Dataset Information

Effect of APOE genotype status on targeted clinical trials outcomes and efficiency in dementia and mild cognitive impairment resulting from Alzheimer's disease.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype has been recommended as a potential inclusion or exclusion criterion in targeted clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) resulting from AD, and has been implemented in trials of immunotherapeutic agents.

Methods

We tested this recommendation with clinical trial simulations using participants from a meta-database of 19 studies to create trial samples with APOE ε4 proportions ranging from 0% (all noncarriers) to 100% (all carriers). For each percentage of APOE ε4 carriers, we resampled the database randomly for 1000 trials for each trial scenario, planning for 18- or 24-month trials with samples from 50 to 400 patients per treatment or placebo group, up to 40% dropouts, and outcomes on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale, cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) with effect sizes from 0.15 to 0.75, and calculated statistical power.

Results

Enrichment of clinical trial participants based on APOE ε4 carrier status resulted in minimal increases in power compared with enrolling participants with the APOE ε3 genotype only or enrolling patients without regard to APOE genotype. Increased screening requirements to enhance the sample would offset gains in power.

Conclusions

Although samples enriched for APOE ε4 carriers in AD or MCI clinical trials showed slightly more cognitive impairment and greater decline using the number APOE ε4 alleles as an inclusion criterion most likely would not result in more efficient trials, and trials would take longer because fewer patients would be available. The APOE ε4/εX (where X = 2, 3 or 4) genotype could be useful, however, as an explanatory variable or covariate if warranted by a drug's action.

SUBMITTER: Kennedy RE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3900604 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Effect of APOE genotype status on targeted clinical trials outcomes and efficiency in dementia and mild cognitive impairment resulting from Alzheimer's disease.

Kennedy Richard E RE Cutter Gary R GR Schneider Lon S LS

Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association 20130525 3

<h4>Background</h4>The apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype has been recommended as a potential inclusion or exclusion criterion in targeted clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) resulting from AD, and has been implemented in trials of immunotherapeutic agents.<h4>Methods</h4>We tested this recommendation with clinical trial simulations using participants from a meta-database of 19 studies to create trial samples with APOE ε4 proportions ranging from 0% ...[more]

PMID: 23712001

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Project description:BackgroundWith the onset of prevention trials for individuals at high risk for Alzheimer disease, there is increasing need for accurate risk prediction to inform study design and enrollment, but available risk estimates are limited. We developed risk estimates for the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia among cognitively unimpaired individuals by APOE-e4 dose for the genetic disclosure process of the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Study, a prevention trial in cognitively unimpaired APOE-e4/e4 homozygote individuals.Methods and findingsWe included cognitively unimpaired individuals aged 60-75 y, consistent with Generation Study eligibility criteria, from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) (n = 5,073, 158 APOE-e4/e4), the Rotterdam Study (n = 6,399, 156 APOE-e4/e4), the Framingham Heart Study (n = 4,078, 67 APOE-e4/e4), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (SALSA) (n = 1,294, 11 APOE-e4/e4). We computed stratified cumulative incidence curves by age (60-64, 65-69, 70-75 y) and APOE-e4 dose, adjusting for the competing risk of mortality, and determined risk of MCI and/or dementia by genotype and baseline age. We also used subdistribution hazard regression to model relative hazard based on age, APOE genotype, sex, education, family history of dementia, vascular risk, subjective memory concerns, and baseline cognitive performance. The four cohorts varied considerably in age, education, ethnicity/race, and APOE-e4 allele frequency. Overall, cumulative incidence was uniformly higher in NACC than in the population-based cohorts. Among APOE-e4/e4 individuals, 5-y cumulative incidence was as follows: in the 60-64-y age stratum, it ranged from 0% to 5.88% in the three population-based cohorts versus 23.06% in NACC; in the 65-69-y age stratum, from 9.42% to 10.39% versus 34.62%; and in the 70-75-y age stratum, from 18.64% to 33.33% versus 38.34%. Five-year incidence of dementia was negligible except for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and those over 70 y. Lifetime incidence (to age 80-85 y) of MCI or dementia for the APOE-e4/e4 individuals in the long-term Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts was 34.69%-38.45% at age 60-64 y, 30.76%-40.26% at 65-69 y, and 33.3%-35.17% at 70-75 y. Confidence limits for these estimates are often wide, particularly for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and for the dementia outcome at 5 y. In regression models, APOE-e4 dose and age both consistently increased risk, as did lower education, subjective memory concerns, poorer baseline cognitive performance, and family history of dementia. We discuss several limitations of the study, including the small numbers of APOE-e4/e4 individuals, missing data and differential dropout, limited ethnic and racial diversity, and differences in definitions of exposure and outcome variables.ConclusionsEstimates of the absolute risk of MCI or dementia, particularly over short time intervals, are sensitive to sampling and a variety of methodological factors. Nonetheless, such estimates were fairly consistent across the population-based cohorts, and lower than those from a convenience cohort and those estimated in prior studies-with implications for informed consent and design for clinical trials targeting high-risk individuals.

Project description:Mild behavioral impairment (MBI) is a high-risk state for incident dementia and comprises five core domains including affective dysregulation, impulse dyscontrol, social inappropriateness, psychotic symptoms, and apathy. Apathy is among the most common neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) in dementia but can also develop in persons with normal cognition (NC) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The later-life emergence and persistence of apathy as part of the MBI syndrome may be a driving factor for dementia risk. Therefore, we investigated MBI-apathy-associated progression to dementia, and effect modification by sex, race, cognitive diagnosis, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. Dementia-free National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center participants were stratified by persistent apathy status, based on Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI)-Questionnaire scores at two consecutive visits. Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident dementia for MBI-apathy and NPI-apathy relative to no NPS, and MBI-apathy relative to no apathy, were determined using Cox proportional hazards regressions, adjusted for baseline age, sex, years of education, race, cognitive diagnosis, and APOE genotype. Interactions with relevant model covariates were explored. Of the 3932 participants (3247 with NC), 354 had MBI-apathy. Of all analytic groups, MBI-apathy had the greatest dementia incidence (HR = 2.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.15-3.36, P < 0.001). Interaction effects were observed between cognitive diagnosis and APOE genotype with the NPS group. The contribution of apathy to dementia risk was greater in NC (HR = 5.91, 95% CI: 3.91-8.93) than in MCI (HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.69-2.77, interaction P < 0.001) and in all APOE genotypes, was greatest in APOE ɛ3 (HR = 4.25, 95% CI: 3.1-5.82, interaction P < 0.001). Individuals with MBI-apathy have a markedly elevated risk for future dementia, especially when symptoms emerge in those with NC. Both cognitive status and APOE genotype are important moderators in the relationship between MBI-apathy and incident dementia. MBI-apathy may represent a group in whom apathy is a preclinical or prodromal manifestation of dementia and identify a precision medicine target for preventative interventions.

Dataset Information

Effect of APOE genotype status on targeted clinical trials outcomes and efficiency in dementia and mild cognitive impairment resulting from Alzheimer's disease.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Effect of APOE genotype status on targeted clinical trials outcomes and efficiency in dementia and mild cognitive impairment resulting from Alzheimer's disease.

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