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Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

ABSTRACT: Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters.

SUBMITTER: Gasche L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3813694 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

Gasche Loïc L Mahévas Stéphanie S Marchal Paul P

PloS one 20131030 10

Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found i ...[more]

PMID: 24204873

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Project description:Different ecosystem models often provide contrasting predictions (model uncertainty), which is perceived to be a major challenge impeding their use to support ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). The focus of this manuscript is to examine the extent of model disagreements which could impact management advice for EBFM in the central Baltic Sea. We compare how much three models (EwE, Gadget and a multispecies stock production model) differ in 1) their estimates of fishing mortality rates (Fs) satisfying alternative hypothetical management scenario objectives and 2) the outcomes of those scenarios in terms of performance indicators (spawning stock biomasses, catches, profits). Uncertainty in future environmental conditions affecting fish was taken into account by considering two seal population growth scenarios and two nutrient load scenarios. Differences in the development of the stocks, yields and profits exist among the models but the general patterns are also sufficiently similar to appear promising in the context of strategic fishery advice. Thus, we suggest that disagreements among the ecosystem models will not impede their use for providing strategic advice on how to reach management objectives that go beyond the traditional maximum yield targets and for informing on the potential consequences of pursuing such objectives. This is especially true for scenarios aiming at exploiting forage fish sprat and herring, for which the agreement was the largest among our models. However, the quantitative response to altering fishing pressure differed among models. This was due to the diverse environmental covariates and the different number of trophic relationships and their functional forms considered in the models. This suggests that ecosystem models can be used to provide quantitative advice only after more targeted research is conducted to gain a deeper understanding into the relationship between trophic links and fish population dynamics in the Baltic Sea.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The future protection of marine biodiversity through good conservation planning requires both the identification of key habitats with unique ecological characteristics and detailed knowledge of their human utilization through fisheries. Demersal fisheries are important disturbers of benthic habitats. They often have a heterogeneous spatial distribution, pressurizing particular habitats with high abundances of target species. For the North Sea, we quantified the commonness/rarity of habitats in relation to the environmental determinants of so-called fishing hotspots, to support better-informed conservation planning of benthic habitats in this intensively used continental shelf. METHODS:We first distinguished 9 main seascapes in the study area based on seabed morphology. Secondly, we determined average fishing intensity and fishing hotspots using VMS-data for the three dominant Dutch fisheries from 2008 to 2015: beam-trawlers targeting sole Solea solea (Beam-Sole), beam-trawlers targeting plaice Pleuronectes platessa (Beam-Plaice), and otter-trawlers targeting Norway lobster Nephrops norvegicus and demersal fish (Otter-Mix). Within the seascapes subjected to >80% of the fishing activity, nineteen environmental factors (summarized by PCA) were used to ecologically characterize fishing hotspot locations using MaxEnt response modelling. RESULTS:We found that all three fisheries target highly specific, uncommon habitats. Beam-Sole fishers targeted warmer, shallow, dynamic, nearshore habitats, and within these specifically the depressions between sand ridges. Beam-Plaice fishers mainly targeted the exposed, non-muddy flanks of the Dogger Bank and similar large-scale elevations (50-75 km) where especially the ridges of smaller sand banks are used. Otter-Mix fisheries concentrated in areas with low bed shear stress, located in muddy, relatively deeper areas. IMPLICATIONS:This study is the first to provide insight in benthic habitat types that are frequently targeted by fishers in the North Sea. We demonstrated unequal exploitation pressure between seabed habitats, with the majority of hotspots in the less common habitats. Our results hence contribute to a more effective, ecologically informed planning for the protection and monitoring of all seabed habitats and biodiversity of the North Sea.

Project description:Natural resource management is evolving toward holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to decision making. The ecosystem science underpinning these approaches needs to account for the complexity of multiple interacting components within and across coupled natural-human systems. In this research, we investigate the potential economic and ecological gains from adopting ecosystem-based approaches for the sardine and anchovy fisheries off of the coast of California, USA. Research has shown that while predators in this system are likely substituting one forage species for another, the assemblage of sardine and anchovy can be a significant driver of predator populations. Currently, the harvest control rules for sardine and anchovy fisheries align more with traditional single species framework. We ask what are the economic and ecological gains when jointly determining the harvest control rules for both forage fish stocks and their predators relative to the status quo? What are the implications of synchronous and anti-synchronous environmental recruitment variation between the anchovy and sardine stocks on optimal food-web management? To investigate these questions, we develop an economic-ecological model for sardine, anchovy, a harvested predator (halibut), and an endangered predator (Brown Pelican) that includes recruitment variability over time driven by changing environmental conditions. Utilizing large-scale numerical optimal control methods, we investigate how the multiple variants of integrated management of sardine, anchovy, and halibut impact the overall economic condition of the fisheries and Brown Pelican populations over time. We find significant gains in moving to integrated catch control rules both in terms of the economic gains of the fished stocks, and in terms of the impacts on the Brown Pelican populations. We also compare the relative performance of current stylized catch control rules to optimal single species and optimal ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) across ecological and economic dimensions, where the former trade-off considerable economic value for ecological goals. More generally, we demonstrate how EBFM approaches introduce and integrate additional management levers for policymakers to achieve non-fishery objectives at lowest costs to the fishing sectors.

Dataset Information

Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

Publications

Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

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