Correction: Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lavine J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3905976 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology's major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory for pertussis epidemiology.
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Project description:Incidence of whooping cough, unlike many other childhood diseases for which there is an efficacious vaccine, has been increasing over the past twenty years despite high levels of vaccine coverage. Its reemergence has been particularly noticeable among teenagers and adults. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain these two patterns, but parsimonious reconciliation of clinical data on the limited duration of immunity with both pre- and postvaccine era age-specific incidence remains a challenge. We consider the immunologically relevant, yet epidemiologically largely neglected, possibility that a primed immune system can respond to a lower dose of antigen than a naive one. We hypothesize that during the prevaccine era teenagers' and adults' primed immunity was frequently boosted by reexposure, so maintaining herd immunity in the face of potentially eroding individual immunity. In contrast, low pathogen circulation in the current era, except during epidemic outbreaks, allows immunity to be lost before reexposure occurs. We develop and analyze an age-structured model that encapsulates this hypothesis. We find that immune boosting must be more easily triggered than primary infection to account for age-incidence data. We make age-specific and dynamical predictions through bifurcation analysis and simulation. The boosting model proposed here parsimoniously captures four key features of pertussis data from highly vaccinated countries: (i) the shift in age-specific incidence, (ii) reemergence with high vaccine coverage, (iii) the possibility for cyclic dynamics in the pre- and postvaccine eras, and (iv) the apparent shift from susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR)-like to susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS)-like phenomenology of infection and immunity to Bordetella pertussis.
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Project description:The aim is to describe the distribution of immune status (as captured by antibody level) on the basis of a within-host submodel for continuous waning and occasional boosting. Inspired by Feller's fundamental work and the more recent delay equation formulation of models for the dynamics of physiologically structured populations, we derive, for given force of infection, a linear renewal equation. The solution is obtained by generation expansion, with the generation number corresponding to the number of times the individual became infected. Our main result provides a precise characterization of the stable distribution of immune status.
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Project description:Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.
| S-EPMC4810827 | biostudies-other
Project description:Although regime shifts are known from various ecosystems, the involvement of microbial communities is poorly understood. Here we show that gradual environmental changes induced by, for example, eutrophication or global warming can induce major oxic-anoxic regime shifts. We first investigate a mathematical model describing interactions between microbial communities and biogeochemical oxidation-reduction reactions. In response to gradual changes in oxygen influx, this model abruptly transitions between an oxic state dominated by cyanobacteria and an anoxic state with sulfate-reducing bacteria and phototrophic sulfur bacteria. The model predictions are consistent with observations from a seasonally stratified lake, which shows hysteresis in the transition between oxic and anoxic states with similar changes in microbial community composition. Our results suggest that hysteresis loops and tipping points are a common feature of oxic-anoxic transitions, causing rapid drops in oxygen levels that are not easily reversed, at scales ranging from small ponds to global oceanic anoxic events.The role of microbial communities in regime shifts is poorly understood. Here, the authors use a mathematical model and field data from a seasonally stratified lake to show that gradual environmental changes can induce oxic-anoxic regime shifts mediated by microbial community dynamics and redox processes.
| S-EPMC5630580 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.
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Project description:BackgroundA publicly funded, group A rotavirus (RVA) vaccination program was implemented in Quebec in November 2011.ObjectivesTo evaluate trends in RVA infections and describe circulating genotypes before the implementation of a publicly funded vaccination program.MethodsThe Montreal Children's Hospital (Montreal, Quebec) virology laboratory database was reviewed for RVA ELISA performed between July 2006 and June 2011. A five-week moving average was used to follow the proportion of positive RVA ELISA test results. A season was defined as starting with the first two and ending with the final two consecutive weeks in which the percentage of specimens testing positive for RVA was ≥10%. Duplicate tests were excluded. A random sample of 39 RVA-positive fecal samples from the final season (2010/2011) was genetically characterized: VP4, VP6, VP7 and NSP4 gene segments were genotyped using sequence analysis.ResultsOf the 3403 nonduplicate tests, 433 were RVA positive: 15.1% (2006/2007) to 9.3% (2010/2011) of the samples were positive during the study period, with a proportionally larger decrease in the percentage of positive tests compared with the decrease in the number of tests performed. The most common RVA strain types detected were G9P[8]I1 (n=19) and G1P[8]I1 (n=14), followed by G2P[4]I2 (n=4), G3P[6]I1 (n=1) and G4P[8]I2 (n=1). Mixed RVA infection was observed in two samples.ConclusionBefore the implementation of the vaccination program, the proportion of positive RVA tests had already begun to steadily decline. The present study was the first to report the genetic makeup of human RVA collected from a Canadian hospital based on the genotyping of four gene segments. The present study provided a baseline with which to monitor the impact of the universal vaccination program.
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Project description:Sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and sulfur-oxidizing bacteria drive major transformations in the sulfur cycle, and play vital roles in oxic--anoxic transitions in lakes and coastal waters. However, information on the succession of these sulfur bacteria in seasonally stratified lakes using molecular biological techniques is scarce. Here, we used 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to study the spatio-temporal dynamics of sulfur bacteria during oxic--anoxic regime shifts in Lake Vechten. Oxygen and sulfate were mixed throughout the water column in winter and early spring. Meanwhile, SRB, green sulfur bacteria (GSB), purple sulfur bacteria (PSB), and colorless sulfur bacteria (CSB) exclusively inhabited the sediment. After the water column stratified, oxygen and nitrate concentrations decreased in the hypolimnion and various SRB species expanded into the anoxic hypolimnion. Consequently, sulfate was reduced to sulfide, stimulating the growth of PSB and GSB in the metalimnion and hypolimnion during summer stratification. When hypoxia spread throughout the water column during fall turnover, SRB and GSB vanished from the water column, whereas CSB (mainly Arcobacter) and PSB (Lamprocystis) became dominant and oxidized the accumulated sulfide under micro-aerobic conditions. Our results support the view that, once ecosystems have become anoxic and sulfidic, a large oxygen influx is needed to overcome the anaerobic sulfur cycle and bring the ecosystems back into their oxic state.
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Project description:Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.
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Project description:Climate warming can trigger abrupt ecosystem changes in the Arctic. Despite the considerable interest in characterizing and understanding the ecological impact of rapid climate warming in the Arctic, few long time series exist that allow addressing these research goals. During a 30-y period (1980-2010) of gradually increasing seawater temperature and decreasing sea ice cover in Svalbard, we document rapid and extensive structural changes in the rocky-bottom communities of two Arctic fjords. The most striking component of the benthic reorganization was an abrupt fivefold increase in macroalgal cover in 1995 in Kongsfjord and an eightfold increase in 2000 in Smeerenburgfjord. Simultaneous changes in the abundance of benthic invertebrates suggest that the macroalgae played a key structuring role in these communities. The abrupt, substantial, and persistent nature of the changes observed is indicative of a climate-driven ecological regime shift. The ecological processes thought to drive the observed regime shifts are likely to promote the borealization of these Arctic marine communities in the coming years.
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