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Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

ABSTRACT: Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.

SUBMITTER: Georgescu M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3939866 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

Georgescu Matei M Morefield Philip E PE Bierwagen Britta G BG Weaver Christopher P CP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20140210 8

Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by globa ...[more]

PMID: 24516126

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Project description:IntroductionNegative attitudes and beliefs about low back pain (LBP) can lead to reduced function and activity and consequently disability. One self-report measure that can be used to assess these negative attitudes and beliefs and to determine their predictive nature is the Back Beliefs Questionnaire (BBQ). This study aimed to translate and cross-culturally adapt the BBQ into Hausa and assess its psychometric properties in mixed urban and rural Nigerian populations with chronic LBP.MethodsThe BBQ was translated and cross-culturally adapted into Hausa (Hausa-BBQ) according to established guidelines. To assess psychometric properties, a consecutive sample of 200 patients with chronic LBP recruited from urban and rural clinics of Nigeria completed the questionnaire along with measures of fear-avoidance beliefs, pain catastrophizing, functional disability, physical and mental health, and pain. One hundred of the 200 patients completed the questionnaire twice at an interval of 7-14 days to assess test-retest reliability. Internal construct validity was assessed using exploratory factor analysis, and external construct validity was assessed by examining convergent, divergent, and known-groups validity. Reliability was assessed by calculating internal consistency (Cronbach's α), intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change at 95% confidence interval (MDC95), and limits of agreement using Bland-Altman plots. Reliability (ICC, SEM and MDC95) was also assessed separately for rural and urban subgroups.ResultsThe factor analysis revealed a four-factor solution explaining 58.9% of the total variance with the first factor explaining 27.1%. The nine scoring items loaded on the first factor hence supporting a unidimensional scale. The convergent and divergent validity were supported as 85% (6:7) of the predefined hypotheses were confirmed. Known-groups comparison showed that the questionnaire discriminated well for those who differed in education (p < 0.05), but not in age (p > 0.05). The internal consistency and ICC (α = 0.79; ICC = 0.91) were adequate, with minimal SEM and MDC95 (1.9 and 5.2, respectively). The limits of agreements were -5.11 to 5.71. The ICC, SEM and MDC95 for the urban and rural subgroups were comparable to those obtained for the overall population.ConclusionsThe Hausa-BBQ was successfully adapted and psychometrically sound in terms of internal and external construct validity, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability in mixed urban and rural Hausa-speaking populations with chronic LBP. The questionnaire can be used to detect and categorize specific attitudes and beliefs about back pain in Hausa culture to prevent or reduce potential disability due to LBP.

Project description:Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.

Dataset Information

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

Publications

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.

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