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Braess's paradox in epidemic game: better condition results in less payoff.

ABSTRACT: Facing the threats of infectious diseases, we take various actions to protect ourselves, but few studies considered an evolving system with competing strategies. In view of that, we propose an evolutionary epidemic model coupled with human behaviors, where individuals have three strategies: vaccination, self-protection and laissez faire, and could adjust their strategies according to their neighbors' strategies and payoffs at the beginning of each new season of epidemic spreading. We found a counter-intuitive phenomenon analogous to the well-known Braess's Paradox, namely a better condition may lead to worse performance. Specifically speaking, increasing the successful rate of self-protection does not necessarily reduce the epidemic size or improve the system payoff. The range and degree of the Braess's Paradox are sensitive to both the parameters characterizing the epidemic spreading and the strategy payoff, while the existence of the Braess's Paradox is insensitive to the network topologies. This phenomenon can be well explained by a mean-field approximation. Our study demonstrates an important fact that a better condition for individuals may yield a worse outcome for the society.

SUBMITTER: Zhang HF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3836038 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Braess's paradox in epidemic game: better condition results in less payoff.

Zhang Hai-Feng HF Yang Zimo Z Wu Zhi-Xi ZX Wang Bing-Hong BH Zhou Tao T

Scientific reports 20131121

Facing the threats of infectious diseases, we take various actions to protect ourselves, but few studies considered an evolving system with competing strategies. In view of that, we propose an evolutionary epidemic model coupled with human behaviors, where individuals have three strategies: vaccination, self-protection and laissez faire, and could adjust their strategies according to their neighbors' strategies and payoffs at the beginning of each new season of epidemic spreading. We found a cou ...[more]

PMID: 24256996

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Project description:ObjectivesCurrently, most treatment guidelines suggest lowering hypertriglyceridemia of any severity, even in elderly individuals. However associations of serum triglycerides (TGs) with adverse health and mortality risk decrease with age, it remains unclear among the oldest old (aged 80 years and older). The study was to investigate the relationship of serum TG concentrations with cognitive function, activities of daily living (ADLs), frailty, and mortality among the oldest old in a prospective cohort study.DesignLongitudinal prospective cohort study.SettingCommunity-based setting in longevity areas in China.ParticipantsA total of 930 (mean age = 94.0 years) Chinese oldest old.MeasurementsThe TG concentrations were measured at baseline survey in 2009. Cognitive function, ADLs, frailty, and mortality were determined over 5 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk models were performed to explore the association, adjusting for potential confounders.ResultsEach 1-mmol/L increase in TGs was associated with a nearly 20% lower risk of cognitive decline, ADL decline, and frailty aggravation during the 5 years of follow-up. Consistently, higher TGs (each 1 mmol/L) was associated with lower 5-year all-cause mortality after fully adjustment (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.89). Nonelevated TG concentrations (less than 2.26 mmol/L) were associated with higher mortality risk (HR = 1.72; 95% CI = 1.22-2.44), relative to TGs of 2.26 mmol/L or more. We observed similar results regarding TG concentrations and mortality in 1-year lag analysis and when excluding participants with identified chronic disease.ConclusionIn the oldest old, a higher concentration of TGs was associated with a lower risk of cognitive decline, ADL decline, frailty aggravation, and mortality. This paradox suggests the clinical importance of revisiting the concept of "the lower the better" for the oldest old. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:741-748, 2019.

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Braess's paradox in epidemic game: better condition results in less payoff.

Publications

Braess's paradox in epidemic game: better condition results in less payoff.

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