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Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident.

ABSTRACT: The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged <18 at the time of the accident who were resident in the most radioactively contaminated regions of Ukraine. We extended earlier analyses in this cohort by adjusting for dose error in the recently developed TD-10 dosimetry. Three methods of statistical correction, via two types of regression calibration, and Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood, were applied to the doses that can be derived from the ratio of thyroid activity to thyroid mass. The two components that make up this ratio have different types of error, Berkson error for thyroid mass and classical error for thyroid activity. The first regression-calibration method yielded estimates of excess odds ratio of 5.78 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.92, 27.04), about 7% higher than estimates unadjusted for dose error. The second regression-calibration method gave an excess odds ratio of 4.78 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.64, 19.69), about 11% lower than unadjusted analysis. The Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood method produced an excess odds ratio of 4.93 Gy(-1) (95% CI 1.67, 19.90), about 8% lower than unadjusted analysis. There are borderline-significant (p = 0.101-0.112) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, allowing for which nearly doubled the low-dose linear coefficient. In conclusion, dose-error adjustment has comparatively modest effects on regression parameters, a consequence of the relatively small errors, of a mixture of Berkson and classical form, associated with thyroid dose assessment.

SUBMITTER: Little MP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3906013 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident.

Little Mark P MP Kukush Alexander G AG Masiuk Sergii V SV Shklyar Sergiy S Carroll Raymond J RJ Lubin Jay H JH Kwon Deukwoo D Brenner Alina V AV Tronko Mykola D MD Mabuchi Kiyohiko K Bogdanova Tetiana I TI Hatch Maureen M Zablotska Lydia B LB Tereshchenko Valeriy P VP Ostroumova Evgenia E Bouville André C AC Drozdovitch Vladimir V Chepurny Mykola I MI Kovgan Lina N LN Simon Steven L SL Shpak Victor M VM Likhtarev Ilya A IA

PloS one 20140129 1

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-re ...[more]

PMID: 24489667

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Project description:With time after the Chernobyl accident, the number of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) driven by the BRAFV600E oncoprotein is growing in patients exposed to radiation at a young age. Clinicopathological associations of BRAFV600E in PTCs from patients with internal radiation history have not been sufficiently studied so far. This work analyzes the structural characteristics, proliferative activity, invasive features, clinical information, and dosimetric data in the BRAFV600E-positive and BRAFV600E-negative PTCs from the Ukrainian patients exposed to Chernobyl radiation and treated over 30 years after the accident. The study included 428 PTCs from patients aged 4-49 years at surgery who lived in the six northern regions of Ukraine most contaminated by 131I, were ≤18 years of age at the time of exposure, and were operated on from 1990 to 2017. Immunohistochemical staining for BRAFV600E was performed with the VE1 antibody. The probability of causation (POC) of a tumor due to radiation was determined using an interactive online NIH/NCI software. BRAFV600E was detected in 136/428 (31.8%) PTCs. In comparison with the BRAFV600E-negative PTCs, the BRAFV600E-positivity was associated with older patient age at the accident and at surgery, a longer period of latency, and lower POC. The BRAFV600E-positive PTCs were characterized by smaller tumor size, higher Ki67 labeling index, more frequent oncocytic changes, multifocality, and dominant papillary growth pattern. Tumor invasive features were less frequent in the BRAFV600E-positive PTCs and did not change with POC level. Despite a less aggressive tumor phenotype, BRAFV600E was a risk factor for recurrence, namely radioiodine-refractory (RAI-R) recurrent metastases. Multivariate models of RAI-R included BRAFV600E and/or histopathological parameters closely correlating with BRAFV600E such as tumor size, multifocality, dominant papillary growth pattern, or oncocytic changes. Thus, the BRAFV600E-positive PTCs from patients from a high-risk group for radiogenic thyroid cancer diagnosed in the 30 years after the Chernobyl accident did not display higher invasiveness regardless of POC level, but in view of the prognostic impact of this genetic alteration, knowledge of the BRAF status may be beneficial for middle-aged patients with radiogenic PTC considered for RAI therapy, and suggests more careful follow-up of patients with the BRAFV600E-positive tumors.

Dataset Information

Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident.

Publications

Impact of uncertainties in exposure assessment on estimates of thyroid cancer risk among Ukrainian children and adolescents exposed from the Chernobyl accident.

Similar Datasets

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