Dataset Information

Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.

Methods

We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.

Results

Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.

Conclusions

This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

SUBMITTER: Kim SB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3963840 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

Kim Sun Bean SB Yoon Myoungho M Ku Nam Su NS Kim Min Hyung MH Song Je Eun JE Ahn Jin Young JY Jeong Su Jin SJ Kim Changsoo C Kwon Hee-Dae HD Lee Jeehyun J Smith Davey M DM Choi Jun Yong JY

PloS one 20140324 3

<h4>Background</h4>Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea ov ...[more]

PMID: 24662776

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Project description:IntroductionOver one hundred implementation studies of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are completed, underway or planned. We synthesized evidence from these studies to inform mathematical modelling of the prevention cascade for oral and long-acting PrEP in the setting of western Kenya, one of the world's most heavily HIV-affected regions.MethodsWe incorporated steps of the PrEP prevention cascade - uptake, adherence, retention and re-engagement after discontinuation - into EMOD-HIV, an open-source transmission model calibrated to the demography and HIV epidemic patterns of western Kenya. Early PrEP implementation research from East Africa was used to parameterize prevention cascades for oral PrEP as currently implemented, delivery innovations for oral PrEP, and future long-acting PrEP. We compared infections averted by PrEP at the population level for different cascade assumptions and sub-populations on PrEP. Analyses were conducted over the 2020 to 2040 time horizon, with additional sensitivity analyses for the time horizon of analysis and the time when long-acting PrEP becomes available.ResultsThe maximum impact of oral PrEP diminished by over 98% across all prevention cascades, with the exception of long-acting PrEP under optimistic assumptions about uptake and re-engagement after discontinuation. Long-acting PrEP had the highest population-level impact, even after accounting for possible delays in product availability, primarily because its effectiveness does not depend on drug adherence. Retention was the most significant cascade step reducing the potential impact of long-acting PrEP. These results were robust to assumptions about the sub-populations receiving PrEP, but were highly influenced by assumptions about re-initiation of PrEP after discontinuation, about which evidence was sparse.ConclusionsImplementation challenges along the prevention cascade compound to diminish the population-level impact of oral PrEP. Long-acting PrEP is expected to be less impacted by user uptake and adherence, but it is instead dependent on product availability in the short term and retention in the long term. To maximize the impact of long-acting PrEP, ensuring timely product approval and rollout is critical. Research is needed on strategies to improve retention and patterns of PrEP re-initiation.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Existing biomedical HIV prevention options, though highly effective, present substantial adherence challenges. End-user input on early-stage design of new HIV prevention approaches is critical to yielding products that achieve high uptake and adherence. The iPrevent Study examined youths' preferences for key attributes of long-acting Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), with a focus on characteristics pertinent to product delivery alongside key modifiable product attributes. METHODS:A discrete choice experiment was conducted with female and male youth aged 18 to 24 in two high-density communities in Cape Town, South Africa during the period July 2017 to January 2019. Sexually active, PrEP-naïve youth were recruited using population-based sampling; targeted sampling was used to enrol men who have sex with men (MSM). In a series of nine questions, participants were asked to choose between two hypothetical products composed of five attributes (form, dosing frequency, access, pain, insertion site). We used a random-parameters logit model to estimate preference weights and trade-offs among product alternatives. We examined differences across three subgroups: females, men who have sex with only women (MSW) and MSM. RESULTS:A total of 807 participants (401 female) were enrolled with a median age of 21 years. Males included 190 MSM. Most youth had tested for HIV (95%) and reported being HIV-negative (91%). Across all groups, duration of effectiveness was the most important attribute, with strong preference for less frequent dosing. Injections were favoured over implants, though these preferences were strongest for females and MSM. Females preferred a product offered at a health clinic and disliked pharmacy access; all groups preferred the arm as the insertion site. Youth were willing to trade their preferred product form for longer duration. CONCLUSIONS:Youth indicated strong preferences for longer duration products. Each attribute nonetheless influenced preferences, offering insight into trade-offs that inform long-acting PrEP development.

Dataset Information

Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

Similar Datasets

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