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Effect of including cancer mortality on the cost-effectiveness of aspirin for primary prevention in men.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent data suggest that aspirin may be effective for reducing cancer mortality.

Objective

To examine whether including a cancer mortality-reducing effect influences which men would benefit from aspirin for primary prevention.

Design

We modified our existing Markov model that examines the effects of aspirin among middle-aged men with no previous history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes. For our base case scenario of 45-year-old men, we examined costs and life-years for men taking aspirin for 10 years compared with men who were not taking aspirin over those 10 years; after 10 years, we equalized treatment and followed the cohort until death. We compared our results depending on whether or not we included a 22 % relative reduction in cancer mortality, based on a recent meta-analysis. We discounted costs and benefits at 3 % and employed a third party payer perspective.

Main measure

Cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

Key results

When no effect on cancer mortality was included, aspirin had a cost per QALY gained of $22,492 at 5 % 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk; at 2.5 % risk or below, no treatment was favored. When we included a reduction in cancer mortality, aspirin became cost-effective for men at 2.5 % risk as well (cost per QALY, $43,342). Results were somewhat sensitive to utility of taking aspirin daily; risk of death after myocardial infarction; and effects of aspirin on stroke, myocardial infarction, and sudden death. However, aspirin remained cost-saving or cost-effective (< $50,000 per QALY) in probabilistic analyses (59 % with no cancer effect included; 96 % with cancer effect) for men at 5 % risk.

Conclusions

Including an effect of aspirin on cancer mortality influences the threshold for prescribing aspirin for primary prevention in men. If such an effect is real, many middle-aged men at low cardiovascular risk would become candidates for regular aspirin use.

SUBMITTER: Pignone M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3797356 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Effect of including cancer mortality on the cost-effectiveness of aspirin for primary prevention in men.

Pignone Michael M   Earnshaw Stephanie S   McDade Cheryl C   Pletcher Mark J MJ  

Journal of general internal medicine 20130517 11


<h4>Background</h4>Recent data suggest that aspirin may be effective for reducing cancer mortality.<h4>Objective</h4>To examine whether including a cancer mortality-reducing effect influences which men would benefit from aspirin for primary prevention.<h4>Design</h4>We modified our existing Markov model that examines the effects of aspirin among middle-aged men with no previous history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes. For our base case scenario of 45-year-old men, we examined costs and lif  ...[more]

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