Dataset Information

Global determinants of mortality in under 5s: 10 year worldwide longitudinal study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To assess at country level the association of mortality in under 5s with a large set of determinants.

Design

Longitudinal study.

Setting

193 United Nations member countries, 2000-09.

Methods

Yearly data between 2000 and 2009 based on 12 world development indicators were used in a multivariable general additive mixed model allowing for non-linear relations and lag effects.

Main outcome measure

National rate of deaths in under 5s per 1000 live births

Results

The model retained the variables: gross domestic product per capita; percentage of the population having access to improved water sources, having access to improved sanitation facilities, and living in urban areas; adolescent fertility rate; public health expenditure per capita; prevalence of HIV; perceived level of corruption and of violence; and mean number of years in school for women of reproductive age. Most of these variables exhibited non-linear behaviours and lag effects.

Conclusions

By providing a unified framework for mortality in under 5s, encompassing both high and low income countries this study showed non-linear behaviours and lag effects of known or suspected determinants of mortality in this age group. Although some of the determinants presented a linear action on log mortality indicating that whatever the context, acting on them would be a pertinent strategy to effectively reduce mortality, others had a threshold based relation potentially mediated by lag effects. These findings could help designing efficient strategies to achieve maximum progress towards millennium development goal 4, which aims to reduce mortality in under 5s by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

SUBMITTER: Hanf M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3898164 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the association between glaucoma and 10-year mortality rate in an adult population in China.DesignPopulation-based cohort study.SettingThe Liwan Eye Study, China.Participants1405 baseline participants aged 50 years and older were invited to attend a 10-year follow-up examination.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe International Society of Geographic and Epidemiologic Ophthalmology criteria was used to define glaucoma. Detailed information of mortality was confirmed using the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Presenting visual impairment (PVI) was defined as a presenting visual acuity of less than 20/40 in the better-seeing eye. The 10-year mortality rates were compared using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate the association between glaucoma and mortality.ResultsA total of 1372 (97.7%) participants with available gonioscopic data were included in the analysis. Of these, 136 (9.9%), 33 (2.4%) and 21 (1.5%) participants had primary angle closure (PAC) suspect (PACS), PAC and PAC glaucoma (PACG), and 29 (2.1%) had primary open angle glaucoma (POAG). After 10 years, 306 (22.3%) participants were deceased. The 10-year mortality was significantly associated with PACG (HR, 2.15, 95% CI 1.14 to 4.04, p=0.018) but not associated with PAC (HR, 1.27, 95% CI 0.67 to 2.39, p=0.463), PACS (HR, 1.32, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.83, p=0.099) and POAG (HR, 0.74, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.49, p=0.395) when age and gender were adjusted for. This association was no longer statistically significant (HR, 1.60, 95% CI 0.70 to 3.61, p=0.263) when covariables, such as income, education, body mass index, PVI, history of diabetes and hypertension, were adjusted for. Larger vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR >0.30) was only a significant risk factor in multivariable analysis (HR, 1.60, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.33, p=0.011).ConclusionsPACG was significantly associated with higher long-term mortality, but this association was likely to be confounded by other systemic risk factors. VCDR >0.3 was the only independent predictor, implying that it may be a marker of ageing and frailty.

Project description:BackgroundEpigenetic inactivation of O6-methylguanine DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) is associated with increased sensitivity to alkylating chemotherapeutic agents in glioblastoma patients. The genetic background underlying MGMT gene methylation may explain individual differences in treatment response and provide a clue to a personalized treatment strategy. Making use of the longitudinal twin design, we aimed, for the first time, to estimate the genetic contributions to MGMT methylation in a Danish twin cohort.MethodsDNA-methylation from whole blood (18 monozygotic (MZ) and 25 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs) repeated 10 years apart from the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins (LSADT) were used to search for genetic and environmental contributions to DNA-methylation at 170 CpG sites of across the MGMT gene. Both univariate and bivariate twin models were applied. The intraclass correlations, performed on cross-sectional data (246 MZ twin pairs) from an independent study population, the Middle-Aged Danish Twins (MADT), were used to assess the genetic influence at each CpG site of MGMT for replication.ResultsUnivariate twin model revealed twelve CpG sites showing significantly high heritability at intake (wave 1, h2?>?0.43), and seven CpG sites with significant heritability estimates at end of follow-up (wave 2, h2?>?0.5). There were six significant CpG sites, located at the gene body region, that overlapped among the two waves (h2?>?0.5), of which five remained significant in the bivariate twin model, which was applied to both waves. Within MZ pair correlation in these six CpGs from MADT demarks top level of genetic influence. There were 11 CpGs constantly have substantial common environmental component over the 10 years.ConclusionsWe have identified 6 CpG sites linked to the MGMT gene with strong and persistent genetic control based on their DNA methylation levels. The genetic basis of MGMT gene methylation could help to explain individual differences in glioblastoma treatment response and most importantly, provide references for mapping the methylation Quantitative Trait Loci (meQTL) underlying the genetic regulation.

Project description:Personal narratives make up more than half of children’s conversations. The ability to share personal narratives helps build and maintain friendships, promotes physical and emotional wellbeing, supports classroom participation, and underpins academic success and vocational outcomes. Although personal narratives are a universal discourse genre, cross-cultural and cross-linguistic research into children’s ability to share personal narratives is in its infancy. The current study addresses this gap in the research by developing the Global TALES protocol, a protocol comprising six scripted prompts for eliciting personal narratives in school-age children (excited, worried, annoyed, proud, problem situation, something important). We evaluated its feasibility with 249 ten-year-old children from 10 different countries, speaking 8 different languages, and analyzed researchers’ views on the process of adapting the protocol for use in their own country/language. At group-level, the protocol elicited discourse samples from all children, although individual variability was evident, with most children providing responses to all six prompts. When investigating the topics of children’s personal narratives in response to the prompts, we found that children from around the world share many commonalities regarding topics of conversation. Once again individual variability was high, indicating the protocol is effective in prompting children to share their past personal experiences without forcing them to focus on one particular topic. Feedback from the participating researchers on the use of the protocol in their own countries was generally positive, although several translation issues were noted. Based on our results, we now invite clinical researchers from around the world to join us in conducting further research into this important area of practice to obtain a better understanding of the development of personal narratives from children across different languages and cultures and to begin to establish local benchmarks of performance.

Project description:IntroductionMental well-being is a core component of mental health, and resilience is a key process of positive adaptive recovery following adversity. However, we lack an understanding of the neural mechanisms that contribute to individual variation in the trajectories of well-being and resilience relative to risk. Genetic and/or environmental factors may also modulate these mechanisms. The aim of the TWIN-10 Study is to characterise the trajectories of well-being and resilience over 12 years across four timepoints (baseline, 1 year, 10 years, 12 years) in 1669 Australian adult twins of European ancestry (to account for genetic stratification effects). To this end, we integrate data across genetics, environment, psychological self-report, neurocognitive performance and brain function measures of well-being and resilience.Methods and analysisTwins who took part in the baseline TWIN-E Study will be invited back to participate in the TWIN-10 Study, at 10-year and 12-year follow-up timepoints. Participants will complete an online battery of psychological self-reports, computerised behavioural assessments of neurocognitive functions and MRI testing of the brain structure and function during resting and task-evoked scans. These measures will be used as predictors of the risk versus resilience trajectory groups defined by their changing levels of well-being and illness symptoms over time as a function of trauma exposure. Structural equation models will be used to examine the association between the predictors and trajectory groups of resilience and risk over time. Univariate and multivariate twin modelling will be used to determine heritability of the measures, as well as the shared versus unique genetic and environmental contributions.Ethics and disseminationThis study involves human participants. This study was approved by the University of New South Wales Human Research Ethics Committee (HC180403) and the Scientific Management Panel of Neuroscience Research Australia Imaging (CX2019-05). Results will be disseminated through publications and presentations to the public and the academic community. Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part.

Project description:AimTo determine whether intermediate hyperglycaemia, defined by fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c criteria, is associated with mortality in a 10-year cohort of people in a Latin American country.MethodsAnalysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study was conducted in three different population groups (rural, rural-to-urban migrant, and urban). The baseline assessment was conducted in 2007/2008, with follow-up assessment in 2018. The outcome was all-cause mortality, and the exposure was intermediate hyperglycaemia, using three definitions: (1) impaired fasting glucose, defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [fasting plasma glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/l (100-125 mg/dl)]; (2) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria [HbA1c levels 39-46 mmol/mol (5.7-6.4%)]; and (3) intermediate hyperglycaemia defined according to the International Expert Committee criteria [HbA1c levels 42-46 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%)]. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsAt baseline, the mean (sd) age of the study population was 47.8 (11.9) years and 52.5% of the cohort were women. The study cohort was divided into population groups as follows: 207 people (20.0%) in the rural population group, 583 (59.7%) in the rural-to-urban migrant group and 198 (20.3%) in the urban population group. The prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia was: 6%, 12.9% and 38.5% according to the American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose definition, the International Expert Committee HbA1c -based definition and the American Diabetes Association HbA1c -based definition, respectively, and the mortality rate after 10 years was 63/976 (7%). Intermediate hyperglycaemia was associated with all-cause mortality using the HbA1c -based definitions in the crude models [hazard ratios 2.82 (95% CI 1.59-4.99) according to the American Diabetes Association and 2.92 (95% CI 1.62-5.28) according to the International Expert Committee], whereas American Diabetes Association-defined impaired fasting glucose was not [hazard ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.26-2.68)]. In the adjusted model, however, only the American Diabetes Association HbA1c -based definition was associated with all-cause mortality [hazard ratio 1.91 (95% CI 1.03-3.53)], whereas the International Expert Committee HbA1c -based and American Diabetes Association impaired fasting glucose-based definitions were not [hazard ratios 1.42 (95% CI 0.75-2.68) and 1.09 (95% CI 0.33-3.63), respectively].ConclusionsIntermediate hyperglycaemia defined using the American Diabetes Association HbA1c criteria was associated with an elevated mortality rate after 10 years in a cohort from Peru. HbA1c appears to be a factor associated with mortality in this Peruvian population.

Project description:The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control measures by the government and the public's loosening of precautionary behaviors led to a sudden increase in cases, arousing deep concern across the globe. arousing deep concern across the globe. This study evaluates the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries and territories worldwide from January 2020 to February 2021. According to the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) of each country or territory, the results show that almost half of the countries and territories in the world have never controlled the epidemic. Among the countries and territories that had once contained the occurrence, nearly half failed to maintain their prevention and control, causing the COVID-19 pandemic to rebound across the world-resulting in even higher waves in half of the rebounding countries or territories. This work also proposes and uses a time-varying country-level transmission risk score (CTRS), which takes into account both R(t) and daily new cases, to demonstrate country-level or territory-level transmission potential and trends. Time-varying hierarchical clustering of time-varying CTRS values was used to successfully reveal the countries and territories that contributed to the recent aggravation of the global pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, and to identify countries and territories with an increasing risk of COVID-19 transmission in the near future. Furthermore, a regression analysis indicated that the introduction and relaxation of NPIs, including workplace closure policies and stay-at-home requirements, appear to be associated with recent global transmission changes. In conclusion, a systematic evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic over the past year indicates that the world is now in an unexpected situation, with limited lessons learned. Summarizing the lessons learned could help in designing effective public responses for constraining future waves of COVID-19 worldwide.