Dataset Information

Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

ABSTRACT: Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of future reef state under alternative management and climatic scenarios, but to date few have been sufficiently developed to be useful as decision support tools for local management of coral reefs subject to multiple stressors. We used a simulation model of coral reefs to investigate the extent to which the management of local stressors (namely poor water quality and fishing) might influence future reef state under varying climatic scenarios relating to coral bleaching. We parameterised the model for Bolinao, the Philippines, and explored how simulation modelling can be used to provide decision support for local management. We found that management of water quality, and to a lesser extent fishing, can have a significant impact on future reef state, including coral recovery following bleaching-induced mortality. The stressors we examined interacted antagonistically to affect reef state, highlighting the importance of considering the combined impact of multiple stressors rather than considering them individually. Further, by providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, such as which course of management action will most likely to be effective over what time scales and at which sites, we demonstrated the utility of simulation models for supporting management. Aside from providing explicit guidance for management of Bolinao's reef system, our study offers insights which could inform reef management more broadly, as well as general understanding of reef systems.

SUBMITTER: Gurney GG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3832406 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

Gurney Georgina G GG Melbourne-Thomas Jessica J Geronimo Rollan C RC Aliño Perry M PM Johnson Craig R CR

PloS one 20131118 11

Climate change has emerged as a principal threat to coral reefs, and is expected to exacerbate coral reef degradation caused by more localised stressors. Management of local stressors is widely advocated to bolster coral reef resilience, but the extent to which management of local stressors might affect future trajectories of reef state remains unclear. This is in part because of limited understanding of the cumulative impact of multiple stressors. Models are ideal tools to aid understanding of ...[more]

PMID: 24260347

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Project description:Globally increasing sea surface temperatures threaten coral reefs, both directly and through interactions with local stressors. More resilient reefs have a higher likelihood of returning to a coral-dominated state following a disturbance, such as a mass bleaching event. To advance practical approaches to reef resilience assessments and aid resilience-based management of coral reefs, we conducted a resilience assessment for Puerto Rico's coral reefs, modified from methods used in other U.S. jurisdictions. We calculated relative resilience scores for 103 sites from an existing commonwealth-wide survey using eight resilience indicators-such as coral diversity, macroalgae percent cover, and herbivorous fish biomass-and assessed which indicators most drove resilience. We found that sites of very different relative resilience were generally highly spatially intermixed, underscoring the importance and necessity of decision making and management at fine scales. In combination with information on levels of two localized stressors (fishing pressure and pollution exposure), we used the resilience indicators to assess which of seven potential management actions could be used at each site to maintain or improve resilience. Fishery management was the management action that applied to the most sites. Furthermore, we combined sites' resilience scores with projected ocean warming to assign sites to vulnerability categories. Island-wide or community-level managers can use the actions and vulnerability information as a starting point for resilience-based management of their reefs. This assessment differs from many previous ones because we tested how much information could be yielded by a "desktop" assessment using freely-available, existing data rather than from a customized, resilience-focused field survey. The available data still permitted analyses comparable to previous assessments, demonstrating that desktop resilience assessments can substitute for assessments with field components under some circumstances.

Project description:Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.

Project description:The nation of Antigua and Barbuda has experienced major degradation of its coral reef ecosystems over the past 40+ years. The primary drivers of this degradation are multiple and are highly linked to anthropogenic influences, including over-exploitation and poor management of marine resources. The effectiveness of management actions in marine protected areas (MPAs) has often been hampered by a lack of data to inform management recommendations. This was emphasized by The Nature Conservancy's (TNC) Coral Reef Report Card which highlighted not only the lack of data collection in Antigua and Barbuda and other Caribbean nations, but also illustrated how spatially dispersed available datasets are. The government of Antigua and Barbuda recognized the need for a marine data collection program to better inform the designation and management of MPAs as a tool to improve the health of the marine ecosystems. The Atlantic Gulf Rapid Reef Assessment (AGRRA) protocol has been identified as a means to address planning and management for marine areas. Three AGRRA surveys have been conducted in the years following the TNC 2016 report, in previously established managed areas: North East Marine Management Area (NEMMA) in 2017 and Nelson Dockyard National Park (NDNP) in 2019 as well as areas outlined for future management (Redonda in 2018). Our surveys were conducted to provide updated datasets to inform management for the aforementioned areas. While the results of these surveys mirror the underlying poor coral reef-health conditions, which have been shown to exist within the Caribbean region, they also highlight intra-site variation that exists within each survey location. This knowledge can be crucial in guiding management decisions in these marine areas, through zoning and other management prescriptions. Additionally, the marine surveys conducted around Redonda established useful marine baselines to aid in monitoring the island's recovery following removal of terrestrial invasive species. This article provides an overview of data collected using the AGRRA methodology in marine zones across Antigua and Barbuda which have current or future management prescriptions and provides recommendations to demonstrate the data's future utilization for marine conservation and management.

Dataset Information

Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

Publications

Modelling coral reef futures to inform management: can reducing local-scale stressors conserve reefs under climate change?

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