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Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa.Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa.Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count or clinically were simulated. Scenario A considered the more accurate detection of treatment failure with POC-VL only, and scenario B also considered the effect on HIV transmission. Scenario C further assumed that the risk of virologic failure is halved with POC-VL due to improved adherence. We estimated the change in costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, ICERs) of POC-VL compared with CD4 and clinical monitoring.POC-VL tests with detection limits less than 1000 copies/ml increased costs due to unnecessary switches to second-line ART, without improving survival. Assuming POC-VL unit costs between US$5 and US$20 and detection limits between 1000 and 10,000 copies/ml, the ICER of POC-VL was US$4010-US$9230 compared with clinical and US$5960-US$25540 compared with CD4 cell count monitoring. In Scenario B, the corresponding ICERs were US$2450-US$5830 and US$2230-US$10380. In Scenario C, the ICER ranged between US$960 and US$2500 compared with clinical monitoring and between cost-saving and US$2460 compared with CD4 monitoring.The cost-effectiveness of POC-VL for monitoring ART is improved by a higher detection limit, by taking the reduction in new HIV infections into account and assuming that failure of first-line ART is reduced due to targeted adherence counselling.

SUBMITTER: Estill J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3813830 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study.

Estill Janne J Egger Matthias M Blaser Nello N Vizcaya Luisa Salazar LS Garone Daniela D Wood Robin R Campbell Jennifer J Hallett Timothy B TB Keiser Olivia O

AIDS (London, England) 20130601 9

<h4>Background</h4>Monitoring of HIV viral load in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined the cost-effectiveness of qualitative point-of-care viral load tests (POC-VL) in sub-Saharan Africa.<h4>Design</h4>Mathematical model based on longitudinal data from the Gugulethu and Khayelitsha township ART programmes in Cape Town, South Africa.<h4>Methods</h4>Cohorts of patients on ART monitored by POC-VL, CD4 cell count o ...[more]

PMID: 23462219

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Project description:BackgroundThe cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring.MethodsWe used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs.ResultsIntroducing 2nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1st- and 2nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure.ConclusionCompared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.

Project description:BackgroundThe results of international clinical trials that are assessing when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) will not be available for several years.ObjectiveTo inform HIV treatment decisions about the optimal CD4 threshold at which to initiate ART in South Africa while awaiting the results of these trials.DesignCost-effectiveness analysis by using a computer simulation model of HIV disease.Data sourcesPublished data from randomized trials and observational cohorts in South Africa.Target populationHIV-infected patients in South Africa.Time horizon5-year and lifetime.PerspectiveModified societal.InterventionNo treatment, ART initiated at a CD4 count less than 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L, and ART initiated at a CD4 count less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L.Outcome measuresMorbidity, mortality, life expectancy, medical costs, and cost-effectiveness.Results of base-case analysisIf 10% to 100% of HIV-infected patients are identified and linked to care, a CD4 count threshold for ART initiation of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L would reduce severe opportunistic diseases by 22,000 to 221,000 and deaths by 25,000 to 253,000 during the next 5 years compared with ART initiation at 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L; cost increases would range from $142 million (10%) to $1.4 billion (100%). Either ART initiation strategy would increase long-term survival by at least 7.9 years, with a mean per-person life expectancy of 3.8 years with no ART and 12.5 years with an initiation threshold of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L. Compared with an initiation threshold of 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L, a threshold of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1200 per year of life saved.Results of sensitivity analysisInitiating ART at a CD4 count less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L would remain cost-effective over the next 5 years even if the probability that the trial would demonstrate the superiority of earlier therapy is as low as 17%.LimitationThis model does not consider the possible benefits of initiating ART at a CD4 count greater than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L or of reduced HIV transmission.ConclusionEarlier initiation of ART in South Africa will probably reduce morbidity and mortality, improve long-term survival, and be cost-effective. While awaiting trial results, treatment guidelines should be liberalized to allow initiation at CD4 counts less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L, earlier than is currently recommended.Primary funding sourceNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundThe anticipated scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-prevalence, resource-constrained settings requires operational research to guide policy on the design of treatment programmes. Mathematical models can explore the potential impacts of various treatment strategies, including timing of treatment initiation and provision of laboratory monitoring facilities, to complement evidence from pilot programmes.Methods and findingsA deterministic model of HIV transmission incorporating ART and stratifying infection progression into stages was constructed. The impact of ART was evaluated for various scenarios and treatment strategies, with different levels of coverage, patient eligibility, and other parameter values. These strategies included the provision of laboratory facilities that perform CD4 counts and viral load testing, and the timing of the stage of infection at which treatment is initiated. In our analysis, unlimited ART provision initiated at late-stage infection (AIDS) increased prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of additionally treating pre-AIDS patients depended on the behaviour change of treated patients. Different coverage levels for ART do not affect benefits such as life-years gained per person-year of treatment and have minimal effect on infections averted when treating AIDS patients only. Scaling up treatment of pre-AIDS patients resulted in more infections being averted per person-year of treatment, but the absolute number of infections averted remained small. As coverage increased in the models, the emergence and risk of spread of drug resistance increased. Withdrawal of failing treatment (clinical resurgence of symptoms), immunologic (CD4 count decline), or virologic failure (viral rebound) increased the number of infected individuals who could benefit from ART, but effectiveness per person is compromised. Only withdrawal at a very early stage of treatment failure, soon after viral rebound, would have a substantial impact on emergence of drug resistance.ConclusionsOur analysis found that ART cannot be seen as a direct transmission prevention measure, regardless of the degree of coverage. Counselling of patients to promote safe sexual practices is essential and must aim to effect long-term change. The chief aims of an ART programme, such as maximised number of patients treated or optimised treatment per patient, will determine which treatment strategy is most effective.

Project description:IntroductionCurrent guidelines by WHO for cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries involves visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) of the cervix, followed by treatment during the same visit or a subsequent visit with cryotherapy if a suspicious lesion is found. Implementation of these guidelines is hampered by a lack of: trained health workers, reliable technology, and access to screening facilities. A low cost ultra-portable Point of Care Tampon based digital colposcope (POCkeT Colposcope) for use at the community level setting, which has the unique form factor of a tampon, can be inserted into the vagina to capture images of the cervix, which are on par with that of a state of the art colposcope, at a fraction of the cost. A repository of images to be compiled that can be used to empower front line workers to become more effective through virtual dynamic training. By task shifting to the community setting, this technology could potentially provide significantly greater cervical screening access to where the most vulnerable women live. The POCkeT Colposcope's concentric LED ring provides comparable white and green field illumination at a fraction of the electrical power required in commercial colposcopes. Evaluation with standard optical imaging targets to assess the POCkeT Colposcope against the state of the art digital colposcope and other VIAM technologies.ResultsOur POCkeT Colposcope has comparable resolving power, color reproduction accuracy, minimal lens distortion, and illumination when compared to commercially available colposcopes. In vitro and pilot in vivo imaging results are promising with our POCkeT Colposcope capturing comparable quality images to commercial systems.ConclusionThe POCkeT Colposcope is capable of capturing images suitable for cervical lesion analysis. Our portable low cost system could potentially increase access to cervical cancer screening in limited resource settings through task shifting to community health workers.

Dataset Information

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study.

Publications

Cost-effectiveness of point-of-care viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings: mathematical modelling study.

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