Dataset Information

Factors that predict short-term intensive care unit mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background & aims

Despite advances in critical care medicine, the mortality rate is high among critically ill patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to identify factors that predict early (7 d) mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to develop a risk-stratification model.

Methods

We collected data from patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU at Indiana University (IU-ICU) from December 1, 2006, through December 31, 2009 (n = 185), or at the University of Pennsylvania (Penn-ICU) from May 1, 2005, through December 31, 2010 (n = 206). Factors associated with mortality within 7 days of admission (7-d mortality) were determined by logistic regression analyses. A model was constructed based on the predictive parameters available on the first day of ICU admission in the IU-ICU cohort and then validated in the Penn-ICU cohort.

Results

Median Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores at ICU admission were 25 in the IU-ICU cohort (interquartile range, 23-34) and 32 in the Penn-ICU cohort (interquartile range, 26-41); corresponding 7-day mortalities were 28.3% and 53.6%, respectively. MELD score (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.2) and mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 5.7; 95% CI, 2.3-14.1) were associated independently with 7-day mortality in the IU-ICU. A model based on these 2 variables separated IU-ICU patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups; these groups had 7-day mortalities of 9%, 27%, and 74%, respectively (concordance index, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.87; P < 10(-8)). The model was applied to the Penn-ICU cohort; the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups had 7-day mortalities of 33%, 56%, and 71%, respectively (concordance index, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.59-0.74; P < 10(-4)).

Conclusions

A model based on MELD score and mechanical ventilation on day 1 can stratify risk of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. More studies are needed to validate this model and to enhance its clinical utility.

SUBMITTER: Bahirwani R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3873858 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Factors that predict short-term intensive care unit mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

Bahirwani Ranjeeta R Ghabril Marwan M Forde Kimberly A KA Chatrath Hemant H Wolf Karen M KM Uribe Lindsay L Reddy K Rajender KR Fuchs Barry B Chalasani Naga N

Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association 20130416 9

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Despite advances in critical care medicine, the mortality rate is high among critically ill patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to identify factors that predict early (7 d) mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to develop a risk-stratification model.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected data from patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU at Indiana University (IU-ICU) from December 1, 2006, through December 31, 2009 (n = 185), or a ...[more]

PMID: 23602820

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundHigh-density lipoproteins (HDLs), particles characterized by their reverse cholesterol transport function, display pleiotropic properties, including anti-inflammatory and antioxidant functions. Moreover, all lipoproteins (HDLs but also low-density lipoproteins (LDLs)) neutralize lipopolysaccharides, leading to increased bacterial clearance. These two lipoproteins decrease during sepsis, and an association between low lipoprotein levels and poor outcome was reported. The goals of this study were to characterize the lipid profile of septic patients hospitalized in our intensive care unit (ICU) and to determine the relationship with the outcome.MethodsA prospective observational study was conducted in a university hospital ICU. All consecutive patients admitted for septic shock or sepsis were included. Total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglyceride levels were assessed at admission (day 1), at day 3, and at ICU discharge. When available, a prehospitalization lipid profile collected prior to the patient's hospitalization was compiled. Short-term and 1-year prognostic outcomes were prospectively assessed.ResultsA total of 205 patients were included. We found a decrease in HDL-C concentration between previous values and those at admission, followed by an additional decrease at day 3. At ICU discharge, the concentration was higher than that at day 3 but did not reach the concentration measured prior to hospitalization (prior HDL-C = 1.22 (1.04-1.57) mmol/l; day 1 HDL-C = 0.44 (0.29-0.70) mmol/l; day 3 HDL-C = 0.30 (0.25-0.48) mmol/l; and HDL-C at discharge = 0.65 (0.42-0.82) mmol/l). A similar trend was found for LDL-C (prior LDL-C = 2.7 (1.91-3.33) mmol/l; day 1 LDL-C = 1.0 (0.58-1.50) mmol/l; day 3 LDL-C = 1.04 (0.64-1.54) mmol/l; and LDL-C at discharge = 1.69 (1.26-2.21) mmol/l). Mixed models for repeated measures of lipoprotein concentrations showed a significant difference in HDL-C and LDL-C concentrations over time between survivors and nonsurvivors at day 28. An HDL-C concentration at admission of less than 0.4 mmol/l was associated with increased mortality at day 28 (log-rank test, p = 0.034) but not at 1 year (log-rank test, p = 0.24). An LDL-C concentration at admission of less than 0.72 mmol/l was associated with increased mortality at day 28 and at 1 year (log-rank test, p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively). No link was found between prior lipid profile and mortality.ConclusionsWe showed no relationship between the prehospitalization lipid profile and patient outcome, but low lipoprotein levels in the ICU were strongly associated with short-term mortality.

Project description:PurposeThe final decision for discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) is uncertain because it is made according to various patient parameters; however, it should be made on an objective evaluation. Previous reports have been inconsistent and unreliable in predicting post-ICU mortality. To identify predictive factors associated with post-ICU mortality, we analyzed physiological and laboratory data at ICU discharge.MethodsPatients admitted to our ICU between September 2012 and August 2013 and staying for critical care>2 days were included. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; systemic inflammatory response syndrome score; white blood cell count; and serum C reactive protein, procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), lactate, albumin, and hemoglobin levels were recorded. The primary end point was 90-day mortality after ICU discharge. Two hundred eighteen patients were enrolled (195 survivors, 23 non-survivors).ResultsNon-survivors presented a higher SOFA score and serum PCT, and IL-6 levels, as well as lower serum albumin and hemoglobin levels. Serum PCT, albumin, and SOFA score were associated with 90-day mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed chi-square value of 6.96, and P value of 0.54. The area under the curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.830 (0.771-0.890) for PCT, 0.688 (0.566-0.810) for albumin, 0.861 (0.796-0.927) for SOFA score, and increased to 0.913 (0.858-0.969) when these were combined. Serum PCT level at 0.57 ng/mL, serum albumin at 2.5 g/dL and SOFA score at 5.5 predict 90-day mortality, and high PCT, low albumin and high SOFA groups had significantly higher mortality. Serum PCT and SOFA score were significantly associated with survival days after ICU discharge in Cox regression analysis.ConclusionsSerum PCT level and SOFA score at ICU discharge predict post-ICU mortality and survival days after ICU discharge. The combination of these two and albumin level might enable accurate prediction.

Project description:Age is an important risk factor for mortality among patients with cardiogenic shock and heart failure (HF). We sought to assess the extent to which age modified the performance of the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) shock stage for in-hospital and 1 year mortality in cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients with and without HF. We retrospectively reviewed unique admissions to the Mayo Clinic CICU during 2007-2015 and stratified patients by age and SCAI shock stage. The association between age and in-hospital mortality was analysed using multivariable logistic regression, and 1 year mortality was analysed using Cox proportional hazards analysis, both in the entire cohort and among patients with an admission diagnosis of HF or acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The final study population included 10 004 unique patients with a mean age of 67 ± 15 years, including 46.1% with HF and 43.1% with ACS. Older patients more frequently had HF and had more extensive co-morbidities, higher illness severity, more organ failure, and differential use of critical care therapies. The percentage of patients with SCAI shock stages A, B, C, D, and E were 46%, 30%, 16%, 7%, and 1%, respectively. Patients with HF were older, had greater severity of illness and higher SCAI shock stage, and had higher rates of death at all time points. In-hospital mortality occurred in 908 (9%) patients, including 549 (12%) patients with HF (61% of all hospital deaths). Age was independently associated with hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio per 10 years 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.2-1.4, P < 0.001) and 1 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.2-1.3, P < 0.001) in the overall cohort. The associations of age with both hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.6 vs. 1.3 per 10 years older) and 1 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.5 vs. 1.3 per 10 years older) were higher for patients with ACS compared with patients with HF. Older age was associated with higher adjusted hospital mortality and 1 year mortality in each SCAI shock stage (all P < 0.05). Additive increases in both hospital mortality and 1 year mortality were observed with increasing age and SCAI shock stage. Age is an independent risk factor for mortality that modifies the relationship between the SCAI shock stage and mortality risk in CICU patients, providing robust risk stratification for in-hospital and 1 year mortality. Although patients with HF had a higher risk of dying, age was more strongly associated with mortality among patients with ACS.

Dataset Information

Factors that predict short-term intensive care unit mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

Background & aims

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Factors that predict short-term intensive care unit mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets