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Shifting distributions of adult Atlantic sturgeon amidst post-industrialization and future impacts in the Delaware River: a maximum entropy approach.

ABSTRACT: Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) experienced severe declines due to habitat destruction and overfishing beginning in the late 19(th) century. Subsequent to the boom and bust period of exploitation, there has been minimal fishing pressure and improving habitats. However, lack of recovery led to the 2012 listing of Atlantic sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act. Although habitats may be improving, the availability of high quality spawning habitat, essential for the survival and development of eggs and larvae may still be a limiting factor in the recovery of Atlantic sturgeon. To estimate adult Atlantic sturgeon spatial distributions during riverine occupancy in the Delaware River, we utilized a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach along with passive biotelemetry during the likely spawning season. We found that substrate composition and distance from the salt front significantly influenced the locations of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. To broaden the scope of this study we projected our model onto four scenarios depicting varying locations of the salt front in the Delaware River: the contemporary location of the salt front during the likely spawning season, the location of the salt front during the historic fishery in the late 19(th) century, an estimated shift in the salt front by the year 2100 due to climate change, and an extreme drought scenario, similar to that which occurred in the 1960's. The movement of the salt front upstream as a result of dredging and climate change likely eliminated historic spawning habitats and currently threatens areas where Atlantic sturgeon spawning may be taking place. Identifying where suitable spawning substrate and water chemistry intersect with the likely occurrence of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River highlights essential spawning habitats, enhancing recovery prospects for this imperiled species.

SUBMITTER: Breece MW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3832663 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Shifting distributions of adult Atlantic sturgeon amidst post-industrialization and future impacts in the Delaware River: a maximum entropy approach.

Breece Matthew W MW Oliver Matthew J MJ Cimino Megan A MA Fox Dewayne A DA

PloS one 20131108 11

Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) experienced severe declines due to habitat destruction and overfishing beginning in the late 19(th) century. Subsequent to the boom and bust period of exploitation, there has been minimal fishing pressure and improving habitats. However, lack of recovery led to the 2012 listing of Atlantic sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act. Although habitats may be improving, the availability of high quality spawning habitat, essential for the survival ...[more]

PMID: 24260570

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Project description:Atlantic Sturgeon is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as five Distinct Population Segments (DPS). The "endangered" New York Bight (NYB) DPS is thought to only harbor two populations; one in the Hudson River and a second smaller one in the Delaware River. Historically, the Connecticut River probably supported a spawning population of Atlantic Sturgeon that was believed extirpated many decades ago. In 2014, we successfully collected pre-migratory juvenile specimens from the lower Connecticut River which were subjected to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequence and microsatellite analyses to determine their genetic relatedness to other populations coastwide. Haplotype and allelic frequencies differed significantly between the Connecticut River collection and all other populations coastwide. Sibship analyses of the microsatellite data indicated that the Connecticut River collection was comprised of a small number of families that were likely the offspring of a limited number of breeders. This was supported by analysis of effective population size (Ne) and number of breeders (Nb). STRUCTURE analysis suggested that there were 11 genetic clusters among the coastwide collections and that from the Connecticut River was distinct from those in all other rivers. This was supported by UPGMA analyses of the microsatellite data. In AMOVA analyses, among region variation was maximized, and among population within regions variation minimized when the Connecticut River collection was separate from the other two populations in the NYB DPS indicating the dissimilarity between the Connecticut River collection and the other two populations in the NYB DPS. Use of mixed stock analysis indicated that the Connecticut River juvenile collection was comprised of specimens primarily of South Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay DPS origins. The most parsimonious explanation for these results is that the Connecticut River hosted successful natural reproduction in 2013 and that its offspring were descendants of a small number of colonizers from populations south of the NYB DPS, most notably the South Atlantic DPS. Our results run contrary to the belief that re-colonizers of extirpated populations primarily originate in proximal populations.

Project description:When constructing discrete (binned) distributions from samples of a data set, applications exist where it is desirable to assure that all bins of the sample distribution have nonzero probability. For example, if the sample distribution is part of a predictive model for which we require returning a response for the entire codomain, or if we use Kullback-Leibler divergence to measure the (dis-)agreement of the sample distribution and the original distribution of the variable, which, in the described case, is inconveniently infinite. Several sample-based distribution estimators exist which assure nonzero bin probability, such as adding one counter to each zero-probability bin of the sample histogram, adding a small probability to the sample pdf, smoothing methods such as Kernel-density smoothing, or Bayesian approaches based on the Dirichlet and Multinomial distribution. Here, we suggest and test an approach based on the Clopper-Pearson method, which makes use of the binominal distribution. Based on the sample distribution, confidence intervals for bin-occupation probability are calculated. The mean of each confidence interval is a strictly positive estimator of the true bin-occupation probability and is convergent with increasing sample size. For small samples, it converges towards a uniform distribution, i.e., the method effectively applies a maximum entropy approach. We apply this nonzero method and four alternative sample-based distribution estimators to a range of typical distributions (uniform, Dirac, normal, multimodal, and irregular) and measure the effect with Kullback-Leibler divergence. While the performance of each method strongly depends on the distribution type it is applied to, on average, and especially for small sample sizes, the nonzero, the simple "add one counter", and the Bayesian Dirichlet-multinomial model show very similar behavior and perform best. We conclude that, when estimating distributions without an a priori idea of their shape, applying one of these methods is favorable.

Project description:Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus, Acipenseridae) populations are currently at severely depleted levels due to historic overfishing, habitat loss, and pollution. The importance of biologically correct stock structure for effective conservation and management efforts is well known. Recent improvements in our understanding of Atlantic sturgeon migrations, movement, and the occurrence of putative dual spawning groups leads to questions regarding the true stock structure of this endangered species. In the James River, VA specifically, captures of spawning Atlantic sturgeon and accompanying telemetry data suggest there are two discrete spawning groups of Atlantic sturgeon. The two putative spawning groups were genetically evaluated using a powerful microsatellite marker suite to determine if they are genetically distinct. Specifically, this study evaluates the genetic structure, characterizes the genetic diversity, estimates effective population size, and measures inbreeding of Atlantic sturgeon in the James River. The results indicate that fall and spring spawning James River Atlantic sturgeon groups are genetically distinct (overall FST = 0.048, F'ST = 0.181) with little admixture between the groups. The observed levels of genetic diversity and effective population sizes along with the lack of detected inbreeding all indicated that the James River has two genetically healthy populations of Atlantic sturgeon. The study also demonstrates that samples from adult Atlantic sturgeon, with proper sample selection criteria, can be informative when creating reference population databases. The presence of two genetically-distinct spawning groups of Atlantic sturgeon within the James River raises concerns about the current genetic assignment used by managers. Other nearby rivers may also have dual spawning groups that either are not accounted for or are pooled in reference databases. Our results represent the second documentation of genetically distinct dual spawning groups of Atlantic sturgeon in river systems along the U.S. Atlantic coast, suggesting that current reference population database should be updated to incorporate both new samples and our increased understanding of Atlantic sturgeon life history.

Dataset Information

Shifting distributions of adult Atlantic sturgeon amidst post-industrialization and future impacts in the Delaware River: a maximum entropy approach.

Publications

Shifting distributions of adult Atlantic sturgeon amidst post-industrialization and future impacts in the Delaware River: a maximum entropy approach.

Similar Datasets

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