Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Griffin JT
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3923296 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BACKGROUND:In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended blocking the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum with single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ, target dose 0.25 mg base/kg body weight), without testing for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd), when treating patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria. We sought to develop an age-based SLDPQ regimen that would be suitable for sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS:Using data on the anti-infectivity efficacy and tolerability of primaquine (PQ), the epidemiology of anaemia, and the risks of PQ-induced acute haemolytic anaemia (AHA) and clinically significant anaemia (CSA), we prospectively defined therapeutic-dose ranges of 0.15-0.4 mg PQ base/kg for children aged 1-5 years and 0.15-0.5 mg PQ base/kg for individuals aged ?6 years (therapeutic indices 2.7 and 3.3, respectively). We chose 1.25 mg PQ base for infants aged 6-11 months because they have the highest rate of baseline anaemia and the highest risks of AHA and CSA. We modelled an anthropometric database of 661,979 African individuals aged ?6 months (549,127 healthy individuals, 28,466 malaria patients and 84,386 individuals with other infections/illnesses) by the Box-Cox transformation power exponential and tested PQ doses of 1-15 mg base, selecting dosing groups based on calculated mg/kg PQ doses. RESULTS:From the Box-Cox transformation power exponential model, five age categories were selected: (i) 6-11 months (n?=?39,886, 6.03%), (ii) 1-5 years (n?=?261,036, 45.46%), (iii) 6-9 years (n?=?20,770, 3.14%), (iv) 10-14 years (n?=?12,155, 1.84%) and (v) ?15 years (n?=?328,132, 49.57%) to receive 1.25, 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 15 mg PQ base for corresponding median (1st and 99th centiles) mg/kg PQ base of: (i) 0.16 (0.12-0.25), (ii) 0.21 (0.13-0.37), (iii) 0.25 (0.16-0.38), (iv) 0.26 (0.15-0.38) and (v) 0.27 (0.17-0.40). The proportions of individuals predicted to receive optimal therapeutic PQ doses were: 73.2 (29,180/39,886), 93.7 (244,537/261,036), 99.6 (20,690/20,770), 99.4 (12,086/12,155) and 99.8% (327,620/328,132), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:We plan to test the safety of this age-based dosing regimen in a large randomised placebo-controlled trial (ISRCTN11594437) of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in G6PDd African children aged 0.5?-?11 years. If the regimen is safe and demonstrates adequate pharmacokinetics, it should be used to support malaria elimination.
| S-EPMC5774032 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Malaria transmission is influenced by climate, land use and deliberate interventions. Recent declines have been observed in malaria transmission. Here we show that the African continent has witnessed a long-term decline in the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum from 40% prevalence in the period 1900-1929 to 24% prevalence in the period 2010-2015, a trend that has been interrupted by periods of rapidly increasing or decreasing transmission. The cycles and trend over the past 115 years are inconsistent with explanations in terms of climate or deliberate intervention alone. Previous global initiatives have had minor impacts on malaria transmission, and a historically unprecedented decline has been observed since 2000. However, there has been little change in the high transmission belt that covers large parts of West and Central Africa. Previous efforts to model the changing patterns of P. falciparum transmission intensity in Africa have been limited to the past 15 years or have used maps drawn from historical expert opinions. We provide quantitative data, from 50,424 surveys at 36,966 geocoded locations, that covers 115 years of malaria history in sub-Saharan Africa; inferring from these data to future trends, we would expect continued reductions in malaria transmission, punctuated with resurgences.
| S-EPMC5660624 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum K13-propeller domain have recently been shown to be important determinants of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia. This study investigated the prevalence of K13-propeller polymorphisms across sub-Saharan Africa. A total of 1212 P. falciparum samples collected from 12 countries were sequenced. None of the K13-propeller mutations previously reported in Southeast Asia were found, but 22 unique mutations were detected, of which 7 were nonsynonymous. Allele frequencies ranged between 1% and 3%. Three mutations were observed in >1 country, and the A578S was present in parasites from 5 countries. This study provides the baseline prevalence of K13-propeller mutations in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC4827505 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The most widely used measures of declining burden of malaria across sub-Saharan Africa are predictions from geospatial models. These models apply spatiotemporal autocorrelations and covariates to parasite prevalence data and then use a function of parasite prevalence to predict clinical malaria incidence. We attempted to assess whether trends in malaria cases, based on local surveillance, were similar to those captured by Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) incidence surfaces. METHODS:We undertook a systematic review (PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; ID?=?CRD42019116834) to identify empirical data on clinical malaria in Africa since 2000, where reports covered at least 5 continuous years. The trends in empirical data were then compared with the trends of time-space matched clinical malaria incidence from MAP using the Spearman rank correlation. The correlations (rho) between changes in empirically observed and modelled estimates of clinical malaria were displayed by forest plots and examined by meta-regression. RESULTS:Sixty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria representing 124 sites from 24 African countries. The single most important factor explaining the correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions was the slope of empirically observed data over time (rho?=?-?0.989; 95% CI -?0.998, -?0.939; p?<?0.001), i.e. steeper declines were associated with a stronger correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions. Factors such as quality of study, reported measure of malaria and endemicity were only slightly predictive of such correlations. CONCLUSIONS:In many locations, both local surveillance data and modelled estimates showed declines in malaria burden and hence similar trends. However, there was a weak association between individual surveillance datasets and the modelled predictions where stalling in progress or resurgence of malaria burden was empirically observed. Surveillance data were patchy, indicating a need for improved surveillance to strengthen both empiric reporting and modelled predictions.
| S-EPMC7189714 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A characteristic of Plasmodium falciparum infections is the gradual acquisition of clinical immunity resulting from repeated exposures to the parasite. While the molecular basis of protection against clinical malaria remains unresolved, its effects on epidemiological patterns are well recognized. Accumulating epidemiological data constitute a valuable resource that must be intensively explored and interpreted as to effectively inform control planning.Here we apply a mathematical model to clinical data from eight endemic regions in sub-Saharan Africa. The model provides a quantitative framework within which differences in age distribution of clinical disease are assessed in terms of the parameters underlying transmission. The shorter infectious periods estimated for clinical infections induce a regime of bistability of endemic and malaria-free states in regions of mesoendemic transmission. The two epidemiological states are separated by a threshold that provides a convenient measure for intervention design. Scenarios of eradication and resurgence are simulated.In regions that support mesoendemic transmission, intervention success depends critically on reducing prevalence below a threshold which separates endemic and malaria-free regimes.
| S-EPMC2262141 | biostudies-other
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10484284 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The intensification of malaria control interventions has resulted in its global decline, but it remains a significant public health burden especially in sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). Knowledge on the parasite diversity, its transmission dynamics, mechanisms of adaptation to environmental and interventional pressures could help refine or develop new control and elimination strategies. Critical to this is the accurate assessment of the parasite's genetic diversity and monitoring of genetic markers of anti-malarial resistance across all susceptible populations. Such wide molecular surveillance will require selected tools and approaches from a variety of ever evolving advancements in technology and the changing epidemiology of malaria. The choice of an effective approach for specific endemic settings remains challenging, particularly for countries in sSA with limited access to advanced technologies. This article examines the current strategies and tools for Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity typing and resistance monitoring and proposes how the different tools could be employed in resource-poor settings. Advanced approaches enabling targeted deep sequencing is valued as a sensitive method for assessing drug resistance and parasite diversity but remains out of the reach of most laboratories in sSA due to the high cost of development and maintenance. It is, however, feasible to equip a limited number of laboratories as Centres of Excellence in Africa (CEA), which will receive and process samples from a network of peripheral laboratories in the continent. Cheaper, sensitive and portable real-time PCR methods can be used in peripheral laboratories to pre-screen and select samples for targeted deep sequence or genome wide analyses at these CEAs.
| S-EPMC6595576 | biostudies-other
Project description:There are already 40 cities in Africa with over 1 million inhabitants and the United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that by 2025 over 800 million people will live in urban areas. Recognizing that malaria control can improve the health of the vulnerable and remove a major obstacle to their economic development, the Malaria Knowledge Programme of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the Systemwide Initiative on Malaria and Agriculture convened a multi-sectoral technical consultation on urban malaria in Pretoria, South Africa from 2nd to 4th December, 2004. The aim of the meeting was to identify strategies for the assessment and control of urban malaria. This commentary reflects the discussions held during the meeting and aims to inform researchers and policy makers of the potential for containing and reversing the emerging problem of urban malaria.
| S-EPMC552321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCipargamin (KAE609) is a potent antimalarial in a phase II trial. Here we report efficacy, pharmacokinetics, and resistance marker analysis across a range of cipargamin doses. These were secondary endpoints from a study primarily conducted to assess the hepatic safety of cipargamin (hepatic safety data are reported elsewhere).MethodsThis phase II, multicenter, randomized, open-label, dose-escalation trial was conducted in sub-Saharan Africa in adults with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Cipargamin monotherapy was given as single doses up to 150 mg or up to 50 mg once daily for 3 days, with artemether-lumefantrine as control. Key efficacy endpoints were parasite clearance time (PCT), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-corrected and uncorrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) at 14 and 28 days. Pharmacokinetics and molecular markers of drug resistance were also assessed.ResultsAll single or multiple cipargamin doses ≥50 mg were associated with rapid parasite clearance, with median PCT of 8 hours versus 24 hours for artemether-lumefantrine. PCR-corrected ACPR at 14 and 28 days was >75% and 65%, respectively, for each cipargamin dose. A treatment-emerging mutation in the Pfatp4 gene, G358S, was detected in 65% of treatment failures. Pharmacokinetic parameters were consistent with previous data, and approximately dose proportional.ConclusionsCipargamin, at single doses of 50 to 150 mg, was associated with very rapid parasite clearance, PCR-corrected ACPR at 28 days of >65% in adults with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, and recrudescent parasites frequently harbored a treatment-emerging mutation. Cipargamin will be further developed with a suitable combination partner.Clinical trials registrationClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03334747).
| S-EPMC9155642 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2018, an estimated 228 million malaria cases occurred worldwide with most cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. Scale-up of vector control tools coupled with increased access to diagnosis and effective treatment has resulted in a large decline in malaria prevalence in some areas, but other areas have seen little change. Although interventional studies demonstrate that preventing malaria during pregnancy can reduce the rate of low birth weight (i.e. child's birth weight <2500 g), it remains unknown whether natural changes in parasite transmission and malaria burden can improve birth outcomes.MethodsWe conducted an observational study of the effect of changing malaria burden on low birth weight using data from 18,112 births in 19 countries in sub-Saharan African countries during the years 2000-2015. Specifically, we conducted a difference-in-differences study via a pair-of-pairs matching approach using the fact that some sub-Saharan areas experienced sharp drops in malaria prevalence and some experienced little change.ResultsA malaria prevalence decline from a high rate (Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate in children aged 2-up-to-10 (i.e. PfPR2-10) > 0.4) to a low rate (PfPR2-10 < 0.2) is estimated to reduce the rate of low birth weight by 1.48 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 3.70 percentage points reduction, 0.74 percentage points increase), which is a 17% reduction in the low birth weight rate compared to the average (8.6%) in our study population with observed birth weight records (1.48/8.6 ≈ 17%). When focusing on first pregnancies, a decline in malaria prevalence from high to low is estimated to have a greater impact on the low birth weight rate than for all births: 3.73 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 9.11 percentage points reduction, 1.64 percentage points increase).ConclusionsAlthough the confidence intervals cannot rule out the possibility of no effect at the 95% confidence level, the concurrence between our primary analysis, secondary analyses, and sensitivity analyses, and the magnitude of the effect size, contribute to the weight of the evidence suggesting that declining malaria burden can potentially substantially reduce the low birth weight rate at the community level in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly among firstborns. The novel statistical methodology developed in this article-a pair-of-pairs approach to a difference-in-differences study-could be useful for many settings in which different units are observed at different times.FundingRyan A. Simmons is supported by National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (UL1TR002553). The funder had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
| S-EPMC8279759 | biostudies-literature