages among humans and mammalian reservoirs of T. cruzi infection.

Project description:ObjectivePrevious studies on diagnostic accuracy of dipstick testing for leukocyte esterase (LE) and nitrite to diagnose urinary tract infection (UTI) had used urine culture, which is an imperfect gold standard. Estimates of diagnostic accuracy obtained using the classical gold standard framework might not reflect the true diagnostic accuracy of dipstick tests.MethodsWe used the dataset from a prospective, observational study conducted in the emergency department of a teaching hospital in southern India. Patients with a clinical suspicion of UTI underwent dipstick testing for LE and nitrite, urine microscopy, and urine culture. Based on the results of urine microscopy and culture, UTI was classified into definite, probable, and possible. Patients with microscopic pyuria and a positive urine culture were adjudicated as definite UTI. Unequivocal imaging evidence of emphysematous pyelonephritis or perinephric collections was also considered definite UTI. We estimated the diagnostic accuracy of LE and nitrite tests using the classical analysis (assuming definite UTI as gold standard) and two different Bayesian latent class models (LCMs; 3-tests in 1-population and 2-tests in 2-populations models).ResultsWe studied 149 patients. Overall, 64 (43%) patients had definite, 76 (51%) had probable, and 2 (1.3%) had possible UTI; 7 (4.6%) had alternate diagnoses. In classical analysis, LE was more sensitive than nitrite (87.5% versus 70.5%), while nitrite was more specific (24% versus 58%). The 3-tests in 1-population Bayesian LCM indicated a substantially better sensitivity and specificity for LE (98.1% and 47.6%) and nitrite (88.2% and 97.7%). True sensitivity and specificity of urine culture as estimated by the model was 48.7% and 73.0%. Estimates of the 2-tests in 2-populations model were in agreement with the 3-tests in 1-population model.ConclusionsBayesian LCMs indicate a clinically important improvement in the true diagnostic accuracy of urine dipstick testing for LE and nitrite. Given this, a negative dipstick LE would rule-out UTI, while a positive dipstick nitrite would rule-in UTI in our study setting. True diagnostic accuracy of urine dipstick testing for UTI in various practice settings needs reevaluation using Bayesian LCMs.

Dataset Information

Use of Individual-level Covariates to Improve Latent Class Analysis of Trypanosoma Cruzi Diagnostic Tests.

Publications

Use of Individual-level Covariates to Improve Latent Class Analysis of Trypanosoma Cruzi Diagnostic Tests.

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