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Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) living along a temperature gradient at the warmest thermal edge of its range. We developed a carrying capacity model in which maximum population size is limited by physical habitat conditions and regulated through territoriality. We first tested whether population numbers were driven by carrying capacity dynamics and then targeted on establishing (1) the temperature thresholds beyond which population numbers switch from being physical habitat- to temperature-limited; and (2) the rate at which carrying capacity declines with temperature within limiting thermal ranges. Carrying capacity along with emergent density-dependent responses explained up to 76% of spatio-temporal density variability of juveniles and adults but only 50% of young-of-the-year's. By contrast, young-of-the-year trout were highly sensitive to thermal conditions, their performance declining with temperature at a higher rate than older life stages, and disruptions being triggered at lower temperature thresholds. Results suggest that limiting temperature effects were progressively stronger with increasing anthropogenic disturbance. There was however a critical threshold, matching the incipient thermal limit for survival, beyond which realized density was always below potential numbers irrespective of disturbance intensity. We additionally found a lower threshold, matching the thermal limit for feeding, beyond which even unaltered populations declined. We predict that most of our study populations may become extinct by 2100, depicting the gloomy fate of thermally-sensitive species occurring at thermal range margins under limited potential for adaptation and dispersal.

SUBMITTER: Ayllon D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3840006 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

Ayllón Daniel D Nicola Graciela G GG Elvira Benigno B Parra Irene I Almodóvar Ana A

PloS one 20131125 11

Anthropogenic environmental change is causing unprecedented rates of population extirpation and altering the setting of range limits for many species. Significant population declines may occur however before any reduction in range is observed. Determining and modelling the factors driving population size and trends is consequently critical to predict trajectories of change and future extinction risk. We tracked during 12 years 51 populations of a cold-water fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta ...[more]

PMID: 24282584

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Project description:Changes in species' trophic niches due to habitat degradation can affect intra- and interspecific competition, with implications for biodiversity persistence. Difficulties of measuring species' interactions in the field limit our comprehension of competition outcomes along disturbance gradients. Thus, information on how habitat degradation can destabilize food webs is scarce, hindering predictions regarding responses of multispecies systems to environmental changes. Seagrass ecosystems are undergoing degradation. We address effects of Posidonia oceanica coverage reduction on the trophic organization of a macroinvertebrate community in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy), hypothesizing increased trophic generalism, niche overlap among species and thus competition and decreased community stability due to degraded conditions. Census data, isotopic analysis, and Bayesian mixing models were used to quantify the trophic niches of three abundant invertebrate species, and intra- and interspecific isotopic and resource-use similarity across locations differing in seagrass coverage. This allowed the computation of (1) competition strength, with respect to each other and remaining less abundant species and (2) habitat carrying capacity. To explore effects of the spatial scale on the interactions, we considered both individual locations and the entire study area ("'meadow scale"). We observed that community stability and habitat carrying capacity decreased as P. oceanica coverage declined, whereas niche width, similarity of resource use and interspecific competition strength between species increased. Competition was stronger, and stability lower, at the meadow scale than at the location scale. Indirect effects of competition and the spatial compartmentalization of species interactions increased stability. Results emphasized the importance of trophic niche modifications for understanding effects of habitat loss on biodiversity persistence. Calculation of competition coefficients based on isotopic distances is a promising tool for describing competitive interactions in real communities, potentially extendible to any subset of ecological niche axes for which specimens' positions and pairwise distances can be obtained.

Project description:Background and aimsStudies on oaks (Quercus spp.) have often been hampered by taxonomic confusion, a situation further compounded by the occurrence of extensive interspecific hybridization. In the present study, a combination of genetic and morphological analyses was used to examine sympatric populations of Q. petraea and Q. robur at the north-western edge of their ranges in Northern Ireland, since it had previously been suggested that hybridization could facilitate the apparent rapid, long-distance dispersal of oaks following the glaciations.MethodsSamples were collected from 24 sites across Northern Ireland that had been previously designated as ancient or semi-natural woodland. Genotypes were obtained from a total of 950 trees using 12 nuclear microsatellite loci, and admixture coefficients were calculated based on a Bayesian clustering approach. Individuals were also classified as Q. petraea,Q. robur or hybrids based on two objective morphometric characters shown previously to delineate pure individuals effectively. Genetically 'pure' individuals of both species, as defined by the Bayesian clustering, were also genotyped for five chloroplast microsatellites.Key resultsGenetic and morphological analyses both indicated the presence of pure individuals of both species, as well as a continuum of intermediates. There was a good agreement between the molecular and morphological classification, with a generally clear separation between pure individuals.ConclusionsDespite millennia of hybridization and introgression, genetically and morphologically pure individuals of both Q. petraea and Q. robur can be found at the edge of their range, where both species occur sympatrically. The high proportion of individuals exhibiting introgression compared with previous studies may reflect the historical role of hybridization in facilitating dispersal following the glaciations. This is further supported by the significantly higher chloroplast diversity in Q. robur compared with Q. petraea.

Project description:BackgroundSpecies thermal requirements are one of the principal determinants of their ecology and biogeography, although our understanding of the interplay between these factors is limited by the paucity of integrative empirical studies. Here we use empirically collected thermal tolerance data in combination with molecular phylogenetics/phylogeography and ecological niche modelling to study the evolution of a clade of three western Mediterranean diving beetles, the Agabus brunneus complex.ResultsThe preferred mitochondrial DNA topology recovered A. ramblae (North Africa, east Iberia and Balearic islands) as paraphyletic, with A. brunneus (widespread in the southwestern Mediterranean) and A. rufulus (Corsica and Sardinia) nested within it, with an estimated origin between 0.60-0.25 Ma. All three species were, however, recovered as monophyletic using nuclear DNA markers. A Bayesian skyline plot suggested demographic expansion in the clade at the onset of the last glacial cycle. The species thermal tolerances differ significantly, with A. brunneus able to tolerate lower temperatures than the other taxa. The climatic niche of the three species also differs, with A. ramblae occupying more arid and seasonal areas, with a higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. The estimated potential distribution for both A. brunneus and A. ramblae was most restricted in the last interglacial, becoming increasingly wider through the last glacial and the Holocene.ConclusionsThe A. brunneus complex diversified in the late Pleistocene, most likely in south Iberia after colonization from Morocco. Insular forms did not differentiate substantially in morphology or ecology, but A. brunneus evolved a wider tolerance to cold, which appeared to have facilitated its geographic expansion. Both A. brunneus and A. ramblae expanded their ranges during the last glacial, although they have not occupied areas beyond their LGM potential distribution except for isolated populations of A. brunneus in France and England. On the islands and possibly Tunisia secondary contact between A. brunneus and A. ramblae or A. rufulus has resulted in introgression. Our work highlights the complex dynamics of speciation and range expansions within southern areas during the last glacial cycle, and points to the often neglected role of North Africa as a source of European biodiversity.

Dataset Information

Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

Publications

Thermal carrying capacity for a thermally-sensitive species at the warmest edge of its range.

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