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Cumulative risk impact of five genetic variants associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Two recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) identified five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs965513, rs944289, rs966423, rs2439302, and rs116909374) associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Each variant showed highly significant but moderate to low disease risk. Here we assessed the cumulative risk and predictive value of the five SNPs.We genotyped two cohorts of individuals, 747 PTC cases and 1047 controls from Ohio and 1795 PTC cases and 2090 controls from Poland. Cumulative genetic risk scores were calculated using unweighted and weighted approaches.All five SNPs showed significant association with PTC. The average cumulative risk score in cases was significantly higher than in controls (p<2.2×10(-16)). Each additional risk allele increased the risk of having PTC by 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4, 1.64] in Ohio and by 1.35 [95% CI 1.27, 1.44] in Poland. An analysis was performed weighing risk alleles by effect size and assigning individuals to three weighted risk score groups, low (?2), medium (2-5), and high (>5). Individuals in the high group were significantly more susceptible to PTC compared with individuals in the low group with an odds ratio of 8.7 [95% CI 5.8, 13.3] in Ohio and 4.24 [95% CI 3.10, 5.84] in Poland. Almost identical results were obtained when follicular variant PTCs and microPTCs were omitted. These five SNPs explained 11% of the familial risk of thyroid cancer in the Ohio cohort and 6% in the Polish cohort.As the genetic risk score increases, the risk of having PTC increases. However, the predictive power of the cumulative effect of these five variants is only moderately high and clinical use may not be feasible until more variants are detected.

SUBMITTER: Liyanarachchi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3868253 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cumulative risk impact of five genetic variants associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Liyanarachchi Sandya S Wojcicka Anna A Li Wei W Czetwertynska Malgorzata M Stachlewska Elzbieta E Nagy Rebecca R Hoag Kevin K Wen Bernard B Ploski Rafal R Ringel Matthew D MD Kozłowicz-Gudzinska Izabella I Gierlikowski Wojciech W Jazdzewski Krystian K He Huiling H de la Chapelle Albert A

Thyroid : official journal of the American Thyroid Association 20130829 12

<h4>Background</h4>Two recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) identified five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; rs965513, rs944289, rs966423, rs2439302, and rs116909374) associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Each variant showed highly significant but moderate to low disease risk. Here we assessed the cumulative risk and predictive value of the five SNPs.<h4>Methods</h4>We genotyped two cohorts of individuals, 747 PTC cases and 1047 controls from Ohio and 1795 PTC cases ...[more]

PMID: 23659773

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Project description:ImportanceWhile well-differentiated papillary thyroid carcinoma (WDPTC) outcomes have been well characterized, the prognostic implications of more aggressive variants are far less defined. The rarity of these subtypes has led to their consolidation as intermediate risk for what are in fact likely heterogeneous diseases.ObjectiveTo analyze incidence, clinicopathologic characteristics, and outcomes for aggressive variants of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from 2000 to 2016 from hospital-based and population-based US cancer registries to analyze aggressive PTC variants, including diffuse sclerosing (DSV), tall-cell (TCV), insular, and poorly differentiated (PDTC) subtypes. These variants were compared against WDPTC and anaplastic cases. Data analysis was conducted from January 2019 to October 2019.Main outcomes and measuresAge-adjusted incidence was calculated via annual percentage change (APC) using the weighted least-squares method. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were analyzed via Cox regression. Propensity-score matching was used to adjust survival analyses for clinical and demographic covariates.ResultsCollectively, 5447 aggressive PTC variants were identified (including 415 DSV, 3339 TCV, 362 insular, and 1331 PDTC cases), as well as 35 812 WDPTC and 2249 anaplastic cases. Over the study period, a substantial increase in aggressive variant incidence was observed (APC, 9.1 [95% CI, 7.33-10.89]; P < .001), surpassing the relative increases observed in WDPTC (APC, 5.1 [95% CI, 3.98-6.12]; P < .001) and anaplastic cases (APC, 1.9 [95% CI, 0.75-3.05]; P = .003; parallelism P < .007). Survival varied markedly based on histologic subtype, with a wide spectrum of mortality risk noted; 10-year overall survival was 85.4% (95% CI, 84.6%-86.3%) in WDPTC, 79.2% (95% CI, 73.6%-85.3%) in DSV, 71.9% (95% CI, 68.4%-75.6%) in TCV, 45.1% (95% CI, 40.2%-50.6%) in PDTC, 27.9% (95% CI, 20.0%-38.9%) in the insular variant, and 8.9% (95% CI, 7.5%-10.6%) in anaplastic cases (P < .001). These differences largely persisted even after adjusting for inherent differences in baseline characteristics by multivariable Cox regression and propensity-score matching.Conclusions and relevanceAn upsurge in aggressive PTC incidence was observed at a rate beyond that seen in WDPTC or anaplastic thyroid carcinoma. Moreover, long-term survival outcomes for aggressive PTC subgroups exhibit heterogeneous clinical behavior and a wide range of mortality risk, suggesting that treatment should be tailored to specific histologic subtypes. Given increasing prevalence and disparate outcomes, further investigation to identify optimal therapeutic strategies is needed in these diverse, understudied populations.

Dataset Information

Cumulative risk impact of five genetic variants associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Publications

Cumulative risk impact of five genetic variants associated with papillary thyroid carcinoma.

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