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Effects of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of aging: a stochastic modeling approach.

ABSTRACT: The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions, finding that high extrinsic mortality can select for the evolution of longer lifespans. To further elucidate the role of extrinsic mortality in the evolution of aging, we implemented a stochastic, agent-based, computational model. We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to predict which model parameters predispose populations to evolve longer or shorter lifespans in response to increased levels of predation. We report that longer lifespans evolved in the presence of rising predation if the cost of mating is relatively high and if energy is available in excess. Conversely, we found that dramatically shorter lifespans evolved when mating costs were relatively low and food was relatively scarce. We also analyzed the effects of increased predation on various parameters related to density dependence and energy allocation. Longer and shorter lifespans were accompanied by increased and decreased investments of energy into somatic maintenance, respectively. Similarly, earlier and later maturation ages were accompanied by increased and decreased energetic investments into early fecundity, respectively. Higher predation significantly decreased the total population size, enlarged the shared resource pool, and redistributed energy reserves for mature individuals. These results both corroborate and refine classical predictions, demonstrating a population-level trade-off between longevity and fecundity and identifying conditions that produce both classical and non-classical lifespan effects.

SUBMITTER: Shokhirev MN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3897743 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effects of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of aging: a stochastic modeling approach.

Shokhirev Maxim Nikolaievich MN Johnson Adiv Adam AA

PloS one 20140121 1

The evolutionary theories of aging are useful for gaining insights into the complex mechanisms underlying senescence. Classical theories argue that high levels of extrinsic mortality should select for the evolution of shorter lifespans and earlier peak fertility. Non-classical theories, in contrast, posit that an increase in extrinsic mortality could select for the evolution of longer lifespans. Although numerous studies support the classical paradigm, recent data challenge classical predictions ...[more]

PMID: 24466165

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Project description:BackgroundEarly evolutionary theories of aging predict that populations which experience low extrinsic mortality evolve a retarded onset of senescence. Experimental support for this theory in vertebrates is scarce, in part for the difficulty of quantifying extrinsic mortality and its condition- and density-dependent components that -when considered- can lead to predictions markedly different to those of the "classical" theories. Here, we study annual fish of the genus Nothobranchius whose maximum lifespan is dictated by the duration of the water bodies they inhabit. Different populations of annual fish do not experience different strengths of extrinsic mortality throughout their life span, but are subject to differential timing (and predictability) of a sudden habitat cessation. In this respect, our study allows testing how aging evolves in natural environments when populations vary in the prospect of survival, but condition-dependent survival has a limited effect. We use 10 Nothobranchius populations from seasonal pools that differ in their duration to test how this parameter affects longevity and aging in two independent clades of these annual fishes.ResultsWe found that replicated populations from a dry region showed markedly shorter captive lifespan than populations from a humid region. Shorter lifespan correlated with accelerated accumulation of lipofuscin (an established age marker) in both clades. Analysis of wild individuals confirmed that fish from drier habitats accumulate lipofuscin faster also under natural conditions. This indicates faster physiological deterioration in shorter-lived populations.ConclusionsOur data provide a strong quantitative example of how extrinsic mortality can shape evolution of senescence in a vertebrate clade. Nothobranchius is emerging as a genomic model species. The characterization of pairs of closely related species with different longevities should provide a powerful paradigm for the identification of genetic variations responsible for evolution of senescence in natural populations.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Various computational models have been of interest due to their use in the modelling of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). As a logical model, probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) consider molecular and genetic noise, so the study of PBNs provides significant insights into the understanding of the dynamics of GRNs. This will ultimately lead to advances in developing therapeutic methods that intervene in the process of disease development and progression. The applications of PBNs, however, are hindered by the complexities involved in the computation of the state transition matrix and the steady-state distribution of a PBN. For a PBN with n genes and N Boolean networks, the complexity to compute the state transition matrix is O(nN22n) or O(nN2n) for a sparse matrix. RESULTS: This paper presents a novel implementation of PBNs based on the notions of stochastic logic and stochastic computation. This stochastic implementation of a PBN is referred to as a stochastic Boolean network (SBN). An SBN provides an accurate and efficient simulation of a PBN without and with random gene perturbation. The state transition matrix is computed in an SBN with a complexity of O(nL2n), where L is a factor related to the stochastic sequence length. Since the minimum sequence length required for obtaining an evaluation accuracy approximately increases in a polynomial order with the number of genes, n, and the number of Boolean networks, N, usually increases exponentially with n, L is typically smaller than N, especially in a network with a large number of genes. Hence, the computational efficiency of an SBN is primarily limited by the number of genes, but not directly by the total possible number of Boolean networks. Furthermore, a time-frame expanded SBN enables an efficient analysis of the steady-state distribution of a PBN. These findings are supported by the simulation results of a simplified p53 network, several randomly generated networks and a network inferred from a T cell immune response dataset. An SBN can also implement the function of an asynchronous PBN and is potentially useful in a hybrid approach in combination with a continuous or single-molecule level stochastic model. CONCLUSIONS: Stochastic Boolean networks (SBNs) are proposed as an efficient approach to modelling gene regulatory networks (GRNs). The SBN approach is able to recover biologically-proven regulatory behaviours, such as the oscillatory dynamics of the p53-Mdm2 network and the dynamic attractors in a T cell immune response network. The proposed approach can further predict the network dynamics when the genes are under perturbation, thus providing biologically meaningful insights for a better understanding of the dynamics of GRNs. The algorithms and methods described in this paper have been implemented in Matlab packages, which are attached as Additional files.

Project description:Background. In response to large strides in the control of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the early 2000s the WHO set targets for elimination of both the gambiense (gHAT) and rhodesiense (rHAT) forms as a public health (EPHP) problem by 2020, and elimination of gHAT transmisson (EOT) by 2030. While global EPHP targets have been met, and EOT appears within reach, current control strategies may fail to achieve gHAT EOT in the presence of animal reservoirs, the role of which is currently uncertain. Furthermore, rHAT is not targeted for EOT due to the known importance of animal reservoirs for this form.Methods. To evaluate the utility of a One Health approach to gHAT and rHAT EOT, we built and parameterized a compartmental stochastic model, using the Institute for Disease Modeling's Compartmental Modeling Software, to six HAT epidemics: the national rHAT epidemics in Uganda and Malawi, the national gHAT epidemics in Uganda and South Sudan, and two separate gHAT epidemics in Democratic Republic of Congo distinguished by dominant vector species. In rHAT foci the reservoir animal sub-model was stratified on four species groups, while in gHAT foci domestic swine were assumed to be the only competent reservoir. The modeled time horizon was 2005-2045, with calibration performed using HAT surveillance data and Optuna. Interventions included insecticide and trypanocide treatment of domestic animal reservoirs at varying coverage levels.Results. Validation against HAT surveillance data indicates favorable performance overall, with the possible exception of DRC. EOT was not observed in any modeled scenarios for rHAT, however insecticide treatment consistently performed better than trypanocide treatment in terms of rHAT control. EOT was not observed for gHAT at 0% coverage of domestic reservoirs with trypanocides or insecticides, but was observed by 2030 in all test scenarios; again, insecticides demonstrated superior performance to trypanocides.ConclusionsEOT likely cannot be achieved for rHAT without control of wildlife reservoirs, however insecticide treatment of domestic animals holds promise for improved control. In the presence of domestic animal reservoirs, gHAT EOT may not be achieved under current control strategies.

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Effects of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of aging: a stochastic modeling approach.

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Effects of extrinsic mortality on the evolution of aging: a stochastic modeling approach.

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