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Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

ABSTRACT: Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association.

SUBMITTER: Ionides EL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3935433 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

Ionides Edward L EL Wang Zhen Z Tapia Granados José A JA

The annals of applied statistics 20131001 3

Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used i ...[more]

PMID: 24587843

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Project description:Single and double exponential models fitted to step length symmetry series are used to evaluate the timecourse of adaptation and de-adaptation in instrumented split-belt treadmill tasks. Whilst the nonlinear regression literature has developed substantially over time, the split-belt treadmill training literature has not been fully utilising the fruits of these developments. In this research area, the current methods of model fitting and evaluation have three significant limitations: (i) optimisation algorithms that are used for model fitting require a good initial guess for regression parameters; (ii) the coefficient of determination (R2) is used for comparing and evaluating models, yet it is considered to be an inadequate measure of fit for nonlinear regression; and, (iii) inference is based on comparison of the confidence intervals for the regression parameters that are obtained under the untested assumption that the nonlinear model has a good linear approximation. In this research, we propose a transformed set of parameters with a common language interpretation that is relevant to split-belt treadmill training for both the single and double exponential models. We propose parameter bounds for the exponential models which allow the use of particle swarm optimisation for model fitting without an initial guess for the regression parameters. For model evaluation and comparison, we propose the use of residual plots and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). A method for obtaining confidence intervals that does not require the assumption of a good linear approximation is also suggested. A set of MATLAB (MathWorks, Inc., Natick, MA, USA) functions developed in order to apply these methods are also presented. Single and double exponential models are fitted to both the group-averaged and participant step length symmetry series in an experimental dataset generating new insights into split-belt treadmill training. The proposed methods may be useful for research involving analysis of gait symmetry with instrumented split-belt treadmills. Moreover, the demonstration of the suggested statistical methods on an experimental dataset may help the uptake of these methods by a wider community of researchers that are interested in timecourse of motor training.

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Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

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Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

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