Dataset Information

Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Newark, New Jersey, is among the most severe in the United States. Prevalence ranges up to 3.3% in some groups. The aim of this study is to use a mathematical model of the epidemic in Newark to assess the impact of interventions along the continuum of care, leading to virologic suppression.

Methods

A model was constructed of HIV infection including specific care-continuum steps. The model was calibrated to HIV/AIDS cases in Newark among different populations over a 10-year period. Interventions applied to model fits were increasing proportions tested, linked and retained in care, linked and adherent to treatment, and increasing testing frequency, high-risk-group testing, and adherence. Impacts were assessed by measuring incidence and death reductions 10 years postintervention.

Results

The most effective interventions for reducing incidence were improving treatment adherence and increasing testing frequency and coverage. No single intervention reduced incidence in 2023 by >5%, and the most effective combination of interventions reduced incidence by approximately 16% (2%-24%). The most efficacious interventions for reducing deaths were increasing retention, linkage to care, testing coverage, and adherence. Increasing retention reduced deaths by approximately 27% (24%-29%); the most efficacious combination of interventions reduced deaths in 2023 by approximately 52% (46%-57%).

Conclusions

Reducing HIV deaths in Newark over a 10-year period may be a realizable goal, but reducing incidence is less likely. Our results highlight the importance of addressing leaks across the entire continuum of care and reinforcing efforts to prevention new HIV infections with additional interventions.

SUBMITTER: Birger RB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3871792 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey.

Birger Ruthie B RB Hallett Timothy B TB Sinha Anushua A Grenfell Bryan T BT Hodder Sally L SL

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20131017 2

<h4>Background</h4>The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Newark, New Jersey, is among the most severe in the United States. Prevalence ranges up to 3.3% in some groups. The aim of this study is to use a mathematical model of the epidemic in Newark to assess the impact of interventions along the continuum of care, leading to virologic suppression.<h4>Methods</h4>A model was constructed of HIV infection including specific care-continuum steps. The model was calibrated to HIV/AIDS case ...[more]

PMID: 24140971

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundChina implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 at the early stage. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on HIV care continuum in China.MethodsAggregated data on HIV care continuum between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2020 were collected from centers for disease control and prevention at different levels and major infectious disease hospitals in various regions in China. We used interrupted time series analysis to characterize temporal trend in weekly numbers of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) prescriptions, HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, median time intervals between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (time intervals, days), ART initiations, mean CD4+ T cell counts at ART initiation (CD4 counts, cells/μL), ART collections, and missed visits for ART collection, before and after the implementation of massive NPIs (23 January to 7 April 2020). We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of NPIs on these outcomes.FindingsA total of 16,780 PEP prescriptions, 1,101,686 HIV tests, 69,659 HIV diagnoses, 63,409 time intervals and ART initiations, 61,518 CD4 counts, 1,528,802 ART collections, and 6656 missed visits were recorded during the study period. The majority of outcomes occurred in males (55·3-87·4%), 21-50 year olds (51·7-90·5%), Southwestern China (38·2-82·0%) and heterosexual transmission (47·9-66·1%). NPIs was associated with 71·5% decrease in PEP prescriptions (IRR 0·285; 95% CI 0·192-0·423), 36·1% decrease in HIV tests (0·639, 0·497-0·822), 32·0% decrease in HIV diagnoses (0·680, 0·511-0·904), 59·3% increase in time intervals (1·593, 1·270-1·997) and 17·4% decrease in CD4 counts (0·826, 0·746-0·915) in the first week during NPIs. There was no marked change in the number of ART initiations, ART collections and missed visits during the NPIs. By the end of 2020, the number of HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, time intervals, ART initiations, and CD4 counts reached expected levels, but the number of PEP prescriptions (0·523, 0·394-0·696), ART collections (0·720, 0·595-0·872), and missed visits (0·137, 0·086-0·220) were still below expected levels. With the ease of restrictions, PEP prescriptions (slope change 1·024/week, 1·012-1·037), HIV tests (1·016/week, 1·008-1·026), and CD4 counts (1·005/week, 1·001-1·009) showed a significant increasing trend.InterpretationHIV care continuum in China was affected by the COVID-19 NPIs at various levels. Preparedness and efforts to maintain the HIV care continuum during public health emergencies should leverage collaborations between stakeholders.FundingNatural Science Foundation of China.

Dataset Information

Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey.

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