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A predictive model for knee joint replacement in older women.

ABSTRACT: Knee replacement (KR) is expensive and invasive. To date no predictive algorithms have been developed to identify individuals at high risk of surgery. This study assessed whether patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR in a population-based study of 1,462 women aged over 70 years recruited for the Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS). Complete hospital records of prevalent (1980-1998) and incident (1998-2008) total knee replacement were available via the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Potential risk factors were assessed for predicative ability using a modeling approach based on a pre-planned selection of risk factors prior to model evaluation. There were 129 (8.8%) participants that underwent KR over the 10 year period. Baseline factors including; body mass index, knee pain, previous knee replacement and analgesia use for joint pain were all associated with increased risk, (P < 0.001). These factors in addition to age demonstrated good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.79 ± 0.02 as well as calibration determined by the Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit test. For clinical recommendations, three categories of risk for 10-year knee replacement were selected; low < 5%; moderate 5 to < 10% and high ? 10% predicted risk. The actual risk of knee replacement was; low 16 / 741 (2.2%); moderate 32 / 330 (9.7%) and high 81 / 391 (20.7%), P < 0.001. Internal validation of this 5-variable model on 6-year knee replacements yielded a similar C-statistic of 0.81 ± 0.02, comparable to the WOMAC weighted score; C-statistic 0.75 ± 0.03, P = 0.064. In conclusion 5 easily obtained patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR risk well in this population. This algorithm should be considered as the basis for a patient-based risk calculator to assist in the development of treatment regimens to reduce the necessity for surgery in high risk groups such as the elderly.

SUBMITTER: Lewis JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3859639 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A predictive model for knee joint replacement in older women.

Lewis Joshua R JR Dhaliwal Satvinder S SS Zhu Kun K Prince Richard L RL

PloS one 20131211 12

Knee replacement (KR) is expensive and invasive. To date no predictive algorithms have been developed to identify individuals at high risk of surgery. This study assessed whether patient self-reported risk factors predict 10-year KR in a population-based study of 1,462 women aged over 70 years recruited for the Calcium Intake Fracture Outcome Study (CAIFOS). Complete hospital records of prevalent (1980-1998) and incident (1998-2008) total knee replacement were available via the Western Australia ...[more]

PMID: 24349541

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Project description:BackgroundHip and knee arthroplasties are common and successful procedures, however, success and durability are not guaranteed. The revision burden, defined as the ratio of implant revisions to the total number of arthroplasties in a specific period, is a measure of the steady state of arthroplasty success in a given registry. This study examines the hypothesis that revision burden would be similar among contemporary joint replacement registries and improving over time compared with historic controls.MethodsWe evaluated the national joint registries of 5 health systems (Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry [AOANJRR]; National Joint Registry of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the Isle of Man; New Zealand Joint Registry [NZJR]; Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register [SHAR] and Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register [SKAR]; and the American Joint Replacement Registry [AJRR]) for hip and knee revision burden over the past 4 years or since registry inception. Historic controls were obtained from previously published reports.ResultsThe 2014 hip revision burden varied from 9.7 percent (NJR) to 11.9 percent (NZJR), and the unweighted average was 10.4 percent. The 2011, 2012, and 2013 mean hip revision burden was 11.9, 11.9, and 11.4 percent. The 2014 knee revision burden varied from to 6.0 percent (NJR) to 8.1 percent (AJRR), and the unweighted average for the 5 registries studied was 7.0 percent. The 2011, 2012, and 2013 mean knee revision burden was 6.9, 7.0, and 7.0 percent. Historically, the observed hip revision burden was 15.8 percent and the knee revision burden 8.0 percent.ConclusionsRevision burden has gradually decreased for hip replacements and has remained relatively constant for knee replacements both for the last 4 years and compared to historic controls. Knee revision burden was lower than hip revision burden for each period examined. Revision burden is one measure that may be helpful in following the effect of changes in surgical technique and implant design over time in registry populations and may be a helpful way to compare overall results between registries.

Project description:ImportanceThere are marked racial/ethnic differences in hip and knee joint replacement care as well as concerns that value-based payments may exacerbate existing racial/ethnic disparities in care.ObjectiveTo examine changes in joint replacement care associated with Medicare's Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model among White, Black, and Hispanic patients.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of Medicare claims from 2013 through 2017 among White, Black, and Hispanic patients undergoing joint replacement in 67 treatment (selected for CJR participation) and 103 control metropolitan statistical areas.ExposuresThe CJR model holds hospitals accountable for spending and quality of joint replacement care during care episodes (index hospitalization through 90 days after discharge).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes were spending, discharge to institutional postacute care, and readmission during care episodes.ResultsAmong 688 346 patients, 442 163 (64.2%) were women, and 87 286 (12.7%) were 85 years or older. Under CJR, spending decreased by $439 for White patients (95% CI, -$718 to -$161; from pre-CJR spending in treatment metropolitan statistical areas of $25 264) but did not change for Black patients and Hispanic patients. Discharges to institutional postacute care decreased for all groups (-2.5 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to -0.4, from pre-CJR risk of 46.2% for White patients; -6.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -9.8 to -2.2, from pre-CJR risk of 59.5% for Black patients; and -4.3 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.6 to -1.0, from pre-CJR risk of 54.3% for Hispanic patients). Readmission risk decreased for Black patients by 3.1 percentage points (95% CI, -5.9 to -0.4, from pre-CJR risk of 21.8%) and did not change for White patients and Hispanic patients. Under CJR, Black-White differences in discharges to institutional postacute care decreased by 3.4 percentage points (95% CI, -6.4 to -0.5, from the pre-CJR Black-White difference of 13.3 percentage points). No evidence was found demonstrating that Black-White differences changed for other outcomes or that Hispanic-White differences changed for any outcomes under CJR.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of patients receiving joint replacements, CJR was associated with decreased readmissions for Black patients. Furthermore, Black patients experienced a greater decrease in discharges to institutional postacute care relative to White patients, representing relative improvements despite concerns that value-based payment models may exacerbate existing disparities. Nonetheless, differences between White and Black patients in joint replacement care still persisted even after these changes.

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A predictive model for knee joint replacement in older women.

Publications

A predictive model for knee joint replacement in older women.

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