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Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

ABSTRACT: Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, "rational" cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.

SUBMITTER: Henderson KA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3813756 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

Henderson Kirsten A KA Anand Madhur M Bauch Chris T CT

PloS one 20131030 10

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incen ...[more]

PMID: 24204942

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Project description:Many voluntary incentive programs for provision of forest ecosystem services (ES) have low participation rates, insufficient enrollment areas, and inefficient ecological outcomes. Understanding participation behavior in such programs has therefore become a crucial part of policy success. We synthesized a large body of literature on the behavior of nonindustrial private forest owners based on surveys of stated (intended) participation or data on actual participation in existing or hypothetical programs. Using metaregression analysis, we examined how methodological, program-characteristic, and economic-incentive variables affected participation rate estimates. Participation rates tended to be overestimated when landowner participation was elicited in hypothetical choice situations (compared with real situations) and when dichotomous choice surveys (compared with census data) were used. The marginal effect sizes were quite large, for example, a 31% increase with use of stated choices in hypothetical scenarios, and practitioners should therefore be aware of them. However, use of choice experiment surveys in a modified scenario based on existing programs had no effect on participation when all other determinants were controlled for. Participation rates decreased significantly as length of the contract increased and when there was no withdrawal option. These results suggest that perpetual contracts have a lower negative impact on participation than time-limited contracts with a duration of over 50 years. We confirmed that as compensation amounts increased, participation increased. One-time up-front payments were more effective in increasing initial participation than annual payments for contracts of over 5 years. We identified the robust determinants and the effect sizes of those determinants on landowner participation rate estimates, thereby contributing to a better understanding of forest owner behavior and offering useful insights to enable researchers and resource managers to improve the design and efficiency of new and existing forest ES programs.

Project description:BackgroundBehavioral economics has stimulated renewed interest in financial health incentives worldwide. The Carrot Rewards app was developed as part of a public-private partnership to reward Canadians with loyalty points (eg, movies and groceries) for downloading the app, referring friends, and completing an average of 1 to 2 educational health quizzes per week ("micro-learning"), with long-term objectives of increasing health knowledge and encouraging healthy behaviors.ObjectiveThe main objective of this study was to evaluate uptake of a loyalty points-based mHealth app during the exclusive 3-month launch period in British Columbia (BC), Canada. The secondary aims were to describe the health and sociodemographic characteristics of users, as well as participation levels (eg, proportion of quizzes completed and friends referred).MethodsThe app was promoted via loyalty program email campaigns (1.64 million emails). Number of downloads and registrations (users enter age, gender, and valid BC postal code to register) were collected. Additional sociodemographics were inferred by linking postal codes with census data at the local health area (LHA) level. Health risk assessments were also deployed. Participation levels were collected over 3 months and descriptive data were presented.ResultsIn 3 months, 67,464 individuals downloaded the app; in its first week, Carrot Rewards was the most downloaded health app in Canada. Among valid users (n=57,885; at least one quiz completed), the majority were female (62.96%; 36,446/57,885) and aged 18 to 34 years (54.34%; 31,459/57,885). More than half of the users (52.40%; 30,332/57,885) resided in LHAs where the median personal income was below the provincial average (Can $28,765). Furthermore, 64.42% (37,291/57,885) of users lived in metropolitan (ie, urban) LHAs, compared with 56.17% of the general BC population. The most prevalent risk factors were "not" meeting physical activity guidelines (72.70%; 31,765/43,692) and "not" getting the flu shot last year (67.69%; 30,286/44,739). Regarding participation, 60.05% (34,761/57,885) of users were classified as "very high" engagers (>75% quiz completion rate).ConclusionsEarly results suggest that loyalty points may promote mHealth app uptake. The app was downloaded by younger females especially, and BC residents from higher and lower income regions were equally represented. Loyalty points appear to have driven participation throughout the inaugural 3-month period (ie, quiz completion).

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Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

Publications

Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

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