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Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

ABSTRACT: CONTEXT:The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking. OBJECTIVE:To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS:A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ? 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years). RESULTS:Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (?90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ?65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts. CONCLUSION:The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

SUBMITTER: Matsushita K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3837430 | biostudies-literature | 2012 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Matsushita Kunihiro K Mahmoodi Bakhtawar K BK Woodward Mark M Emberson Jonathan R JR Jafar Tazeen H TH Jee Sun Ha SH Polkinghorne Kevan R KR Shankar Anoop A Smith David H DH Tonelli Marcello M Warnock David G DG Wen Chi-Pang CP Coresh Josef J Gansevoort Ron T RT Hemmelgarn Brenda R BR Levey Andrew S AS

JAMA 20120501 18

<h4>Context</h4>The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking.<h4>Objective</h4>To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a ...[more]

PMID: 22570462

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Project description:BackgroundGlomerular filtration rate (GFR) is accepted as the best indicator of kidney function and is commonly estimated from serum creatinine (SCr)-based equations. Separate equations have been developed for children (Schwartz equation), younger and middle-age adults [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation] and older adults [Berlin Initiative Study 1 (BIS1) equation], and these equations lack continuity with ageing. We developed and validated an equation for estimating the glomerular filtration rate that can be used across the full age spectrum (FAS).MethodsThe new FAS equation is based on normalized serum creatinine (SCr/Q), where Q is the median SCr from healthy populations to account for age and sex. Coefficients for the equation are mathematically obtained by requiring continuity during the paediatric-adult and adult-elderly transition. Research studies containing a total of 6870 healthy and kidney-diseased white individuals, including 735 children, <18 years of age, 4371 adults, between 18 and 70 years of age, and 1764 older adults, ?70 years of age with measured GFR (inulin, iohexol and iothalamate clearance) and isotope dilution mass spectrometry-equivalent SCr, were used for the validation. Bias, precision and accuracy (P30) were evaluated.ResultsThe FAS equation was less biased [-1.7 (95% CI -3.4, -0.2) versus 6.0 (4.5, 7.5)] and more accurate [87.5% (85.1, 89.9) versus 83.8% (81.1, 86.5)] than the Schwartz equation for children and adolescents; less biased [5.0 (4.5, 5.5) versus 6.3 (5.9, 6.8)] and as accurate [81.6% (80.4, 82.7) versus 81.9% (80.7, 83.0)] as the CKD-EPI equation for young and middle-age adults; and less biased [-1.1 (-1.6, -0.6) versus 5.6 (5.1, 6.2)] and more accurate [86.1% (84.4, 87.7) versus 81.8% (79.7, 84.0)] than CKD-EPI for older adults.ConclusionsThe FAS equation has improved validity and continuity across the full age-spectrum and overcomes the problem of implausible eGFR changes in patients which would otherwise occur when switching between more age-specific equations.

Project description:BackgroundThe Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently published an equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the same variables (serum creatinine level, age, sex, and race) as the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. Although the CKD-EPI equation estimates GFR more precisely compared with the MDRD Study equation, whether this equation improves risk prediction is unknown.Study designProspective cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.Setting & participants13,905 middle-aged participants without a history of cardiovascular disease with median follow-up of 16.9 years.PredictoreGFR.Outcomes & measurementsWe compared the association of eGFR in categories (>or=120, 90-119, 60-89, 30-59, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) using the CKD-EPI and MDRD Study equations with risk of incident end-stage renal disease, all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease, and stroke.ResultsThe median value for eGFR(CKD-EPI) was higher than that for eGFR(MDRD) (97.6 vs 88.8 mL/min/1.73 m(2); P < 0.001). The CKD-EPI equation reclassified 44.9% (n = 3,079) and 43.5% (n = 151) of participants with eGFR(MDRD) of 60-89 and 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively, upward to a higher eGFR category, but reclassified no one with eGFR(MDRD) of 90-119 or <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2), decreasing the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 from 2.7% to 1.6%. Participants with eGFR(MDRD) of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) who were reclassified upward had lower risk compared with those who were not reclassified (end-stage renal disease incidence rate ratio, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.03-0.33]; all-cause mortality, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.19-0.48]; coronary heart disease, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.21-0.61]; and stroke, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.24-1.02]). Similar results were observed for participants with eGFR(MDRD) of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m(2). More frequent reclassification of younger, female, and white participants explained some of these trends. Net reclassification improvement in participants with eGFR < 120 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was positive for all outcomes (P < 0.001).LimitationsLimited number of cases with eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and no measurement of albuminuria.ConclusionsThe CKD-EPI equation more appropriately categorized individuals with respect to long-term clinical risk compared with the MDRD Study equation, suggesting improved clinical usefulness in this middle-aged population.

Project description:ObjectiveTo compare the performance of a newly developed race-free kidney recipient specific glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equation with the three current main equations for measuring GFR in kidney transplant recipients.DesignDevelopment and validation study SETTING: 17 cohorts in Europe, the United States, and Australia (14 transplant centres, three clinical trials).Participants15 489 adults (3622 in development cohort (Necker, Saint Louis, and Toulouse hospitals, France), 11 867 in multiple external validation cohorts) who received kidney transplants between 1 January 2000 and 1 January 2021.Main outcome measureThe main outcome measure was GFR, measured according to local practice. Performance of the GFR equations was assessed using P30 (proportion of estimated GFR (eGFR) within 30% of measured GFR (mGFR)) and correct classification (agreement between eGFR and mGFR according to GFR stages). The race-free equation, based on creatinine level, age, and sex, was developed using additive and multiplicative linear regressions, and its performance was compared with the three current main GFR equations: Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) 2009 equation, and race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation.ResultsThe study included 15 489 participants, with 50 464 mGFR and eGFR values. The mean GFR was 53.18 mL/min/1.73m2 (SD 17.23) in the development cohort and 55.90 mL/min/1.73m2 (19.69) in the external validation cohorts. Among the current GFR equations, the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation showed the lowest performance compared with the MDRD and CKD-EPI 2009 equations. When race was included in the kidney recipient specific GFR equation, performance did not increase. The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation showed significantly improved performance compared with the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation and performed well in the external validation cohorts (P30 ranging from 73.0% to 91.3%). The race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation performed well in several subpopulations of kidney transplant recipients stratified by race (P30 73.0-91.3%), sex (72.7-91.4%), age (70.3-92.0%), body mass index (64.5-100%), donor type (58.5-92.9%), donor age (68.3-94.3%), treatment (78.5-85.2%), creatinine level (72.8-91.3%), GFR measurement method (73.0-91.3%), and timing of GFR measurement post-transplant (72.9-95.5%). An online application was developed that estimates GFR based on recipient's creatinine level, age, and sex (https://transplant-prediction-system.shinyapps.io/eGFR_equation_KTX/).ConclusionA new race-free kidney recipient specific GFR equation was developed and validated using multiple, large, international cohorts of kidney transplant recipients. The equation showed high accuracy and outperformed the race-free CKD-EPI 2021 equation that was developed in individuals with native kidneys.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT05229939.

Project description:BackgroundEquations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are routinely used to assess kidney function. Current equations have limited precision and systematically underestimate measured GFR at higher values.ObjectiveTo develop a new estimating equation for GFR: the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation.DesignCross-sectional analysis with separate pooled data sets for equation development and validation and a representative sample of the U.S. population for prevalence estimates.SettingResearch studies and clinical populations ("studies") with measured GFR and NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1999 to 2006.Participants8254 participants in 10 studies (equation development data set) and 3896 participants in 16 studies (validation data set). Prevalence estimates were based on 16,032 participants in NHANES.MeasurementsGFR, measured as the clearance of exogenous filtration markers (iothalamate in the development data set; iothalamate and other markers in the validation data set), and linear regression to estimate the logarithm of measured GFR from standardized creatinine levels, sex, race, and age.ResultsIn the validation data set, the CKD-EPI equation performed better than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation, especially at higher GFR (P < 0.001 for all subsequent comparisons), with less bias (median difference between measured and estimated GFR, 2.5 vs. 5.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), improved precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the differences, 16.6 vs. 18.3 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), and greater accuracy (percentage of estimated GFR within 30% of measured GFR, 84.1% vs. 80.6%). In NHANES, the median estimated GFR was 94.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (IQR, 79.7 to 108.1) vs. 85.0 (IQR, 72.9 to 98.5) mL/min per 1.73 m(2), and the prevalence of chronic kidney disease was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.6% to 12.4%) versus 13.1% (CI, 12.1% to 14.0%).LimitationThe sample contained a limited number of elderly people and racial and ethnic minorities with measured GFR.ConclusionThe CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation and could replace it for routine clinical use.Primary funding sourceNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

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Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

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Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

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