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Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores: a cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Early aggressive therapy can reduce the mortality associated with severe sepsis but this relies on prompt recognition, which is hindered by variation among published severity criteria. Our aim was to test the performance of different severity scores in predicting mortality among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis.We anonymously linked routine outcome data to a cohort of prospectively identified adult hospital inpatients with sepsis, and used logistic regression to identify associations between mortality and demographic variables, clinical factors including blood culture results, and six sets of severity criteria. We calculated performance characteristics, including area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), of each set of severity criteria in predicting mortality.Overall mortality was 19.4% (124/640) at 30 days after sepsis onset. In adjusted analysis, older age (odds ratio 5.79 (95% CI 2.87-11.70) for ?80y versus <60y), having been admitted as an emergency (OR 3.91 (1.31-11.70) versus electively), and longer inpatient stay prior to sepsis onset (OR 2.90 (1.41-5.94) for >21d versus <4d), were associated with increased 30 day mortality. Being in a surgical or orthopaedic, versus medical, ward was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.47 (0.27-0.81) and 0.26 (0.11-0.63), respectively). Blood culture results (positive vs. negative) were not significantly association with mortality. All severity scores predicted mortality but performance varied. The CURB65 community-acquired pneumonia severity score had the best performance characteristics (sensitivity 81%, specificity 52%, positive predictive value 29%, negative predictive value 92%, for 30 day mortality), including having the largest AUROC curve (0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.77).The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperformed five other severity scores in predicting risk of death among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis. The utility of the CURB65 score for risk-stratifying patients with sepsis in clinical practice will depend on replicating these findings in a validation cohort including patients with sepsis on admission to hospital.

SUBMITTER: Marwick CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3918178 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores: a cohort study.

Marwick Charis A CA Guthrie Bruce B Pringle Jan Ec JE McLeod Shaun R SR Evans Josie Mm JM Davey Peter G PG

BMC anesthesiology 20140102

<h4>Background</h4>Early aggressive therapy can reduce the mortality associated with severe sepsis but this relies on prompt recognition, which is hindered by variation among published severity criteria. Our aim was to test the performance of different severity scores in predicting mortality among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis.<h4>Methods</h4>We anonymously linked routine outcome data to a cohort of prospectively identified adult hospital inpatients with sepsis, and used logistic r ...[more]

PMID: 24383430

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Project description:The elderly are predisposed to septic arthritis (SA) because of the aging nature and increasing comorbidities. SA may in turn increase the long-term mortality in the geriatric patients; however, it remains unclear. We conducted this prospective nationwide population-based cohort study to clarify this issue.Using Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), we identified 1667 geriatric participants (≥ 65 years) with SA and 16,670 geriatric participants without SA matched at a ratio of 1:10 by age, sex, and index date between 1999 and 2010. A comparison of the long-term mortality between the two cohorts through follow-up until 2011 was performed.Geriatric participants with SA had a significantly increased mortality than those without SA [Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-1.66], particularly the old elderly (≥ 85 years, AHR: 2.12, 95% CI: 1.58-2.84) and males (AHR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.33-1.79). These results were stated after adjustment for osteoarthritis, diabetes, gout, renal disease, liver disease, cancer, rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, alcoholism, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. The increased mortality risk was highest in the first month (AHR: 3.93, 95% CI: 2.94-5.25) and remained increased even after following up for 2-4 years (AHR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.03-1.65). After Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, SA (AHR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.20-1.56), older age (≥ 85 years, AHR: 1.79, 95% CI: 1.59-2.02, 75-84 years, AHR: 1.65, 95% CI: 1.53-1.78), male sex, diabetes, renal disease, liver disease, cancer, and gout were independent mortality predictors. There was no significant difference in the mortality for SA between upper limb affected and lower limb affected.This study delineated that SA significantly increased the long-term mortality in geriatric participants. For the increasing aging population worldwide, strategies for the prevention and treatment of SA and concomitant control of comorbidities are very important.

Project description:BackgroundPneumonia complicated by septic shock is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Classification and regression tree methodology is an intuitive method for predicting clinical outcomes using binary splits. We aimed to improve the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with pneumonia and septic shock using decision tree analysis.MethodsClassification and regression tree models were applied to all patients with pneumonia-associated septic shock in the international, multicenter Cooperative Antimicrobial Therapy of Septic Shock database between 1996 and 2015. The association between clinical factors (time to appropriate antimicrobial therapy, severity of illness) and in-hospital mortality was evaluated. Accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes, sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating curve of the final model was evaluated in training (n = 2111) and testing datasets (n = 2111).ResultsThe study cohort contained 4222 patients, and in-hospital mortality was 51%. The mean time from onset of shock to administration of appropriate antimicrobials was significantly higher for patients who died (17.2 h) compared to those who survived (5.0 h). In the training dataset (n = 2111), a tree model using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score, lactate, age, and time to appropriate antimicrobial therapy yielded accuracy of 73% and area under the receiver operating curve 0.75. The testing dataset (n = 2111) had accuracy of 69% and area under the receiver operating curve 0.72.ConclusionsOverall mortality (51%) in patients with pneumonia complicated by septic shock is high. Increased time to administration of antimicrobial therapy, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II Score, serum lactate, and age were associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Classification and regression tree methodology offers a simple prognostic model with good performance in predicting in-hospital mortality.

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Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores: a cohort study.

Publications

Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores: a cohort study.

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