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Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data.

ABSTRACT: Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees ("who infected whom") from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach identifies likely transmission events and infers dates of infections, unobserved cases and separate introductions of the disease. It also proves useful for inferring numbers of secondary infections and identifying heterogeneous infectivity and super-spreaders. After testing our approach using simulations, we illustrate the method with the analysis of the beginning of the 2003 Singaporean outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), providing new insights into the early stage of this epidemic. Our approach is the first tool for disease outbreak reconstruction from genetic data widely available as free software, the R package outbreaker. It is applicable to various densely sampled epidemics, and improves previous approaches by detecting unobserved and imported cases, as well as allowing multiple introductions of the pathogen. Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments.

SUBMITTER: Jombart T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3900386 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data.

Jombart Thibaut T Cori Anne A Didelot Xavier X Cauchemez Simon S Fraser Christophe C Ferguson Neil N

PLoS computational biology 20140123 1

Recent years have seen progress in the development of statistically rigorous frameworks to infer outbreak transmission trees ("who infected whom") from epidemiological and genetic data. Making use of pathogen genome sequences in such analyses remains a challenge, however, with a variety of heuristic approaches having been explored to date. We introduce a statistical method exploiting both pathogen sequences and collection dates to unravel the dynamics of densely sampled outbreaks. Our approach i ...[more]

PMID: 24465202

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Bacterial cells during many replication cycles accumulate spontaneous mutations, which result in the birth of novel clones. As a result of this clonal expansion, an evolving bacterial population has different clonal composition over time, as revealed in the long-term evolution experiments (LTEEs). Accurately inferring the haplotypes of novel clones as well as the clonal frequencies and the clonal evolutionary history in a bacterial population is useful for the characterization of the evolutionary pressure on multiple correlated mutations instead of that on individual mutations. RESULTS:In this paper, we study the computational problem of reconstructing the haplotypes of bacterial clones from the variant allele frequencies observed from an evolving bacterial population at multiple time points. We formalize the problem using a maximum likelihood function, which is defined under the assumption that mutations occur spontaneously, and thus the likelihood of a mutation occurring in a specific clone is proportional to the frequency of the clone in the population when the mutation occurs. We develop a series of heuristic algorithms to address the maximum likelihood inference, and show through simulation experiments that the algorithms are fast and achieve near optimal accuracy that is practically plausible under the maximum likelihood framework. We also validate our method using experimental data obtained from a recent study on long-term evolution of Escherichia coli. CONCLUSION:We developed efficient algorithms to reconstruct the clonal evolution history from time course genomic sequencing data. Our algorithm can also incorporate clonal sequencing data to improve the reconstruction results when they are available. Based on the evaluation on both simulated and experimental sequencing data, our algorithms can achieve satisfactory results on the genome sequencing data from long-term evolution experiments. AVAILABILITY:The program (ClonalTREE) is available as open-source software on GitHub at https://github.com/COL-IU/ClonalTREE.

Dataset Information

Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data.

Publications

Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data.

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