Dataset Information

Estimation of the expected change in domestic human salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010, given a hypothetical relaxation of the current salmonella control programme.

ABSTRACT: The Swedish salmonella control programme has been very successful in reducing the number of salmonella infections in both humans and animals. However, the costs for the control have increased and it has thus been questioned if the control measures could be relaxed and, if so, what effect this would have on human and animal health. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the expected effects on human health of a relaxation of the Swedish control i.e. a substitution of the present programme with a programme similar to the ones present in Denmark or The Netherlands. Data from the year 2010 was used to illustrate this. It was assumed that the domestic exposure to salmonella would then become the same in Sweden as it was in Denmark or the Netherlands in that year. As official statistics on the number of reported salmonella cases are not comparable across European countries, data from five different sources were used to try to obtain comparable estimates of the domestic salmonella exposure in the three countries. The study shows that the number of reported domestic human salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010 would increase by approximately 900 to 2400 cases in the Danish scenarios and 6400 to 8400 in the Dutch scenarios. Although uncertainty exists, it was concluded that the number of reported domestic salmonella cases would increase substantially in Sweden in case of a relaxation of the current control programme.

SUBMITTER: Wahlstrom H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3940613 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of the expected change in domestic human salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010, given a hypothetical relaxation of the current salmonella control programme.

Wahlström Helene H Sternberg Lewerin Susanna S Sundström Kristian K Ivarsson Sofie S

PloS one 20140303 3

The Swedish salmonella control programme has been very successful in reducing the number of salmonella infections in both humans and animals. However, the costs for the control have increased and it has thus been questioned if the control measures could be relaxed and, if so, what effect this would have on human and animal health. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the expected effects on human health of a relaxation of the Swedish control i.e. a substitution of the present programme wi ...[more]

PMID: 24594989

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Project description:ImportanceIncome has a negative, nonlinear association with all-cause mortality. Income support policies may prevent deaths among low-income populations by raising their incomes.ObjectiveTo estimate the deaths that could be averted among working-age adults age 18 to 64 years with hypothetical income support policies in the US.Design setting and populationAn open, multicohort life-table model was developed that simulated working-age adults age 18 to 64 years in the US over 5 to 40 years. Publicly available household income data and previous estimates of the income-mortality association were used to generate mortality rates by income group. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and various model assumptions on the findings.InterventionsIn addition to a no-intervention scenario, 4 hypothetical income support policies were modeled: universal basic income, modified LIFT Act, poverty alleviation, and negative income tax.Main outcome and measuresThe main outcome was the number of deaths averted, which was calculated by subtracting the number of deaths experienced in the no-intervention scenario from the number of deaths experienced with the various income support policies.ResultsBase-case assumptions used average mortality rates by age, sex, and income group, a 20-year time horizon, and a 3-year lag time. Universal basic income worth $12 000 per year per individual was estimated to avert the most deaths among working-age adults (42 000-104 000 per year), followed by a negative income tax that guaranteed an income of 133% of the federal poverty level (19 000-67 000 per year). A modified LIFT Act that provided $6000 to individuals with annual household incomes less than $100 000 was estimated to avert 17 000 to 52 000 deaths per year. A targeted approach that alleviated poverty was estimated to prevent 12 000 to 32 000 deaths among the lowest-income, working-age adult population. Results were most sensitive to several inputs and assumptions, primarily the income-based mortality rates, analytic time horizon, and assumed time lag between when a policy was implemented and when individuals experienced the mortality benefit of having higher incomes.Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study, 4 hypothetical income support policies were estimated to avert thousands of deaths among working-age US adults every year. Additional research is needed to understand the true association of income gains with mortality. Discussions about the costs and benefits of income support policies should include potential gains in health.

Dataset Information

Estimation of the expected change in domestic human salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010, given a hypothetical relaxation of the current salmonella control programme.

Publications

Estimation of the expected change in domestic human salmonella cases in Sweden in 2010, given a hypothetical relaxation of the current salmonella control programme.

Similar Datasets

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