Dataset Information

Prediction of tumour response induced by chemotherapy using modelling of CA-125 kinetics in recurrent ovarian cancer patients.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The main objective of the present study was to establish the relationships between CA-125 kinetics and tumour size changes during treatment.

Methods

The data from the CALYPSO-randomised phase III trial, comparing two platinum-based regimens in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients, was randomly split into a 'learning data set' to estimate model parameters and a 'validation data set' to validate model performances. A kinetic-pharmacodynamic semi-mechanistic model was built to describe tumour size and CA-125 kinetics during chemotherapy. The ability of the model to predict tumour response induced by chemotherapy, based on CA-125 values, was assessed.

Results

Data from 535 ROC patients were used to model CA-125 kinetics and tumour size changes during the first 513 days after treatment initiation. Using the validated model, we could predict with accuracy the tumour size changes induced by chemotherapy based on the baseline imaging assessment and longitudinal CA-125 values (mean prediction error: 0.3%, mean absolute prediction error: 10.6%).

Conclusions

Using a semi-mechanistic model, the dynamic relationships between tumour size changes and CA-125 kinetics induced by chemotherapy were established in ROC patients. A modelling approach allowed CA-125 to be assessed as a biomarker for tumour size dynamics, to predict treatment efficacy for research and clinical purposes.

SUBMITTER: Wilbaux M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3960627 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of tumour response induced by chemotherapy using modelling of CA-125 kinetics in recurrent ovarian cancer patients.

Wilbaux M M Hénin E E Oza A A Colomban O O Pujade-Lauraine E E Freyer G G Tod M M You B B

British journal of cancer 20140220 6

<h4>Background</h4>The main objective of the present study was to establish the relationships between CA-125 kinetics and tumour size changes during treatment.<h4>Methods</h4>The data from the CALYPSO-randomised phase III trial, comparing two platinum-based regimens in recurrent ovarian cancer (ROC) patients, was randomly split into a 'learning data set' to estimate model parameters and a 'validation data set' to validate model performances. A kinetic-pharmacodynamic semi-mechanistic model was b ...[more]

PMID: 24556626

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Project description:BackgroundPARP inhibitors (PARPi) have revolutionized the management of advanced ovarian carcinoma, and were investigated as forefront treatment in recurrent disease. The objective was to explore if mathematical modeling of the early longitudinal CA-125 kinetics could be used as a pragmatic indicator of the subsequent rucaparib efficacy, like it is for platinum-based chemotherapy.MethodsThe datasets of ARIEL2 and Study 10 involving recurrent HGOC patients treated with rucaparib were retrospectively investigated. The same strategy as those successfully developed for platinum chemotherapy, based on CA-125 ELIMination rate constant K (KELIM™), was implemented. Individual values of rucaparib-adjusted KELIM (KELIM-PARP) were estimated based on the longitudinal CA-125 kinetics during the first 100 treatment days, and then scored as favorable (KELIM-PARP ≥1.0) or unfavorable (KELIM-PARP <1.0). The prognostic value of KELIM-PARP regarding treatment efficacy (radiological response, and progression-free survival (PFS)) was assessed using univariable/multivariable analyses, with respect to platinum-sensitivity and homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) status.FindingsThe data from 476 patients were assessed. The CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during the first 100-treatment days could be accurately assessed using the KELIM-PARP model. In patients with platinum-sensitive diseases, BRCA mutational status KELIM-PARP score and were associated with subsequent complete/partial radiological responses (KELIM-PARP: odds-ratio = 2.81, 95% CI 1.86-4.52), and PFS (KELIM-PARP: hazard-ratio = 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91). The patients with BRCA-wild type cancer and favorable KELIM-PARP experienced long PFS with rucaparib regardless of HRD. In platinum-resistant disease patients, KELIM-PARP was associated with subsequent radiological response (odds-ratio = 2.80, 95% CI 1.82-4.72).InterpretationThis proof-of-concept study confirms the early CA-125 longitudinal kinetics during rucaparib in recurrent HGOC patients are assessable by mathematical modeling, to generate individual a KELIM-PARP score associated with the subsequent efficacy. This pragmatic strategy might be useful for selecting the patients for PARPi-based combination regimens, when identifying efficacy biomarker is challenging. Further assessment of this hypothesis is warranted.FundingThe present study was supported by Clovis Oncology with a grant to academic research association.

Project description:ImportanceA 2009 randomized clinical trial demonstrated that using cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) tests for routine surveillance in ovarian cancer increases the use of chemotherapy and decreases patients' quality of life without improving survival, compared with clinical observation. The Society of Gynecologic Oncology guidelines categorize CA-125 testing as optional and discourage the use of radiographic imaging for routine surveillance. To date, few studies have examined the use of CA-125 tests in clinical practice.ObjectivesTo examine the use of CA-125 tests and computed tomographic (CT) scans in clinical practice before and after the 2009 randomized clinical trial and to estimate the economic effect of surveillance testing.Design, setting, and participantsA prospective cohort of 1241 women with ovarian cancer in clinical remission after completion of primary cytoreductive surgery and chemotherapy at 6 National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centers between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2011, was followed up through December 31, 2012, to study the use of CA-125 tests and CT scans before and after 2009. Data analysis was conducted from April 9, 2014, to March 28, 2016.Main outcomes and measuresThe use of CA-125 tests and CT scans before and after 2009. Secondary outcomes included the time from CA-125 markers doubling to retreatment among women who experienced a rise in CA-125 markers before and after 2009, and the costs associated with surveillance testing using 2015 Medicare reimbursement rates.ResultsAmong 1241 women (mean [SD] age 59 [12] years; 1112 white [89.6%]), the use of CA-125 testing and CT scans was similar during the study period. During 12 months of surveillance, the cumulative incidence of patients undergoing 3 or more CA-125 tests was 86% in 2004-2009 vs 91% in 2010-2012 (P = .95), and the cumulative incidence of patients undergoing more than 1 CT scan was 81% in 2004-2009 vs 78% in 2010-2012 (P = .50). Among women whose CA-125 markers doubled (n = 511), there was no significant difference in the time to retreatment with chemotherapy before and after 2009 (median, 2.8 vs 3.5 months; P = .40). During a 12-month period, there was a mean of 4.6 CA-125 tests and 1.7 CT scans performed per patient, resulting in a US population surveillance cost estimate of $1 999 029 per year for CA-125 tests alone and $16 194 647 per year with CT scans added.Conclusions and relevanceCA-125 tests and CT scans are still routinely used for surveillance testing in patients with ovarian cancer, although their benefit has not been proven and their use may have significant implications for patients' quality of life as well as costs.

Dataset Information

Prediction of tumour response induced by chemotherapy using modelling of CA-125 kinetics in recurrent ovarian cancer patients.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of tumour response induced by chemotherapy using modelling of CA-125 kinetics in recurrent ovarian cancer patients.

Similar Datasets

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