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Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

ABSTRACT: There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has caused price increases or volatility. The statement is supported by a recently published literature review, which concludes that financial speculation does not have an adverse effect on the functioning of the agricultural commodities market. As public health professionals concerned with global food insecurity, we have appraised the methodological quality of the review using a validated and reliable appraisal tool. The appraisal revealed major shortcomings in the methodological quality of the review. These were particularly related to intransparencies in the search strategy and in the selection/presentation of studies and findings; the neglect of the possibility of publication bias; a lack of objective or rigorous criteria for assessing the scientific quality of included studies and for the formulation of conclusions. Based on the results of our appraisal, we conclude that it is not justified to reject the hypothesis that financial speculation might have adverse effects on food prices/price volatility. We hope to initiate reflections about scientific standards beyond the boundaries of disciplines and call for high quality, rigorous systematic reviews on the effects of financial speculation on food prices or price volatility.

SUBMITTER: Bozorgmehr K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3819662 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

Bozorgmehr Kayvan K Gabrysch Sabine S Müller Olaf O Neuhann Florian F Jordan Irmgard I Knipper Michael M Razum Oliver O

Globalization and health 20131016

There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has caused price increases or volatility. The statement is supported by a recently published literature review ...[more]

PMID: 24131565

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Project description:BackgroundAs part of the initiatives to increase price transparency for consumers, pharmaceutical industry in Malaysia have been encouraged to declare the wholesale and recommended retail prices (RRP) of medicines to the Pharmaceutical Service Department (PSD) yearly. However, the relationship between the voluntary price reporting practices and consumers' retail medicine price is unknown. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effect of the voluntary price reporting practice of pharmaceutical industry on retail medicine prices, factors that may affect consumer medicine prices in Malaysia's private healthcare sector, and the retail medicine pricing trend over 2011-2015.MethodsA yearly correlation test for a 5-year period was performed to investigate the association between the wholesale and RRP medicine prices declared by the pharmaceutical industry from 2011 to 2015 on the one hand and the consumer wholesale and retail medicine price database on the other hand. The median price ratio (MPR) was calculated by comparing the consumer retail medicine price to its international reference price. The Krukal Wallis test was used to analyse the pricing trend throughout the 5-year period, and factors that might elevate the MPR above 2.5 were modelled using binary logistic regression.ResultsA total of 2527 medicine price data were analysed. There was a strong significant association between medicine prices declared to the PSD and the retail medicine prices in every year of the 5-year period. Moreover, there was no significant increase in retail medicine prices throughout the 5-year period. The medicine types, retail location, type of manufacturer, medicinal indications, declared wholesale and RRPs significantly influenced the consumer MPRs that where > 2.5.ConclusionThe declared medicine price was found to have a significant association with the consumer retail medicine price. Thus, it may be a useful reference for consumers purchasing medicines in private healthcare settings. However, the government of Malaysia must develop strategies to increase medicine price transparency for price-control mechanisms in the private healthcare sector.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral governments apply the policy of external price referencing (EPR), which considers the prices of a medicine in one or more other countries for the purpose of setting the price in the own country. Different methodological choices can be taken to design EPR. The study aimed to analyse whether, or not, and how changes in the methodology of EPR can impact medicine prices.MethodsThe real-life EPR methodology as of Q1/2015 was surveyed in all European Union Member States (where applicable), Iceland, Norway and Switzerland through a questionnaire responded by national pricing authorities. Different scenarios were developed related to the parameters of the EPR methodology. Discrete-event simulations of fictitious prices in the 28 countries of the study that had EPR were run over 10 years. The continuation of the real-life EPR methodology in the countries as surveyed in 2015, without any change, served as base case.ResultsIn most scenarios, after 10 years, medicine prices in all or most surveyed countries were-sometimes considerably-lower than in the base case scenario. But in a few scenarios medicine prices increased in some countries. Consideration of discounts (an assumed 20% discount in five large economies and the mandatory discount in Germany, Greece and Ireland) and determining the reference price based on the lowest price in the country basket would result in higher price reductions (on average - 47.2% and - 34.2% compared to the base case). An adjustment of medicine price data of the reference countries by purchasing power parities would lead to higher prices in some more affluent countries (e.g. Switzerland, Norway) and lower prices in lower-income economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland). Regular price revisions and changes in the basket of reference countries would also impact medicine prices, however to a lesser extent.ConclusionsEPR has some potential for cost-containment. Medicine prices could be decreased if certain parameters of the EPR methodology were changed. If public payers aim to apply EPR to keep medicine prices at more affordable levels, they are encouraged to explore the cost-containment potential of this policy by taking appropriate methodological choices in the EPR design.

Dataset Information

Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

Publications

Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

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