Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prediction rule using the Oxford classification in IgA nephropathy.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objectives

The risk assessment for developing ESRD remains limited in patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction rule for estimating the individual risk of ESRD in patients with IgAN.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

A total of 698 patients with IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy at Kyushu University Hospital (derivation cohort) between 1982 and 2010 were retrospectively followed. The Oxford classification was used to evaluate the pathologic lesions. The risk factors for developing ESRD were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model with a stepwise backward elimination method. The prediction rule was verified using data from 702 patients diagnosed at Japanese Red Cross Fukuoka Hospital (validation cohort) between 1979 and 2002.

Results

In the derivation cohort, 73 patients developed ESRD during the median 4.7-year follow-up. The final prediction model included proteinuria (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.16 to 1.45, every 1 g/24 hours), estimated GFR (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.96, every 10 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), mesangial proliferation (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.10 to 3.11), segmental sclerosis (HR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.37 to 7.51), and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T1: HR, 5.30; 95% CI, 2.63 to 10.7; T2: HR, 20.5; 95% CI, 9.05 to 46.5) as independent risk factors for developing ESRD. To create a prediction rule, the score for each variable was weighted by the regression coefficients calculated using the relevant Cox model. The incidence of ESRD increased linearly with increases in the total risk scores (P for trend <0.001). Furthermore, the prediction rule demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.89) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.78) in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

This study developed and validated a new prediction rule using clinical measures and the Oxford classification for developing ESRD in patients with IgAN.

SUBMITTER: Tanaka S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3848397 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of a prediction rule using the Oxford classification in IgA nephropathy.

Tanaka Shigeru S Ninomiya Toshiharu T Katafuchi Ritsuko R Masutani Kosuke K Tsuchimoto Akihiro A Noguchi Hideko H Hirakata Hideki H Tsuruya Kazuhiko K Kitazono Takanari T

Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN 20131031 12

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>The risk assessment for developing ESRD remains limited in patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction rule for estimating the individual risk of ESRD in patients with IgAN.<h4>Design, setting, participants, & measurements</h4>A total of 698 patients with IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy at Kyushu University Hospital (derivation cohort) between 1982 and 2010 were retrospectively followed. The Oxford classifi ...[more]

PMID: 24178970

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Project description:BackgroundThe Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) was revised in 2016 which lacked sufficient evidence for prognostic value of subclassification of focal segmental glomerular sclerosis (S lesion), and the proper proportion of S lesion for subclassification remains undetermined.AimThis study aimed to explore the predictive value of the new subclassification of S score on renal outcomes of IgAN patients.Methods348 patients with IgAN-associated S lesion were enrolled. According to the optimal cut-off of 25% established by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we divided S1 patients into two groups: S1a group (S lesion < 25%) and S1b group (S lesion ≥ 25%). IgAN patients with mild lesion (M0E0S0T0C0) were set as the control group. The clinical features at renal biopsy, pathological findings, and follow-up parameters (follow-up time ranged from 1 to 5 years) were collected. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to assess whether the subclassification of S score could refine risk prediction and clinical utility.ResultsWe demonstrated that S lesion ≥ 25% was associated with a more rapid GFR loss and a lower rate of complete remission of proteinuria even adjusted for multiple clinic pathological variables, compared to S1a group (All p values <.05). And the ratio of glomeruli with T lesion and crescents were higher in patients with S lesion ≥ 25%. Data showed that IgAN patients with S lesion ≥ 25% were at an increased risk of poor renal outcomes even with immunosuppression.ConclusionThis study might recommend new subclassification of S scores (S0 (no S lesion), S1 (S lesion <25% of glomeruli), and S2 (S lesion ≥ 25% of glomeruli)) for the Oxford classification. This model may also help to evaluate pros and cons of immunosuppressive therapy in IgAN patients with different level of S lesion.KEY MESSAGESS lesion ≥ 25% is an independent risk factor for poor renal outcome in IgAN patients.This new subclassification of S scores may help to evaluate pros and cons of immunotherapy in IgAN patients with different level of S lesion.

Project description:BackgroundImmunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is among the commonest glomerulonephritides in Greece and an important cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with an insidious chronic course. Thus, the recently published International IgAN prediction tool could potentially provide valuable risk stratification and guide the appropriate treatment module. This study aimed to externally validate this prediction tool using a patient cohort from the IgAN registry of the Greek Society of Nephrology.MethodsWe validated the predictive performance of the two full models (with or without race) derived from the International IgAN Prediction Tool study in the Greek Society of Nephrology registry of patients with IgAN using external validation of survival prediction models (Royston and Altman). The discrimination and calibration of the models were tested using the C-statistics and stratified analysis, coefficient of determination ( RD2 ) for model fit, and the regression coefficient of the linear predictor (βPI), respectively.ResultsThe study included 264 patients with a median age of 39 (30-51) years where 65.2% are men. All patients were of Caucasian origin. The 5-year risk of the primary outcome (50% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate or ESKD) was 8%. The RD2 for the full models with and without race when applied to our cohort was 39 and 35%, respectively, and both were higher than the reported RD2 for the models applied to the original validation cohorts (26.3, 25.3, and 35.3%, respectively). Harrel's C statistic for the full model with race was 0.71, and for the model without race was 0.70. Renal survival curves in the subgroups (<16th, ~16 to <50th, ~50 to <84th, and >84th percentiles of linear predictor) showed adequate separation. However, the calibration proved not to be acceptable for both the models, and the risk probability was overestimated by the model.ConclusionsThe two full models with or without race were shown to accurately distinguish the highest and higher risk patients from patients with low and intermediate risk for disease progression in the Greek registry of IgAN.

Project description:Background and objectivesThe International IgA Nephropathy Network recently developed and externally validated two models to predict the risk of progression of IgA nephropathy: full models without and with race. This study sought to externally validate the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool in a large, independent, and contemporary cohort in China.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe included 1373 patients with biopsy-confirmed primary IgA nephropathy from The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2012 to May 2018 and calculated predicted risks for each patient. The outcomes of interest were a 50% decline in eGFR or kidney failure. We assessed the performance of both models using discrimination (concordance statistics and Kaplan-Meier curves between subgroups), calibration (calibration plots), reclassification (net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement), and clinical utility (decision curve analysis).ResultsThe median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 21-43 months; range, 1-95 months), and 186 (14%) patients reached the kidney outcomes of interest. Both models showed excellent discrimination (concordance statistics >0.85 and well separated survival curves). Overall, the full model without race generally underestimated the risk of primary outcome, whereas the full model with race was well calibrated for predicting 5-year risk. Compared with the full model without race, the full model with race had significant improvement in reclassification, as assessed by the net reclassification improvement (0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.59) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.04 to 0.08). Decision curve analysis showed that both full models had a higher net benefit than default strategies, and the model with race performed better.ConclusionsIn this study, both full models demonstrated remarkable discrimination, acceptable calibration, and satisfactory clinical utility. The relatively short follow-up time may have limited the validation of these models.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prediction rule using the Oxford classification in IgA nephropathy.

Background and objectives

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and validation of a prediction rule using the Oxford classification in IgA nephropathy.

Similar Datasets

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