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Eligibility for the kidney transplant wait list: a model for conceptualizing patient risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Determining eligibility for a kidney transplant is one of the most important decisions facing nephrologists. It is assumed that the harm of kidney transplantation is minimal and most will benefit. The purpose of this study was to quantify the probability of 'no benefit' as defined by death on the wait list; 'harm', defined by the probability that a transplanted patient would live less than the average wait listed patient; and 'benefit' for the probability a transplanted patient would outlive the average wait listed patient. METHODS:A computerized model was developed to replicate observed patient survival outcomes in deceased donor kidney transplantation. Three sequential periods of risk for the transplanted recipient compared to the wait listed cohort (increased, equivalent and reduced risk) were modeled. RESULTS:The model predicted that wait listed patients with a baseline mortality of 28 deaths per 100 patient years were equally likely to benefit or be harmed with a transplant. However if 20% of patients on the wait list were on hold (assuming a 2.2-fold higher mortality than those who were transplanted), then the baseline mortality rate for equal harm or benefit decreases to 22 deaths per 100 patient years (equivalent life expectancy 4.5 years). CONCLUSION:Patients with limited life expectancies are more likely to suffer some harm than derive benefit from kidney transplantation.

SUBMITTER: Kiberd BA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3895784 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Eligibility for the kidney transplant wait list: a model for conceptualizing patient risk.

Kiberd Bryce A BA Tennankore Karthik K KK West Kenneth K

Transplantation research 20140108 1

<h4>Background</h4>Determining eligibility for a kidney transplant is one of the most important decisions facing nephrologists. It is assumed that the harm of kidney transplantation is minimal and most will benefit. The purpose of this study was to quantify the probability of 'no benefit' as defined by death on the wait list; 'harm', defined by the probability that a transplanted patient would live less than the average wait listed patient; and 'benefit' for the probability a transplanted patien ...[more]

PMID: 24401550

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding how frailty affects patients listed for transplantation has been identified as a priority research need. Frailty may be associated with a high risk of death or wait-list withdrawal, but this has not been evaluated in a large multicenter cohort of Canadian wait-listed patients.ObjectiveThe primary objective is to evaluate whether frailty is associated with death or permanent withdrawal from the transplant wait list. Secondary objectives include assessing whether frailty is associated with hospitalization, quality of life, and the probability of being accepted to the wait list.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingSeven sites with established renal transplant programs that evaluate patients for the kidney transplant wait list.PatientsIndividuals who are being considered for the kidney transplant wait list.MeasurementsWe will assess frailty using the Fried Phenotype, a frailty index, the Short Physical Performance Battery, and the Clinical Frailty Scale at the time of listing for transplantation. We will also assess frailty at the time of referral to the wait list and annually after listing in a subgroup of patients.MethodsThe primary outcome of the composite of time to death or permanent wait-list withdrawal will be compared between patients who are frail and those who are not frail and will account for the competing risks of deceased and live donor transplantation. Secondary outcomes will include number of hospitalizations and length of stay, and in a subset, changes in frailty severity over time, change in quality of life, and the probability of being listed. Recruitment of 1165 patients will provide >80% power to identify a relative hazard of ≥1.7 comparing patients who are frail to those who are not frail for the primary outcome (2-sided α = .05), whereas a more conservative recruitment target of 624 patients will provide >80% power to identify a relative hazard of ≥2.0.ResultsThrough December 2019, 665 assessments of frailty (inclusive of those for the primary outcome and all secondary outcomes including repeated measures) have been completed.LimitationsThere may be variation across sites in the processes of referral and listing for transplantation that will require consideration in the analysis and results.ConclusionsThis study will provide a detailed understanding of the association between frailty and outcomes for wait-listed patients. Understanding this association is necessary before routinely measuring frailty as part of the wait-list eligibility assessment and prior to ascertaining the need for interventions that may modify frailty.Trial registrationNot applicable as this is a protocol for a prospective observational study.

Project description:BackgroundGeographic disparities in access to deceased donor kidney transplantation persist in the United States under the Kidney Allocation System (KAS) introduced in 2014, and the effect of transplant center practices on the probability of transplantation for wait-listed patients remains unclear.MethodsTo compare probability of transplantation across centers nationally and within donation service areas (DSAs), we conducted a registry study that included all United States incident adult kidney transplant candidates wait listed in 2011 and 2015 (pre-KAS and post-KAS cohorts comprising 32,745 and 34,728 individuals, respectively). For each center, we calculated the probability of deceased donor kidney transplantation within 3 years of wait listing using competing risk regression, with living donor transplantation, death, and waiting list removal as competing events. We examined associations between center-level and DSA-level characteristics and the adjusted probability of transplant.ResultsCandidates received deceased donor kidney transplants within 3 years of wait listing more frequently post-KAS (22%) than pre-KAS (19%). Nationally, the probability of transplant varied 16-fold between centers, ranging from 4.0% to 64.2% in the post-KAS era. Within DSAs, we observed a median 2.3-fold variation between centers, with up to ten-fold and 57.4 percentage point differences. Probability of transplantation was correlated in the post-KAS cohort with center willingness to accept hard-to-place kidneys (r=0.55, P<0.001) and local organ supply (r=0.44, P<0.001).ConclusionsLarge differences in the adjusted probability of deceased donor kidney transplantation persist under KAS, even between centers working with the same local organ supply. Probability of transplantation is significantly associated with organ offer acceptance patterns at transplant centers, underscoring the need for greater understanding of how centers make decisions about organs offered to wait-listed patients and how they relate to disparities in access to transplantation.

Project description:BackgroundPatients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and coronary artery disease frequently undergo preemptive revascularization before kidney transplant listing.ObjectivesIn this post hoc analysis from ISCHEMIA-CKD (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness of Medical and Invasive Approaches-Chronic Kidney Disease), we compared outcomes of patients not listed versus those listed according to management strategy.MethodsIn the ISCHEMIA-CKD trial (n = 777), 194 patients (25%) with chronic coronary syndromes and at least moderate ischemia were listed for transplant. The primary (all-cause mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction) and secondary (death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or stroke) outcomes were analyzed using Cox multivariable modeling. Heterogeneity of randomized treatment effect between listed versus not listed groups was assessed.ResultsCompared with those not listed, listed patients were younger (60 years vs 65 years), were less likely to be of Asian race (15% vs 29%), were more likely to be on dialysis (83% vs 44%), had fewer anginal symptoms, and were more likely to have coronary angiography and coronary revascularization irrespective of treatment assignment. Among patients assigned to an invasive strategy versus conservative strategy, the adjusted hazard ratios for the primary outcome were 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-1.54) and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.78-1.37) for those listed and not listed, respectively (pinteraction= 0.68). Adjusted hazard ratios for secondary outcomes were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.55-1.46) in listed and 1.17 (95% CI: 0.89-1.53) in those not listed (pinteraction = 0.35).ConclusionsIn ISCHEMIA-CKD, an invasive strategy in kidney transplant candidates did not improve outcomes compared with conservative management. These data do not support routine coronary angiography or revascularization in patients with advanced CKD and chronic coronary syndromes listed for transplant. (ISCHEMIA-Chronic Kidney Disease Trial [ISCHEMIA-CKD]; NCT01985360).

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Eligibility for the kidney transplant wait list: a model for conceptualizing patient risk.

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Eligibility for the kidney transplant wait list: a model for conceptualizing patient risk.

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