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Pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure-variability is independently associated with all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients.

ABSTRACT: Systolic blood pressure variability is an independent risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular events. Standard measures of blood pressure predict outcome poorly in haemodialysis patients. We investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability was associated with mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. We performed a longitudinal observational study of patients commencing haemodialysis between 2005 and 2011 in East Anglia, UK, excluding patients with cardiovascular events within 6 months of starting haemodialysis. The main exposure was variability independent of the mean (VIM) of systolic blood pressure from short-gap, pre-dialysis blood pressure readings between 3 and 6 months after commencing haemodialysis, and the outcome was all-cause mortality. Of 203 patients, 37 (18.2%) patients died during a mean follow-up of 2.0 (SD 1.3) years. The age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.17) for a one-unit increase of VIM. This was not altered by adjustment for diabetes, prior cardiovascular disease and mean systolic blood pressure (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16). Patients with VIM of systolic blood pressure above the median were 2.4 (95% CI 1.17-4.74) times more likely to die during follow-up than those below the median. Results were similar for all measures of blood pressure variability and further adjustment for type of dialysis access, use of antihypertensives and absolute or variability of fluid intake did not alter these findings. Diastolic blood pressure variability showed no association with all cause mortality. Our study shows that variability of systolic blood pressure is a strong and independent predictor of all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism as this may form a therapeutic target or focus for management.

SUBMITTER: Selvarajah V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3904871 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure-variability is independently associated with all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients.

Selvarajah Viknesh V Selvarajah Viknesh V Pasea Laura L Ojha Sanjay S Wilkinson Ian B IB Tomlinson Laurie A LA

PloS one 20140128 1

Systolic blood pressure variability is an independent risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular events. Standard measures of blood pressure predict outcome poorly in haemodialysis patients. We investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability was associated with mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. We performed a longitudinal observational study of patients commencing haemodialysis between 2005 and 2011 in East Anglia, UK, excluding patients with cardiovascular events within 6 ...[more]

PMID: 24489735

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Project description:Some variables including age, comorbidity of diabetes, and so on at dialysis initiation are associated with patient prognosis. Cardiovascular (CV) events are a major cause of death, and adequate models that predict prognosis in dialysis patients are warranted. Therefore, we created models using some variables at dialysis initiation. We used a database of 1,520 consecutive dialysis patients (median age, 70 years; 492 women [32.4%]) from a multicenter prospective cohort study. We established the primary endpoint as a composite of the incidence of first CV events or all-cause death. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to construct a model. We considered a complex and a simple model. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to assess and compare the predictive performances of the prediction models and evaluated the improvement in discrimination using the complex model versus the simple model using net reclassification improvement (NRI). We then assessed integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to evaluate improvements in average sensitivity and specificity. Of 392 deaths, 152 were CV-related. Totally, 506 CV events occurred during the follow-up period (median 1,285 days). Finally, 692 patients reached the primary endpoint. Baseline data were set at dialysis initiation. AUROC for the primary endpoint was 0.737 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.712-0.761) in the simple model and 0.765 (95% CI, 0.741-0.788) in the complex model. There were significant intergroup differences in NRI (0.44; 95% CI, 0.34-0.53; p < 0.001) and IDI (0.02; 95% CI, 0.02-0.03; p < 0.001). We prepared a Shiny R application for each model to automatically calculate the predicted occurrence probability (https://statacademy.shinyapps.io/App_inaguma_20190717/). The complex model made more accurate predictions than the simple model. However, the intergroup difference was not significant. Hence, the simple model was more useful than the complex model. The tool was useful in a real-world clinical setting because it required only routinely available variables. Moreover, we emphasized that the tool could predict the incidence of CV events or all-cause mortality for individual patients. In the future, we must confirm its external validity in other prospective cohorts.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Intraindividual blood pressure (BP) fluctuates dynamically over time. Previous studies suggested an adverse link between greater visit-to-visit variability in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and various outcomes. However, these studies have significant limitations, such as a small size, inclusion of selected populations, and restricted outcomes. OBJECTIVES:This study investigated the association of increased visit-to-visit variability and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a large cohort of U.S. veterans. METHODS:From among 3,285,684 U.S. veterans with and without hypertension and normal estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) during 2005 and 2006, we identified 2,865,157 patients who had 8 or more outpatient BP measurements. Systolic blood pressure variability (SBPV) was measured using the SD of all SBP values (normally distributed) in 1 individual. Associations of SD quartiles (<10.3, 10.3 to 12.7, 12.7 to 15.6, and ?15.6 mm Hg) with all-cause mortality, incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and ESRD was examined using Cox models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, baseline eGFR, comorbidities, body mass index, SBP, diastolic BP, and antihypertensive medication use. RESULTS:Several sociodemographic variables (older age, male sex, African-American race, divorced or widowed status) and clinical characteristics (lower baseline eGFR, higher SBP and diastolic BP), and comorbidities (presence of diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and lung disease) were all associated with higher intraindividual SBPV. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for SD quartiles 2 through 4 (compared with the first quartile) associated with all-cause mortality, CHD, stroke, and ESRD were incrementally higher. CONCLUSIONS:Higher SBPV in individuals with and without hypertension was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, CHD, stroke, and ESRD. Further studies are needed to determine interventions that can lower SBPV and their impact on adverse health outcomes.

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Pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure-variability is independently associated with all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients.

Publications

Pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure-variability is independently associated with all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients.

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